Politics Archives

Tuesday

1 Dec 2020

Boris’s optimism has eroded backbench trust

After hoping that MPs wouldn’t notice that they’d been given a dud impact assessment of the new tiered system, Boris Johnson is now trying to reduce the size of the rebellion against these measures with the enticing prospect of areas moving down tiers within the next two weeks. Johnson is trying to reduce the size of the rebellion against these measures The Prime Minister opened the debate on the new tier regulations by telling MPs that they ‘have it in their powers, in our power, to help move our areas down the tiers’. He also hinted at a more localised approach to the tiering system, which is something many Tory

Nick Tyrone

Labour’s abstentions show Keir Starmer at his worst

A vote will be held in the House of Commons today, which will decide the freedoms Britons will have from this week, possibly until spring. Yet the official opposition is planning to abstain. There have also been rumours that if Boris Johnson does somehow get a Brexit deal with the EU this week, Labour will abstain on that vote as well. Two of the biggest Commons votes of our era – one built around the greatest health crisis of our times and what that means for individual freedoms in this country, the other about our future trade relationship with our immediate neighbours – and Labour appear to have decided not

The Cabinet Office

A response to Steerpike’s review of Michael Gove’s lockdown claims

Steerpike ran the rule over Michael Gove’s article in the Times in which he argued ‘lockdown was the only way to stop the NHS being broken’. Here, the Cabinet Office responds to Steerpike: 1. Claim: Steerpike claims Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, used his essay in the Times on 28 November to set out ‘his new argument: the only strategy for stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed now is the government’s new tougher three-tier system’. Rebuttal: the argument that social distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessary for protecting the NHS is not a new argument. It has been at the heart of the UK Government’s approach since spring

Isabel Hardman

Could we be asked to self-isolate if we catch flu?

How will coronavirus change our approach to seasonal illnesses? We are heading into the NHS’s most difficult months as winter flu season is upon us, and ministers have been urging people to get a flu jab in order to keep demand in the health service down. Matt Hancock, meanwhile, has been justifying the enormous expense of the beleaguered test and trace system by suggesting that it could continue once the pandemic dies down, being used ‘for everything’. He also told MPs last week that he wanted to end the culture of presenteeism in Britain, saying: ‘If you have flu-like symptoms you should have a test for it and find out

Isabel Hardman

Ministers aren’t making it easy for potential Tory rebels

It isn’t clear how many Tory MPs will rebel against the new tiered system of Covid restrictions this evening, not least because the Covid Recovery Group has said it isn’t whipping its members. Senior CRG members are suggesting there could be 30 to 40 MPs in the ‘no’ lobbies tonight, which could be expectation management, as the whips are trying to talk the numbers up. But one thing is clear: ministers have not made it easier for would-be rebels to climb down. The publication of the government’s impact assessment last night was widely derided, not least because it didn’t really contain an assessment of the economic impact at all. To

Kevin Hague

Leaving the Union would harm Scotland more than Brexit

The Spectator recently ran a piece by Andrew Wilson, author of the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, under the headline ‘Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union’. For those seeking any fresh insight into either the moral or economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, it was thin gruel. Instead of coherent arguments, we were offered bold and unsubstantiated assertions. We are asked to believe that the separatists’ position is ‘highly sophisticated’ and that because of Brexit, ‘staying in the Union is riskier than independence’. Any worries about the economic implications of leaving the UK single market, abandoning the Sterling currency union, losing the economic support offered by

Monday

30 Nov 2020

Katy Balls

Labour to abstain in vote on Covid tiers

Boris Johnson is the receiver of good news and bad news this evening. He is on course to win Commons approval for his new tier system when it’s put to a vote on Tuesday. However, it will likely be down to support from Labour. While a Tory revolt is brewing, Sir Keir Starmer has announced that his party will abstain in the vote — meaning even a sizeable rebellion on the Tory benches won’t be enough to stop it passing. Explaining his decision, Starmer said his party would not vote against the restrictions on the grounds that Labour will ‘always act in the national interest’. His reason for not voting for the restrictions? The lack

James Forsyth

The growing Tory tier rebellion

Mark Harper has an unusual quality for a rebel leader, he’s a former government chief whip. So, it is fair to assume that he wouldn’t have declared this evening that the ‘wheels are coming off the government’s arguments’ and that ‘even with so little time, the government’s analysis seems to be collapsing under the glare of scrutiny’ if he didn’t think that the bulk of the Covid Recovery Group, which is 70-odd strong, agreed with him. Certainly, some of those MPs I would have expected to back the government tomorrow night after making their concerns clear, now appear intent on voting against the government. Now, given that 42 Tory MPs

Alex Massie

Nicola Sturgeon’s vainglorious conference speech

In March this year, as the country went into Covid-prompted lockdown, the SNP and the Scottish government put their campaigns for independence on hold. 2020 has been a year of few consolations and it is typical that even its better things must come to an end. Then again, there was no need for the SNP to put their demands for independence into cold storage, for a temporary cessation of outrage requires nobody to forget the party’s sole reason for existence. So few people took this notional ceasefire seriously – though characteristically the SNP demanded credit for it anyway – and even fewer will have been surprised to discover this afternoon

Kate Andrews

Boris’s tier assessment says nothing new

In an attempt to win tomorrow’s vote on the new tier system — without relying on Labour’s support — Boris Johnson promised to publish analysis of the health, social and economic impact that the new tier system would have on the nation. But potential rebels are unlikely to be satisfied with the resulting document, published earlier this afternoon. The intention was to show sceptical MPs that the government is seriously weighing up the trade-offs between the effects of Covid and the effects of stopping its spread. But it did not include a rigorous economic analysis of the tier system: in fact, it provided no cost-benefit analysis of any specific restriction. Instead of

