Politics Archives

Tuesday

15 Sep 2020

What do 111 calls tell us about the second wave?

Should we be looking at confirmed cases of Covid-19 to give us a guide as to how the epidemic is progressing – or at the number of people reporting symptoms? Over the past few months attempts to track the virus have been hampered by a very inconvenient fact: the number of tests being performed has increased hugely since the emergence of Covid-19, increasing tenfold between April and July. It makes reading the data extremely problematic – the more people you test, the more cases you are inevitably going to pick up. There is a possible alternative data set, however: the number of people ringing 111 to report symptoms. As the

Kate Andrews

Is unemployment about to surge?

Despite experiencing the largest economic contraction in over 300 years, UK unemployment figures haven’t budged for months. The furlough scheme seems to have proved successful in shielding many jobs from getting the immediate axe, while those who were made redundant often didn’t appear in the official figures as they were not immediately looking for work. But today’s labour market overview from the ONS shows they have started to tick upward: unemployment is now at 4.1 per cent, 0.3 percentage points up from last year and 0.2 points up from the last quarter. Breaking down the rate by age, it’s clear the young have suffered the most so far: unemployment for 16

Robert Peston

Tory faith in Boris is wavering

Having won that 80 seat majority for his party in December, it is really quite an achievement by Boris Johnson that so many Tory MPs want to talk to me about whether he’ll stand down – willingly or not – next year. There is even talk that no-confidence letters are already sitting in Graham Brady’s bottom drawer calling for a leadership contest. Truthfully I don’t take the notion of an organised coup seriously. But what should worry the PM – and what the chief whip should be telling him – is that many of those who were his enthusiastic supporters in last June’s leadership contest say things to me like ‘everything

Gus Carter

Full list: Internal Market bill abstainers

Last night’s second reading of the Internal Market Bill passed with a comfortable 77 votes for the government. In truth, this was always going to happen. A second reading vote confirms merely the principle of a bill so the real question was over the size of any potential rebellion rather than the future of the legislation itself. The problem comes next Tuesday when Bob Neill’s amendment is laid before the House. This would give MPs a vote on whether the UK chooses to break the Withdrawal Agreement when it comes to customs checks in the Irish Sea or state aid interventions for NI businesses. In the meantime, abstentions on the

Nick Tyrone

Farage could still come back to haunt the Tories on Brexit

Some Tory MPs are worried about a strategy that the party is apparently seriously considering adopting at the next general election. It is sometimes referred to as the ‘30-10 strategy’. The ‘30’ denotes the solid, unshakable Tory base; people who will supposedly vote for the Conservatives no matter what. The ‘10’ represents the Brexit add-ons; Ukip and Labour voters who went Tory in December 2019 because they wanted to ‘get Brexit done’. The ‘30’ can be taken for granted by nature, leading to everything being done to keep the Brexiteer ‘10’ onside. It is thought that with this solid 40 per cent of the electorate, all the Conservatives need to

Monday

14 Sep 2020

Steerpike

Full text: Charles Walker accuses Boris Johnson of treating MPs like dogs

Oh dear. It seems the whips failed to assuage Charles Walker, vice chair of the influential 1922 Committee of backbench Conservatives. The well-respected Brexiteer told of his frustration over Covid restrictions, as well as his concern over the controversial Internal Market Bill. And Walker certainly didn’t pull his punches. He clearly wanted to send a message when he told the chamber: ‘If you keep whacking a dog, don’t be surprised when it bites you back.’ This shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise to Downing Street. Just a fortnight ago, the normally loyal Walker told the Observer that it was becoming increasingly difficult for MPs to defend the government, warning of ‘eroded

James Forsyth

Has Boris done enough to halt the Tory rebellion?

