The political risk of Boris’s coronavirus strategy
11 min listen
Politics
Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Thursday
Oil wars: is this the real threat to the world economy?
36 min listen
This week kicked off with an incredible fall in oil prices globally, so what on earth happened (00:50)? We also talk about the Budget, where Rishi Sunak set out in more detail how the government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda will look (10:20). Finally, should we be doing more science research for curiosity’s sake (23:05)?
Electoral Commission calls for cancellation of local elections – what next?
After the World Health Organisation labelled the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, countries across the globe have been responding with varying strategies. A common theme in every country, however, is the cancellation of events. This afternoon the Electoral Commission recommended that the UK government postpones the May elections until the autumn: ‘The risks to delivery that have been identified are such that we cannot be confident that voters will be able to participate in the polls safely and confidently.’ As James reported in the Sun on Saturday, this option has been discussed in Whitehall. But until now the government has been reluctant to take such a big step on the local elections – which will
Boris Johnson is taking a gamble with his coronavirus strategy
There is no question more important for all of us than whether Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and Matt Hancock are right that there is no alternative to letting coronavirus run its course in the UK, and to control the peak of the epidemic so that it falls in summer when the NHS may have the capacity to cope (see my earlier note for more on their policy). This may well be a rational approach, supported by the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser – Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance – underpinned by some sophisticated modelling on how viruses spread through populations. But rational is not the same as optimal,
Can the EU really complain about Trump’s ‘unscientific’ travel ban?
Yes, of course Donald Trump’s ban on travel between the US and the Schengen zone is an over-reaction to coronavirus, which will do far more harm to the economy than it will to protect the health of Americans. But it is pretty rich for the EU to be bleating about others banning things without scientific justification. The EU has protested bitterly about the American ban, complaining it was introduced unilaterally without consultation. Guy Verhofstadt tweets: ‘Instead of a travel ban for Europeans Trump should make a decent health care system that works for Americans.’ The usual anti-Trumpites have weighed in with their ha’porth of wisdom, with Simon Schama calling the
Washington is furious at Boris’s Huawei bid
Boris Johnson faced his first major rebellion of the new parliament on Tuesday. Parliamentarians are waking up to the fact that this decision has far greater diplomatic ramifications than was originally appreciated. Despite their sizeable majority, the government narrowly avoided defeat and will be vulnerable when future bills relating to Huawei are tabled. The reaction in Washington DC to Boris Johnson’s decision to allow Huawei to tender for the 5G contract validates the concerns of the new ‘awkward squad’ of former cabinet ministers and Tory select committee chairs. Rarely have Democrats and Republicans been so united. Capitol Hill seldom pays much attention to Britain, but everyone from Chuck Schumer, the leader
Rory Stewart’s meeting that should have been an email
Rory Stewart announced at a meeting today that he won’t be holding any more meetings as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. He is also cancelling all of his door-knocking and canvassing, putting a swift end to his sofa-surfing escapade. Mr S. thinks that this meeting really should have been an email.
Podcast LIVE: Budget Special
84 min listen
Bank of England’s irrelevant coronavirus vaccine
There may be no vaccine yet for Covid-19, but the Bank of England yesterday morning gave us a full dose of what it hopes will be the financial equivalent; slashing interest rates from 0.75 per cent to 0.25 per cent. It has also relaxed the capital buffer requirements for banks — the amount of capital banks are required to hold back to defend against a financial crisis like that of 2008/09. This ought to allow banks to advance more loans to business. Some have been wondering whether the bank is attempting the equivalent of fighting a viral infection with antibiotics. Lowering interest rates in normal circumstances might help boost demand
Wednesday
Why has coronavirus not closed parliament?
