Politics Archives

Friday

17 Apr 2020

Stanford study suggests Covid infections are 50 to 85 times more than confirmed cases

Another day, and yet more evidence has appeared that could indicate the number of people who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, might be vastly higher than official figures suggest. This time a Californian study suggests the figure in one county could be more than 50 times the number who knew they had had the virus. A team from Stanford university and other US universities recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County via Facebook adverts and produced a sample of 3000 representatives of the county as a whole. They were then invited for blood tests to detect the presence of antibodies to the virus. The result was positive in 1.5 per

Katy Balls

When will the public accept an end to the lockdown?

In the weeks leading up to Boris Johnson announcing lockdown measures, ministers and aides wondered how in the world you could enforce a lockdown like the one seen in authoritarian China in a liberal democracy such as the UK. But following Dominic Raab confirmation on Thursday that there will be another three weeks of lockdown, public resistance is the least of ministers’ concerns. The biggest surprise about the lockdown within government has been the level of public support for it. Polling has repeatedly shown that rather than fighting the social distancing measures, Britons are embracing them more obediently than anyone in might have dared imagine. A YouGov poll prior to Raab’s announcement found

Robert Peston

The scientists are now running the country

What we learned on Thursday is that, at least while the Prime Minister is convalescing, the boffins of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies are, in effect, running the country. Dominic Raab, who is deputising for Boris Johnson, made it crystal clear that he and his fellow ministers – who met on Thursday in Cabinet and the Cobra committee – simply followed the advice of SAGE, which is chaired by Sir Patrick Vallance, in extending total lockdown for a minimum of three weeks. As other ministers have confirmed to me, there was no pushing back on SAGE’s view that easing any of the current unprecedented constraints on our basic

Thursday

16 Apr 2020

Cindy Yu

The five tests for easing the lockdown

15 min listen

As expected, Dominic Raab announced an extension to the lockdown today, with no clear end date set. But he did offer insight into the criteria that the government is using to judge when that time might come. Katy Balls writes about it here and she discusses them on the latest episode with James and Cindy. The difficulty comes from tests four and five – in particular, some in government tell James that the goal to carry out 100,000 tests per day may not be met until mid-May. In this episode, James also reveals that the government is considering changing its advice on masks. As Chris Whitty said today, Sage is revisiting the

Jeremy Hunt

Corona wars: will either Trump or Xi win?

44 min listen

Historian Niall Ferguson writes in this week’s cover piece that, even before coronavirus, the Cold War between America and China was already getting underway. With the current pandemic, animosity between the two superpowers has only increased. So when it comes to the geopolitics of the ‘corona wars’, who will win? Niall tells Cindy on the podcast that it may not be either; that when it comes to pandemics, city-states actually do better than empires. That’s the Taiwans, the South Koreas, and the Singapores. He’s joined on the podcast by Gerard Baker, the editor at large of the Wall Street Journal. They discuss the long term impact of this pandemic on international

Katy Balls

Dominic Raab’s five tests for easing the lockdown

Dominic Raab has this evening confirmed that there will a lockdown extension of three weeks. The First Secretary of State said that while there had been encouraging signs that the rate of infection had significantly reduced, it was still too early to break away from any lockdown measures. He said the most dangerous thing for both public health and the economy would be a second wave of coronavirus infections. While the government line remains that ministers will not publicly discuss an exit strategy on the grounds that it distracts from the current social distancing measure, Raab went the furthest he has in addressing the issue. The Foreign Secretary set out the criteria that

James Forsyth

Prepare for a radically different Tory party

Before he went into isolation, Boris Johnson had remarked to Downing Street aides that he was keen to get back to the agenda on which he had been elected. But as I say in the magazine this week, this virus has now so changed the landscape that there will be no simple return to the world before coronavirus. One normally understated Downing Street figure predicts it will ‘change things for a generation’. The question for the government is whether it wishes to attempt to return to what went before or to try and combine its various agendas – levelling-up, Brexit and net zero – in its post-Corona reconstruction job. Currently, all the signs

Steerpike

Six questions that Neil Ferguson should be asked

It was a tale of two interviews on the Today programme this morning. First up on the show was Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, who has been instrumental in forming the UK government’s response to the coronavirus crisis, and whose virus modelling led to the current lockdown being put in place. On the show, the professor received an almost deferential line of questioning from Sarah Smith with his views seemingly taken as near-Gospel as he declared that a ‘significant level’ of social distancing could have to be maintained indefinitely until a vaccine becomes available. Then came along the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. As you would expect, he was

Niall Ferguson

Why Trump and Xi might both lose the corona wars

The Covid-19 pandemic came along just as Cold War II was getting under way between the United States and the People’s Republic of China — the superpowers of our time — with the European Union and a good many other US allies quietly hoping to be non-aligned. Far from propelling Beijing and Washington towards détente in the face of a common enemy, the new plague has only intensified the Cold War. For the first time, China’s campaign of disinformation has been on a Russian level, with wild anti-American conspiracy theories being disseminated by senior Foreign Ministry officials. As is well known, President Donald Trump retaliated by calling Sars-CoV-2 (the pathogen

James Forsyth

How Covid-19 will change the Tory party

Politics is full of events that are meant to change everything but actually do little. Yet the coronavirus crisis will be one of those rare events that does have lasting political impact. This disease, and its aftermath, will change how the country works. Covid-19 has already directly affected every household, business and institution in the country in a way that not even the 2008 financial crash did. Boris Johnson’s government will now be defined by how it handles both the crisis and its aftermath. Before he went into isolation, Johnson remarked to Downing Street aides that he was keen to get back to the agenda on which he had been

