Ukraine

What’s the truth about Prighozin’s deal with Lukashenko?

What to make of the strange Prigozhin interlude? The putsch that was and wasn’t. The facts are simple. After an alleged attack on Wagner troops by the Russian army ordered by defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov, Prigozhin’s private army of 25,000 took control of the garrison town Rostov-on-Don and its airfield at 7.30am on 24 June. Shoigu fled the town and Gerasimov hid. A warrant for Prighozin’s arrest was issued in Moscow, as he quickly unleashed a ‘march of justice’ on the capital. The Kremlin doubled down and rolled out Putin on TV, who called the Wagner mercenaries’ actions ‘armed mutiny’, ‘a stab in

Mark Galeotti

Putin faces challenge from his own creation

It took a characteristically long time for Vladimir Putin to respond to the coup-that-dare-not-speak-its-name launched by Yevgeny Prigozhin, but when his statement came, it was steeped in bitterness. And no wonder, for Prigozhin was essentially Putin’s creation, and we know that Putin’s greatest venom is reserved for those he considers traitors. An ex-con who moved into the hot dog business and then finer dining options, Prigozhin’s early restaurant business in 1990s St Petersburg was given a dramatic boost by the patronage of the deputy mayor, one Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin’s Concord business group expanded dramatically, moving first into supermarkets, then everything from real estate to advertising, but almost always on the

Svitlana Morenets

Exiled Belarusian opposition calls for army to rise against Moscow

With Vladimir Putin facing armed insurrection from Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, the exiled opposition in Belarus has called for its military to assert independence from Russia. Valery Sakhashchyk, Opposition defence spokesman, has released a video where he addressed his countrymen and the 38th Airborne Brigade, which he once commanded and is regarded as still loyal to him. His video (and my translation) are below: ‘All thinking people understood that the Russian Federation was built on lies, corruption and lawlessness and that it will fall apart sooner or later. We are witnessing the beginning of the active phase of this process. We do not know for sure what will happen tomorrow. Perhaps

This failed coup will be just the beginning

Yevgeny Prigozhin has just exposed the full extent of Vladimir Putin’s weakness. In less than 24 hours, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made extraordinary progress – taking control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Miliary District, and posing the most serious challenge to Putin’s leadership. The president did not look all-powerful, but unable to control Prigozhin as he said his 25,000 troops were willing to march on Moscow. Back on 9 May, when Prigozhin’s challenge to Vladimir Putin first became evident, I argued in The Spectator against the idea that Putin was ‘in charge’ of the situation. My analysis was based on

Russia’s sexual health crisis just got militarised

As Ukraine pushes forward its long-anticipated counteroffensive, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu seems more concerned with reeling in his institutional rivals, not least the wildcard Wagner group. But internecine institutional tensions are not the only affliction plaguing Russian occupation forces. As temperatures rise and the Ukrainians press the frontline, infectious diseases remain another challenge for Russian forces. In Wagner’s assault on Bakhmut, the self-proclaimed ‘most powerful army in the world’ made a slow, eight-month advance and suffered soaring casualties, of which 90 per cent were reportedly prisoner recruits. One in five of the 50,000 Wagner prisoner recruits who made up the bulk of their assault on Bakhmut were HIV positive – and a staggering 80 per cent

Mark Galeotti

Putin is lining up a lengthy list of scapegoats for his war

Lately Vladimir Putin has been strikingly unwilling to subject himself to any serious debate about his war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, he came the closest yet, spending more than two hours talking to war correspondents working for either the state media or nationalist social media channels. It was hardly an inquisition, but there were some interesting insights into his thinking to be gleaned. Despite the clear evidence of a steady contraction in the Kremlin’s aspirations and expectations from the original intent to conquer the whole of Ukraine, he refused to accept that the goals of the ‘special military operation’ had changed in any way. Rather, he asserted, that although they

Putin’s anti-western oil alliance is coming unstuck

As Russia frantically attempts to hold on to its territorial gains in the face of the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, there are early signs that it is also failing to retain its diplomatic and foreign policy advances. The anti-Western energy alliances it had constructed around the world with many of the leading oil and gas producers, which had endured despite the invasion, are beginning to fracture. Its attempts to shutdown competitors to Russian oil and gas have proved futile. It all went wrong so quickly for Russia. Back in 2016, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expanded to include Russia as part of OPEC+. The deal, painstakingly brokered by Saudi

Could a backdoor deal end the Ukraine war?