Steerpike

Michael Gove’s lockdown claims: a review of the evidence

In a 2,000-word essay published over the weekend, Michael Gove sought to win round Tory rebels by arguing that ‘lockdown was the only way to stop the NHS being broken’. In the article, the cabinet minister paints a picture of an NHS all set to be flattened until lockdown 2 was introduced: ‘Infections were doubling fast’ at the time of lockdown — and only lockdown saved the day. Gove uses this to make his new argument: the only strategy for stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed now is the government’s new tougher three-tier system. While the article won some applause online it has also irritated several of Gove’s colleagues. Colleagues

Robert Peston

Covid is a nightmare for libertarian Tories

These are confusing times for all of us. But for small-government libertarian Tories, Covid-19 is all their worst nightmares compressed into nine months. It is hard to think of any basic civil liberty that hasn’t been impinged in the cause of limiting the spread of coronavirus, except perhaps freedom of speech. As for Thatcherite constraints on the expansion of the state, we’ve not seen growth in public spending as fast or as large since 1945. Nor have we witnessed such encroachment by government in markets and enterprises (from underwriting almost all employment, through to banning evictions and creating a whole new diagnostics and vaccinations infrastructure). The vaccine, which has given

Steerpike

Watch: Diane Abbott forgets her own voting record

What should we do with foreign criminals, people who come to this country and then commit cruel and violent crimes against law-abiding British residents? If your answer is to deport them, then that is, according to Diane Abbott, ‘cruel and potentially dangerous’. During an urgent question from Labour earlier this afternoon, the former shadow home secretary criticised the decision to return a flight full of convicted foreign criminals to Jamaica. These are criminals who, according to Home Office minister Chris Philp, were found guilty of ‘sexual assault against children, murder, rape, drug dealing and violent crime’. Abbott suggested it was potentially dangerous to deport these ‘vulnerable people’ during a pandemic. One wonders

Steerpike

What can pubs serve as a ‘substantial meal’?

When the new tiered restrictions come into force this week, many pubs and bars around the country will be wondering if they can keep their doors open. While Tier 3 venues have effectively been forced to close, pubs in Tier 2 (which covers around 50 per cent of England) have been told they can only serve alcohol to customers alongside a ‘substantial meal’. But what counts as substantial? Environment minister George Eustice attempted to clarify this on LBC radio this morning, when he suggested that a scotch egg would probably count, as long as it was brought over on a plate. But Mr Steerpike has noticed that ministers seemed to

Ross Clark

Were tiers working before lockdown?

Beware data that is released on the eve of a Commons vote on lockdown restrictions. That was the lesson of the graph presented by Sir Patrick Vallance at the Downing Street press briefing on 31 October, which included a scenario of 4,000 deaths a day by December unless drastic action was taken. The figure quickly fell apart when it was revealed that the data was several weeks out of date and the curve shown on the graph was already running well ahead of reality. What, then, to make of the React study published this morning, reported on the BBC news and elsewhere this morning, claiming that Covid cases have ‘fallen by about a third over lockdown’?

Katy Balls

Is a no-deal Brexit underpriced?

20 min listen

Brexit negotiations are continuing this week, with fisheries and the level playing field remaining key sticking points. But with the deadline for an agreement edging closer, is no-deal more likely than anticipated? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth.

Nick Tyrone

Is no deal better than a bad deal? We’re about to find out

Has a Brexit deal already been done? You’d be forgiven for thinking so if, like me, you listened to talk radio over the weekend. Much of the discussion on Brexit now focuses on whether or not Labour will vote for or against, or even abstain on the ‘deal’. What deal? In reality there is, of course, yet to be a trade agreement between the UK and the European Union and it actually looks fairly unlikely at this stage. The clock is ticking, but still the assumption remains that either side will fold before the year is out. I’m not convinced. At the end of last week, an offer was made by the

Bruce Anderson

In defence of British institutions

‘Terms and conditions will apply.’ That, or something near it, was Dan Rosenfield’s initial response when Boris Johnson invited him to become Chief of Staff in No.10. Naturally, Mr Rosenfield was tempted. But he wanted assurances that he would have the authority to run a serious political outfit. He was not interested in becoming a zoo-keeper. That was not a problem. The zoo has been closed down. The Dominic Cummings era is over. Boris’s willingness to hire a completely different character, following the appointment of Simon Case as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service, suggests that the PM can recognise and value seriousness in others, even if he

Katy Balls

Is a no-deal Brexit underpriced?

As the Brexit talks enter what is expected to be the last full week of substantive negotiations, opposition leaders are blasting the government for the lack of progress while No. 10 has issued a warning that no deal is ‘arguably underpriced’. So, is this more fighting talk for the purpose of the negotiations or is no deal now a likely prospect? Given that Boris Johnson agreed a deal at the last minute in the first stage of Brexit talks on the withdrawal agreement, the working assumption among many Tory MPs for some time has been that the same will occur this time around. Some of Johnson’s colleagues even point to the recent departure of Vote

Sunday

29 Nov 2020

James Kirkup

Why the Treasury always wins

One of the abiding flaws of British political discourse is that it overlooks the importance of organisation and institutions. The political village where I’ve spent my career talks too much about politics and personality; a bit – but not enough – about policy; and almost not at all about organisations. This creates blind-spots and surprises. Many people at Westminster were surprised by the election of Jeremy Corbyn and his resilience as leader in the face of internal challenge. That’s because they overlooked the vital importance of the Labour Party membership – which Corbyn successfully changed – and the party’s internal structures. Seen through the lens of party organisation, the fall