Money

On the surface, the UK’s economic recovery appears to be on track. The Office for National Statistics revealed this morning that retail sales were up 0.8 per cent last month, beating expectations of a 0.5 per cent rise. Consumer confidence and the number of people heading back to the shops continues to rise, with the proportion of online retail sales falling to 27.3 per cent. This is substantially higher, however, than the pre-Covid level of just under 20 per cent. Non-food stores saw the biggest sales increase – 4.2 per cent – boosted, in part, by early Christmas sales. Toys, clothes and sports equipment all saw increases. Again, this is

Inflation is back, and while some people continue to cling to the idea that its resurgence is a temporary phenomenon, today’s figures further stamp out that optimism. Consumer inflation was up to 4.2 per cent in the year to October, a surge from just over 3 per cent the month before. This takes inflation to its highest level since 2011, with prices only set to rise further heading into 2022. Why has the Bank been so insistent about the temporary nature of this round of inflation? Much of the rise is due to increasing energy costs, which were always expected to worsen this winter: global shortages continue to bite as the

Could flexible working hurt women’s careers? That’s the view of the Bank of England’s Catherine Mann, who fears it could open ‘two tracks’ and widen the ‘gender gap’. If that wasn’t bad enough, Scottish Widows tells us that because of lower pay and longer life expectancies young women ‘must save an extra £185,000 to reach the same retirement income as men’. This week, we will inevitably hear the baseless assertion that women are working ‘for free’ until the end of December. This Thursday, we’ll also hear the Fawcett Society make its annual fuss over ‘Equal Pay Day‘. This, of course, is the day when women are, allegedly, no longer earning

The City was meant to be hollowed out. Shortages would cripple the economy. And major multinationals would move their headquarters, listings, and all the wealth those create, to somewhere safely inside the EU’s Single Market. Some hardcore supporters of the UK remaining inside the EU made lots of predictions about the consequences of the decision to leave. And yet, one by one, they have failed to materialise. Now, oil giant Shell has said it will move its tax residency to London, a decision that could mean it ditches the ‘Royal Dutch’ from its name. In the end, it turns out that whether a country is inside the EU or not

The big central banks have been insisting for months now that the rise in inflation is temporary, and will fade once the great awakening of the world economy starts to settle down. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank have looked on as inflation has overshot their forecasts. But when the opportunity to tame it with an interest rate hike approaches, the banks pass it up, reiterating instead that it is ‘transitory’ — the monetary equivalent of ‘it’ll be fine’. With inflation now at a 30-year high in the United States — 6.2 per cent — it’s starting to look like a pretty big bump. But should

I have a horrible feeling that the Biden presidency may come to be defined by a single quote which will echo down the ages, featuring not just in economics textbooks but becoming a byword for hubris of all kinds. Speaking of his $1.75 trillion ‘Build Back Better’ plan, the President declared last week: ‘Seventeen Nobel prizewinners in economics have said that my plan will ease inflationary pressures’. Not so fast, Mr Biden. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for October rose to 6.2 percent, higher than expected and the highest rate since 1990, the very beginning of the low inflationary era. For all

Supermarket shelves are bare. There may not be enough turkeys for Christmas. Wages and prices are rising. And the government is sinking into a pit of sleaze. As if that were not enough, the EU is about to launch a full-scale trade war against the country.  Following the day-to-day news, you could well be forgiven for thinking the British economy was sinking into permanent chaos, doomed to replay the dark days of the 1970s. But hold on. Amidst all this gloom, the world’s biggest and most powerful investment bank, JP Morgan, says now is the time to be buying British.  JP Morgan has not always been a fan of the

So far, the big message from the Glasgow climate conference is the role of finance in decarbonising the global economy. It’s a dangerous development. In his speech to COP26 last week, the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, pledged action to ‘rewire the entire financial system for Net Zero.’ Finance has taken centre stage in large part because of inadequate government policies. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, around two-thirds of global emissions are linked to private household activity. Reducing them requires major changes in people’s lifestyles, UNEP says. Rather than imposing carbon taxes that really hurt – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates a minimum of $135 a ton, rising

Last week, the Bank of England sent a number of confused messages. One was almost shocking: Andrew Bailey said that it isn’t his job to steer markets on interest rates ‘day by day and week by week’. But as economic commentator Matthew C. Klein dryly noted this is literally his job. It is debatable whether the Bank of England needs to manage the entire yield curve (ie, buying and selling bonds in an attempt to set interest rates years into the future) but the central bank should be in charge of the short end. Those opposing an interest rate rise say that central banks should never shock markets. The Bank

He isn’t Canadian. He doesn’t dominate the Davos circuit with platitudes about climate change. And he isn’t constantly warning that the British economy will turn into a cross between Ethiopia and Argentina now that we have left the European Union. In many ways, the current Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is an upgrade on his high-profile predecessor Mark Carney. And yet, in the most important respect, he is turning out to be very similar. He is constantly threatening to raise interest rates, and then backing off at the last moment.  An increase in interest rate from the ‘emergency’ level of just 0.1 per cent was not quite

The COP26 summit is unlikely to be an outright flop. There has been no shortage of drama, with speakers seeming to compete with each other to see who could use the most histrionic language. Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, went so far as to compare the attending leaders to Nazi appeasers. He later apologised.  Some progress, albeit small, is being made. A hundred countries have been persuaded, some on the promise of sweeteners worth £14 billion, to sign a pledge to end deforestation by 2030. Brazil, the most important of all, is among them. India has agreed, for the first time, to set itself a date for achieving net-zero

Twice a year, every year, the changing of the clocks debate begins. So is it time to finally drop daylight saving and stick to British Summer Time all year round? Boris Johnson thinks so: the future Prime Minister weighed in on the subject back in 2011, claiming BST would ‘expand the economy and cheer everyone up’. Boris is right on both points, not least on the economic case for ditching the old habit of changing the clocks. Dark winter evenings, made longer by daylight saving, make around half of Brits feel more depressed, according to one poll. Other surveys suggesting we’d exercise more were it lighter longer. Perhaps this point should be taken with a

The big tax and spend budget. More Gordon Brown than George Osborne. Sunak’s spending spree. However you wish to describe it, one thing is clear: Rishi Sunak’s budget marks a radical departure from previous Conservative chancellors. And while it might have ruffled the feathers of some Tories, it’s also causing problems for the SNP. In some ways the break from Tory convention is no surprise. Calls by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2020 for rich countries to spend their way out of the pandemic – and then further calls this year to shell out to boost recovery – signalled a new economic orthodoxy that Sunak has tapped into. Austerity is

It was a tale of two chancellors at today’s high-spending Budget. Rishi Sunak began by embracing the big-state profligacy pursued by Cameron and May, and maintained by their successors, Boris and Carrie.  The Chancellor reeled off stacks of figures indicating that the economy is roaring back to life. ‘Growth up! Wages up! Employment up!’ he shouted. And he announced that government spending sprees will also surge by £150 billion. He plans to restore the 0.7 per cent spending target for foreign aid by the end of this parliament. And he has ordered civil servants across Whitehall to find more stuff to buy.  ‘A real-terms rise in spending for every single