As the second world war entered its final months, Anglo-American forces advanced into Nazi Germany to finish off Hitler’s Reich. In the East, the Red Army attacked up the Danube toward Vienna. Meanwhile, at the Yalta conference in February 1945, Stalin moved to cement his post-war political control over Eastern and central Europe. Germany’s defeat was imminent, but western leaders began to worry about how much Stalin’s forces would seize before the final surrender.  As Russia continues to endure heavy casualties in Ukraine, we’re in a similar predicament today. The war shows no signs of ending any time soon – and casualties continue to mount on both sides. But might

Mark Galeotti

Will Putin manage to spin Kyiv’s counter-offensive as a victory?

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has duly started and, needless to say, there is a rush to judgement. It is going to play out over the coming weeks, even months, though, and at present we are still working off partial and often deceptive information. But, while there is relatively little one can say about the events unfolding on the battlefield, there is more to be said about the way they are being spun. After weeks of diversionary actions and then days of feints and probes, the fighting has begun in earnest. It is focused on the rubbled ruins of what were once Bakhmut, the towns of Avdiivka and Marinka towards the city

The Kakhovka dam and the cheapness of western rhetoric

Following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine, politicians in the West have followed the familiar dance of condemnation. ‘If it’s intentional,’ said PM Rishi Sunak, it would be ‘the largest attack on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine since the start of the war’ and represent ‘new lows’ in Russian aggression. France’s President Macron described it as ‘an atrocious act, which is endangering populations.’ Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, talked about the importance of continuing to ‘support Ukraine for as long as necessary’, while the EU spluttered that ‘attacks on critical civilian infrastructure may amount to war crimes.’ If it’s proved beyond doubt that Russia is culpable for the

Charles Moore

Why Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam

When I first heard that the Russians had blown up the Kakhovka dam, I assumed that this was an effective tactic to frustrate the Ukrainian counteroffensive. It will surely slow it. But a Ukrainian friend raises an additional possibility – that these are the scorched-earth tactics the Germans used in much the same places 80 years ago. Writing from Kyiv, she quotes a letter from Himmler to the SS commander in Ukraine in September 1943: ‘It is necessary to make sure that when retreating from Ukraine, not a single person, not a single animal, not a single gram of grain, not a single metre of railway track is there, so

My hope for Ukraine

Kyiv When Winston Churchill visited bomb sites during the Blitz, the most common sentiment he heard was, ‘We can take it!’, followed closely by ‘Give it ’em back!’. That emotion is very evident in Kyiv, where Ukrainians are understandably nonplussed at opposition in some British newspapers like the Times to their drone attacks on Moscow. They point out that they are attacking military targets there, unlike Russia’s terror attacks on civilians. I was in Kyiv as part of General David Petraeus’s delegation to a conference organised by the Cipher Brief, a national security-focused media organisation. He and I are publishing a book entitled Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare From 1945

Svitlana Morenets

Key Ukrainian dam destroyed as counter-offensive begins

Hours after the Ukrainian army finally launched its long-awaited counter-offensive, the Nova Kakhovka dam has been blown up – which Zelensky blamed on ‘Russian terrorists’. It belongs to the fifth largest hydroelectric plant in Ukraine, in the occupied part of the Kherson region, which was completely destroyed in the explosion. The flooding has been immediate: more than 80 settlements are in danger (with 16,000 people at risk) including Kherson itself. Kyiv has started the evacuation of the villages and towns located downstream of the Dnipro river. Whether Moscow will do the same for the people it now claims as Russian citizens remains to be seen.  As expected, Russia has denied