James Kirkup

Shame on those who mock Matt Hancock’s ‘care’ badge

Matt Hancock’s badge for carers is a perfectly good idea. The mockery of it is in many cases shallow, ill-informed, revealing and hypocritical. You don’t need me to describe the badge or the mockery. Anyone with an internet connection and a glancing familiarity with what passes for ‘news’ these days is aware that the Health – and Social Care – Secretary announced that the Government is now backing a scheme that encourages social care staff to wear a green badge saying CARE. Part of the aim is to give care workers the same sort of recognition, esteem and access to services – reserved shopping hours, for instance – as NHS

It’s time to talk about life after lockdown

The government is reluctant to start talking about life after the lockdown for fear of diluting its social distancing message, but just as post-war planning started during world war two, long before the fighting was over, we too should start planning for the post-coronavirus world. The Beveridge report on our social insurance system came out in November 1942, when it was by no means certain we would win. And the Bretton Woods conference, which established the post-war financial system based on the International Monetary Fund and the modified gold standard linked to the US dollar, took place in July 1944. It may seem far-fetched to compare the coronavirus crisis with

Wednesday

15 Apr 2020

Isabel Hardman

Domestic abuse support needs more than tick-box politics

One of the problems with the political news cycle, whether in normal times or now, is that politicians believe that making an announcement about a policy problem is all they need to do to tick it off their to-do list. The more complex the problem, the more tempting it is to make an announcement that sounds as though you are taking it seriously, but which doesn’t do anything to address even one aspect of what’s really going on. One of the classic long-term examples of this is social care, which no political party in the past two decades has done enough to address, beyond making announcements about what they might

Ross Clark

Can HS2 make itself too big to cancel?

I was never in favour of HS2, but if we are going to build it we might as well get on with it, so, yes, the government is right to order the bulldozers into action in spite of Covid-19 – as long as rules are enforced to ensure physical distancing between construction workers. But if it is safe to start building HS2, why then are so many other building sites closed? According to HS2 minister Andrew Stephenson: ‘We cannot delay work on our long-term plan to level up the country.’ But what about house-building – isn’t that part of levelling up, too? And what about all those plumbers, electricians, carpenters,

Matthew Lynn

Ursula von der Leyen’s ‘Marshall Plan’ is doomed

Solidarity will be strengthened. Countries will find new ways to co-operate. And Brussels will support the economy, making sure the strong support the weak. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is set to unveil the EU’s response to the coronavirus crisis, promising a ‘new Marshall Plan’ to prevent the continent plunging into deep recession. It is a nice idea. The financial help offered by Harry Truman’s secretary of state George C. Marshall to rebuild Europe after World War II is rightly credited with salvaging its shattered economy and laying the foundations for half-a-century of peace and prosperity. The trouble is, the reality is nothing close to the rhetoric. What is

John Connolly

Keir Starmer’s coronavirus gamble

13 min listen

Keir Starmer has written to the government to demand that they publish detailed criteria on what would be enough to lift this lockdown. It’s his first offensive as the leader of the Opposition in the current crisis, but it’s not a move that has been welcomed by all on the left. So how shrewd is his gamble?

James Forsyth

The UK will not request an extension to the Brexit transition period

David Frost, the Prime Minister’s chief Brexit negotiator, has held discussions with the First Secretary of State Dominic Raab and other senior ministers in the last few days. As I say in tomorrow’s Spectator, the conclusion of these discussions has been that the UK will not request an extension to the transition period. Interestingly, I understand that no one in these discussions backed asking for an extension. The thinking is that a delay would not solve the fundamental policy problems and that a deal is either possible or not. Another factor, I understand, is that the government worries about the cost of any extension. There is concern that extending could

David Patrikarakos

Keir Starmer is the conservative we need in this time of crisis

These are discombobulating times. A deadly pandemic; the United States at sea, China belligerent and the EU at war with itself. British politics was in flux before the virus hit. Now it is vertiginous. The Tory party, long seen as the guardian of the status quo, has been forced to change tack as it deals with the fallout. Keir Starmer, recently elected as Labour leader, will play a vital role in this realignment – but not one we would once have envisaged. Starmer’s election as Labour leader in the midst of coronavirus is a good thing. He is the anti-Corbyn for a Labour party looking for calm and stability after

Katy Balls

Keir Starmer’s coronavirus gamble

After promising to work constructively with the government to tackle coronavirus, Keir Starmer has this morning gone on the offensive. The Labour leader has written to the de facto deputy Dominic Raab calling on him to publish the outline of the government’s exit strategy. Ministers have repeatedly refused to discuss any easing of the lockdown publicly on the grounds that it is counter-productive to do so until the death rate has begun to fall. Starmer disagrees – and says the public deserves to know the ‘principles and approach’ driving the work going on behind the scenes on the exit strategy while also citing the long term effect of school closures on inequality in

Tuesday

14 Apr 2020

Katy Balls

Rishi Sunak tries to calm coronavirus crunch fears

Following Tuesday’s bleak headlines over the effect the coronavirus lockdown could have on the economy, the Chancellor attempted to strike an optimistic note in the daily government press conference. With the OBR projection suggesting three months of lockdown followed by a partial easing could lead to the UK economy shrinking by 35 per cent, Sunak said that while the prediction was worrying the figures were in some ways unsurprising as these are unprecedented times. However, the Chancellor stressed that it was simply ‘a possible scenario’ and it ‘may not even be the most likely’. Sunak said the important takeaway is that the economy would likely ‘bounce back quickly’ once measures are lifted. He said