Boris Johnson has just been speaking in the Commons as the government tries to quell the Tory revolt over the internal market bill. Johnson’s tone was different from the government’s last week. There was no repeat of Brandon Lewis’s infamous words about a ‘specific and limited’ breach of international law, rather there was an emphasis on how the Northern Ireland clauses were ‘reserve powers’ that he hoped never to have to use. He stressed that MPs would have the chance to vote on a statutory instrument before they came into force. The problem for the government is that this whole debate has been framed by what Lewis said, and the

Steerpike

Boris takes a swipe at Cox

Fancy an ice-cream anyone? While defending his Internal Market Bill, Boris Johnson chose to make what appeared to be a pointed dig at one of the Bill’s opponents. Describing the possibility of a tariff border down the Irish sea, Johnson provided MPs with a handful of helpful examples. He explained that the Withdrawal Agreement risked: Tariffs [that] could get as high 90 per cent by value on Scottish beef going to Northern Ireland, tariffs potentially over 61 per cent on Welsh lamb heading from Anglesea to Antrim… And, entirely incidentally of course, tariffs reaching: Over 100 per cent on clotted cream from Torridge, to pick a Devonshire town at random, to

Katy Balls

Can Boris stave off a Tory Brexit rebellion?

13 min listen

Former attorney general Geoffrey Cox has today warned that the Internal Markets Bill could cause ‘unconscionable’ damage to the UK’s international standing. With a vote on the legislation due later today, could a rebellion overcome the government’s majority? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth.

Steven Barrett

Why didn’t the EU punish Germany when it broke international law?

Boris Johnson’s proposal to break international law ‘in a specific and limited way’ has sparked uproar. But do you remember when the UK broke the Geneva Convention? Oh. Well we did. The government-ratified Geneva Convention on the Sea came into effect in Britain on 10 September 1964. From then the UK was bound forever by the treaty and bound by international law. On 25 September 1964, we were not. No explanation was given. No explanation was asked. Our Judge who ruled in favour of the government when it broke the Geneva Convention of the Sea, said this: ‘the Crown [The Government] has a sovereign right, which the court cannot question, to

Steerpike

Geoffrey Cox’s parting shot

Geoffrey Cox has been causing the government a bit of trouble of late. Ahead of votes on Boris Johnson’s internal market bill, the former attorney general has published an article in The Times on why he can’t vote for it – accusing the Prime Minister of doing ‘unconscionable’ damage to Britain’s international reputation through his proposals to break international law. The intervention has served to further invigorate would-be rebels – with senior members of government spending the afternoon calling around MPs ahead of the second reading of the bill this evening. Now it appears Cox is about to provide additional embarrassment for the Prime Minister. He is absent from parliament today so will miss the vote – though

Patrick O’Flynn

Cut Boris some slack on the ‘Rule of Six’

Happy ‘Rule of Six’ day everyone. I’m off out a bit later to meet five friends in a pub (true story). So I will be fully compliant and will positively baste my hands in sanitiser on the way in. But I hope to get a little merry nonetheless. But across media land toys are being propelled out of prams at high velocity over the new restriction as pundits declare what a nonsense it is (see my previous piece from last week for examples). One of the arguments they cite is that deaths from Covid are still flatlining (correct) while hospitalisations are not rising (incorrect, they bottomed out at under 750

James Harper

Yes, Boris is breaching the rule of law. Here’s why

In an article published on 10 September, David Wolfson QC argued that the government’s actions around the Internal Markets Bill do not breach the rule of law. Sadly, while I wish this were true, I do not concur. From the moment Brandon Lewis stood in parliament and openly admitted the government’s plans breached international law, albeit in a ‘limited and specific’ manner (and there can be no question that this was in error), the government has been acting in a way which does not accord with the philosophy embodied by the expression ‘rule of law’. At its heart, the rule of law is the concept that all are equal under the

Katy Balls

Will Boris Johnson be able to quell the latest Brexit rebellion?