The haunting words of Russia’s jailed Putin opponents

How many memorable quotes has the Russia-Ukraine war produced so far? Along with Snake Island’s defiant ‘F*** you Russian warship’, we’ve had president Zelensky’s refusal to leave Kyiv at the beginning of the war with the words: ‘I need ammunition, not a ride.’ We also have his ‘Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to lead you to victory’ and his ‘No one’s going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians’, though these are perhaps less interesting; the first a bit like something from a Disney poster (two kittens find their way home across the desert), the second awkwardly conjuring up memories of the Rocky films. Better,

Mark Galeotti

Russia flounders as Kyiv gears up for its counter-offensive

According to Moscow, Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive has begun, and has begun badly for Kyiv. Of course, we need to treat the Russian account with all necessary scepticism, but the evidence is that the droney, phony war stage of this campaign season is ending and the real fighting is beginning. The unverified Russian claim is that Kyiv launched a ‘large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction’, which was beaten back at the cost of some 250 Ukrainian casualties and the loss of a full 16 tanks and 24 other armoured vehicles. Even by the Russian account, this attack comprised just six mechanised and two tank

Svitlana Morenets

Ukrainians are worried about the state of their bomb shelters

Russia fired more than 576 missiles and drones against Ukraine last month; Kyiv was shelled two days in three. Ukrainian air defence works smoothly, shooting down nearly 90 per cent of missiles – but even a successful intercept can lead to debris, causing death. This happened yesterday, in a case that is causing a national scandal. As the siren sounded over Kyiv, a man, his wife and his daughter headed with their neighbours to their shelter in Desnianskyi district – only to find it locked. The man, known as Yaroslav, ran to find someone to open it up. ‘People knocked and knocked again for a very long time. And no

Charles Moore

A dispatch from Ukraine

Last week, I visited Ukraine – Lviv, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk. Impressions crowded in. Here are a few: When the Russians attacked Kharkiv last year, they strafed a Holocaust memorial on the way into town. It is particularly poignant to see the monument’s large seven-branch candlestick reduced to five branches. Across the road is Kharkiv’s vast municipal cemetery. The war dead are immediately visible among the acres of graves. They lie together, in a square. Above each tomb flutters the Ukrainian flag, as if the dead are mustered for battle. I counted more than a thousand of them, and I am afraid the numbers are fast growing elsewhere. That night, I

Russian children are being groomed for the war in Ukraine

As we pass the 15-month mark of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it’s clear the Putin government is in a fix. It cannot win this war nor afford to lose or stop it. But with another mobilisation politically risky and tens of thousands of Russian citizens now fallen on the battlefield, it’s evident they will need all the volunteers they can lay their hands on.   There is a problem facing the regime: the war itself is significantly less popular with the young in Russia than with the middle-aged and elderly. Over half the 55+ age-group in the country support the current war, while for 18- to 24-year-olds the figure falls to 26 per cent.

William Nattrass

Czech Foreign Minister: Ukraine needs to ‘transform’ before it can join the EU

It doesn’t take long for visitors to Prague to figure out how the locals feel about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fifteen months since the war started, yellow and blue flags still seem to flutter in almost every city centre street.   The current Czech government – an ideologically varied five-party coalition united by its pro-EU and pro-western outlook – has played its part in supporting Ukraine’s successful war effort. As a proportion of GDP, Czech military aid to Ukraine has been among the most generous in the world. And when I meet Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, who is set to meet UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly this week, he is unequivocal

‘I’m a singer, not a politician’: An interview with Ukraine’s Eurovision winner Jamala

Tucked in the margins of the recent Eurovision Song Contest was Jamala’s 30-second cameo of 1944, her winning song from 2016. Recently ranked third by The Guardian in the all-time list of Eurovision winners, her song almost didn’t make it to the contest when Russia tried to have it banned. Jamala’s lyrics referred to Stalin’s ethnic cleansing of Crimean Tatars, which took place over just three days in May 1944, but Russian politicians alleged they were thinly disguised to refer to the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Whatever the real meaning, I doubt there can have been a more personal song in the history of Eurovision, not least because Jamala’s great-grandmother