Money

In all the recent economic chaos, it’s been easy to overlook one of the most important factors contributing to the cost-of-living crisis: inflation. But this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics brings it back into focus, as CPI inflation rose back into double digits in September: now at 10.1 per cent on the year, compared to 9.9 per cent in August. Another uplift was expected, but inflation has still risen higher than the broad consensus of 10 per cent. A weak pound hasn’t helped: sterling’s plunge against the dollar over the past few months has increased the costs of importing goods, especially food, which according to the ONS

Is low unemployment causing us more problems than we realise? The suggestion might seem absurd, offensive even. It’s reminiscent of the days of Mrs Thatcher’s supposedly ‘cruel’ monetarism, when we had three million unemployed. Some on the fringes liked to argue that unemployment was good for the economy because it made people work harder, being fearful for their jobs. Mass redundancies would not, of course, help the economy now or at any other time. If a million people were to lose their jobs, as happened in the early 1980s, that would be a million households suffering a collapse in the spending power. As well as a human tragedy, it would

Jeremy Hunt set out at the start of the weekend with one goal in mind: that when the gilt markets reopened on Monday, the cost of government borrowing would not surge further. Ideally, it would start to fall. In this sense, it’s been a successful day for the new Chancellor. The Treasury’s early morning update that a major fiscal announcement was about to be announced saw gilt yields start to drop when markets opened at 8 a.m. After Hunt’s overhaul of the mini-Budget – including the surprising decision to suspend the 1p cut to the basic rate of tax ‘indefinitely’ – they fell even further. After starting the day at

After two major U-turns over last month’s mini-Budget and the sacking of a chancellor, what’s left of Liz Truss’s economic agenda? Parts of it remain intact. But it’s now shaping up to be significantly different from what the Prime Minister intended when she entered Downing Street. The key assumption behind Trussonomics as it was developed during the leadership race was that the markets would be delighted to lend to the government, on the cheap, to see through its tax-cutting, growth-stimulating agenda. That assumption was quickly killed off after former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sat down from presenting his mini-Budget, and the cost paid by governments to borrow began to soar. It

The mini-Budget was a spending spree. The ‘medium-term fiscal plan’ was meant to explain the funding. But what exactly is going to be in it?  Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng were thought to have (finally) come to terms with the need to address the need for some restraint, after their mini-Budget led to market chaos which is yet to settle. Their fiscal statement – in other words, how they would fund their tax cuts – was moved forward by almost a month, to 31 October. Its contents were thought to include some major spending cuts, in a bid to convince markets that fiscal discipline still guides the Tory party. If there are

Speculation has been growing that the Bank of England might announce an extension of its emergency gilt-buying programme which is set to end on Friday. Despite the Treasury moving forward its ‘medium-term fiscal plan’ announcements from November to the end of this month, gilt yields have been rising yet again this week in the lead-up to the end of the scheme. It seemed likely that the Bank’s gilt-buying programme might be extended for another two weeks as a result, in order to buy time before the Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement on 31 October. But tonight Andrew Bailey put that speculation to bed. Speaking at the Institute of International Finance in Washington DC, the

Production will be cut. Supplies to the rest of the world will be curbed. And inflation will rise just a little bit higher. No one ever expected the oil-cartel Opec(+), led by Saudi Arabia, to be friendly to the West, or to help out when it was needed. Even so, its decision this week to effectively side with Russia, and to make the energy crisis even worse, may quickly backfire. In reality, Opec was already in long-term decline. Picking a fight with the US will just make that worse. It was certainly the kind of news the energy markets didn’t need. Just as it was getting over the loss of Russia’s crucial

Liz Truss joins other European leaders in Prague today at the first meeting of the European Political Community. Truss’s presence is sensible, a reminder of Britain’s point that it left the EU, not Europe as a whole. It should also help relations with Emmanuel Macron given how much he has invested in this project. One of the subjects discussed will be energy. The conversation will focus on Putin’s weaponisation of energy and how to keep the lights on this winter. But the anti-Russian alliance has suffered a blow after the news that the Opec+ countries, which include Saudi Arabia and Russia, are going to cut oil production by two million

When Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng entered Downing Street, laser focus was not only applied to them, but also to the free market think tanks they had worked with over the years. This evening, Kwarteng paid a visit to two of them, as the Institute of Economic Affairs and The Taxpayers’ Alliance hosted the Chancellor at Conservative party conference for one-on-one conversations. Similar to his speech yesterday, Kwarteng used the opportunity to try to take some heat out of his mini-Budget. When asked if market reaction was part of the Treasury orthodoxy he and Truss had been taking aim against for weeks, he shook his head and pointed to the