Is the government facing a looming defeat on the internal market bill? After plans by Boris Johnson and his ministers to override parts of the withdrawal agreement through the legislation came to light last week, there has been a growing backlash among Tory MPs. The decision by Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis to stand up at the despatch box and say the plans did break international law ‘in a specific and limited way’ angered even some Brexiteer MPs as they felt it left them no cover to support the legislation. The sense in government has been that the proposals will still pass the Commons as the rebellion is limited. However, a sign

James Johnson

Boris will regret a no-deal Brexit

Much has been said about the prospect of no deal over the past few days – the economics, arguments over sovereignty, the views of Conservative MPs, possible long-term gain, and the views of the voters. All will be important to the government’s final decision. Looking only at the voters, the established wisdom seems to be that a no deal course gives Boris his moment of facing down the EU, and that the former ‘Red Wall’ would welcome such a move. This, I think, is an incorrect assumption. Twelve months ago, no deal may well have been welcomed by a sizeable proportion of voters. Brexit was the only show in town.

Ross Clark

Germany shows it isn’t a mistake to reopen schools

A week after schools returned, the government was fretting about a new surge in recorded cases – and found itself moved to introduce new rules limiting us meeting with no more than five other people at a time. The timing seems remarkable. So was it a big mistake to reopen schools? Should we have kept children at home, in some kind of blended learning arrangement so as to spare us all from a second wave of Covid-19? To judge by the experience from Germany the answer is a firm ‘no’. In Germany, as in Scotland, schools have now been back for nearly a month. And the evidence, as reviewed by

Sunday

13 Sep 2020

Steerpike

Geoffrey Cox: I’m a Brexiteer to my core but I can’t support Boris’s Bill

When Geoffrey Cox was Theresa May’s Attorney General it was his refusal to go give his blessing to her Brexit deal that ensured her party would not vote for it. His reputation as a man with unbending principles meant many MPs simply took his word for it: if No10 said one thing and Cox said another they’d believe Cox. But now these Brexiteers have a conundrum, because in an article for the Times, Cox has just said he won’t vote for Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill. Why not? Because it violates the terms of a treaty signed by this Prime Minister and ratified by this parliament. Here’s his argument: When the Queen’s

David Frost

Full text: UK and EU Brexit negotiators debate over Twitter

Below is the full text of UK Brexit negotiator David Frost’s twitter thread in response to his EU counterpart Michel Barnier: ‘I would like to make a few comments and state a few facts, in my capacity as the PM’s negotiator in the current and last autumn’s talks. On the Protocol, we indeed negotiated a careful balance in order to preserve peace and the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. It is precisely to ensure this balance can be preserved in all circumstances that the government needs powers in reserve to avoid it being disrupted. On third country listings: the EU knows perfectly well all the details of our food standards rules because we

Tali Fraser

Is Sadiq Khan paying the political price of Covid?

When the London Mayoral election was delayed due to the pandemic, no one was particularly outraged: the prospect of Sadiq Khan’s re-election seemed secure and Shaun Bailey, the Tory challenger, was nowhere to be seen. But that might be changing. Internal polling by the Tory party, leaked to the Telegraph, suggests that Londoners have not been best pleased at the city’s recent fate – and Bailey is only seven points behind, at 35 to Khan’s 42 per cent. This is quite the difference from a March YouGov poll putting Bailey at a fairly hopeless 23 per cent. It’s not that Bailey has been much more visible – but it’s easy

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: Justice Secretary would resign if UK breaks law in ‘unacceptable’ way

Robert Buckland – ‘I will resign’ if government breaks law in ‘unacceptable’ way The Justice Secretary Robert Buckland was put on the spot this morning over the government’s proposed Internal Market Bill, which is due to be introduced to the House of Commons tomorrow. The bill intends to override aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol – a part of the official Withdrawal Agreement – to give ministers the right to modify rules on customs, if there is no final trade deal agreed by December. Andrew Marr quizzed Buckland about whether using these powers would breach international law: AM: Is that the moment that [you] resign from the government – if