Why hasn’t parliament been closed after Health minister Nadine Dorries contracted coronavirus? Why isn’t the government demanding the cancellation of large events and school closures to help limit the spread of the illness? Why isn’t it copying other countries who have introduced much more draconian measures, to the extent that Atlético Madrid fans arriving in Liverpool are watching a game that would have been closed to them in their home country? Health Secretary Matt Hancock updated the Commons on the outbreak this evening, and ended up having to answer all of these questions. His main defence against these sorts of questions was that the research and modelling suggests the government’s
Rishi Sunak’s Budget splurge is more than just a political gamble
The Treasury thinks it has a new friend: the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). During the delivery of his first Budget this afternoon, Chancellor Rishi Sunak referenced the economic forecaster multiple times, relying on its assessment of the Budget as proof that the ‘largest giveaway since 1992’ is still fiscally responsible. The OBR has ‘made an estimate they’ve never made before,’ boasted Sunak. ‘If future Governments have the same determination to continue our approach’ – by this he means more public spending – ‘the UK’s long-term productivity will increase by 2.5 per cent.’ But that’s a big ‘if’, even according to the Chancellor’s new friend. At the OBR’s post-Budget briefing
The eurozone’s coronavirus response has been dire
A dramatic dawn cut in interest rates. A huge blast of public spending. And immediate cash help for companies that might find themselves temporarily in trouble as their customers stay at home and staff call in sick. We will find out over the next few weeks whether the British government has done enough to fight the coronavirus emergency it suddenly faces. But there can be no question it has at least done everything it can to fight the economic crisis that will surely follow. Likewise in the United States, the Federal Reserve has already sprung a cut in interest rates on the markets and may well make another move before
Can Bernie stop Biden?
24 min listen
Rishi Sunak’s barmy Budget
He began with a touch of statesmanlike solemnity about the pandemic. ‘The British people may be worried but they are not daunted. We will protect this country and our people. We will rise to this challenge.’ This was Rishi Sunak delivering his first budget. Many viewers will not have seen him give a sustained performance before. He’s young, lean, smiley, mild-mannered. His thick rug of hair is worn with a schoolboy’s side-parting. Lots of teeth, oddly big ears. An ideal son-in-law type. But this isn’t the right look for a chancellor who should either resemble a mortician, (Stafford Cripps), or a voluptuary, (Nigel Lawson). His vocal delivery has some strangely
How Rishi Sunak outshone Corbyn’s five years in one speech
If Jeremy Corbyn had been saving his energy by giving a poor performance at PMQs, he wasn’t saving it for his Budget response. He sounded bored, almost as though he too is fed up of waiting for the Labour leadership contest to trundle to an end so that he can pack off and not have to respond to economic statements. Beside him, John McDonnell looked a little envious that the final big fiscal event of the duo’s time at the top of the party was the one Corbyn got to respond to, rather than the Shadow Chancellor. He even failed to notice that the debate was being chaired – as
Will Rishi Sunak’s Budget splurge pay off?
16 min listen
What the Budget tells us about Boris Johnson’s Tories
The most remarkable element of that Budget was a Tory Chancellor standing at the despatch box saying that people had voted to change the ‘economic geography’ of the country and that was what this government was going to try and deliver. It was a sign of how different this government is from its Tory predecessors. Towards the end of the speech, Rishi Sunak boasted about a ‘changed mindset’ in government when it comes to capital spending that would see more projects built outside London and the south. It was another reminder of how this government sees itself as a new regime, not simply the Tories’ fourth term in office. There
The great Tory Budget giveaway
It’s always tempting for governments to respond to economic trouble with a debt-fuelled spending splurge, but it’s a notoriously blunt tool. The root of the current problem is not financial panic but a rational response to the coronavirus. People are travelling less, staying away from shops and the workplace, delaying various projects, and they will keep doing so while the uncertainty remains. This disruption is painful but temporary. It is not symptomatic of financial malaise. It would be a mistake for the Conservatives to use this as a pretext to abandon their five-year plan to control the public finances. The £30 billion stimulus to address jitters over coronavirus was quite
Full text: Rishi Sunak’s Budget statement
Rishi Sunak unveiled his first Budget today. The Chancellor has promised a £30bn war chest for tackling coronavirus. There is also £6bn of new funding for the NHS, a new £2.5bn pothole fund and £5.2bn for flooding defences. Here is his full speech: I want to get straight to the issue most on everyone’s mind– coronavirus COVID19. I know how worried people are: worried about their health, the health of their loved ones, their jobs, their income, their businesses, their financial security. And I know they get even more worried when they turn on their TVs and hear talk of markets collapsing and recessions coming. People want to know what’s
Corbyn racks up another lacklustre PMQs
If a Prime Minister’s Questions before a Budget is rather lacklustre, then this is normally easily excused as being the Leader of the Opposition not putting as much prep as usual into a session that no-one will watch. But while today’s performance from Jeremy Corbyn was indeed lacklustre, it wasn’t any different from his offerings over the past few months. The Labour leader decided to focus on the lot of women in this country, given it was International Women’s Day at the weekend. He started with what seemed a pretty reasonable opener, which was demanding sick pay for those on zero hours contracts, particularly care workers who will need to