Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

12 Dec 2018

Four points for Tory MPs to consider before voting tonight

If I were a Tory MP, I would be worried by the timing of this vote, but, given that it is happening, I would think the following: 1. She’s trying to bounce me by making me vote tonight. 2. This is the last chance for a year, because Theresa May is rule-bound and not one to take hints. 3. I do not, in fact, have confidence in her, and so, since I’m being asked, I should say so. 4. Although I do think she is sincere in wishing to deliver what people voted for, we have learnt that she doesn’t know how to do this. We urgently need a Prime Minister who does. I am

Isabel Hardman

Heavy-handed rebel operation in no confidence vote deters Tory MPs

One of the factors driving wavering Tory MPs towards saying they will vote for Theresa May tonight is the way in which the rebel operation appears to be being conducted. It’s not just that the airwaves were dominated this morning by rather strident Brexiteers as opposed to MPs from a range of persuasions. It’s also the heavy-handed language that May’s opponents are using behind the scenes as they argue with colleagues. A number of MPs tell me they have been galvanised to support May after a ‘fairly brutal’ exchange in the Conservative MPs WhatsApp group in which Nadine Dorries, who has long called on May to consider her position, managed

Isabel Hardman

Number 10: Confidence vote is not about who leads the Tories into the next election

Theresa May doesn’t see today’s vote of no confidence as being about who will lead the Conservative party into the next election, her spokesman has just said. This is significant as it removes the possibility that the Prime Minister sees today’s result as being a mandate for her continuing as leader, when many Tory MPs do not want her to. This therefore makes it much easier for those MPs to support the Prime Minister this evening. Speaking to journalists after Prime Minister’s Questions, her spokesman said: ‘She does not believe that this vote today is about who leads the party into the next election. It is about whether it is

Katy Balls

How the Brexiteer rebels’ gamble could backfire

As things stand, the number of MPs who have come out publicly to say they will back Theresa May in a confidence vote is enough to keep her in place. However, given that it is a secret ballot and there are still five hours to go until that vote, plenty could change between now and then. Whips are nervous about the middle chunk of MPs – who tend not to kick off – but have so far failed to raise their head above the parapet to back May. But should there be no nasty surprises for May between now and the vote, the Brexiteer gamble could backfire. If May does

Ross Clark

Is business really that bothered by the prospect of May’s departure?

The world of business is, apparently, appalled by the actions of the 48 or more Conservative MPs who have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader. According to the Institute of Directors, its members are ‘tearing their hair out’ over today’s news. The message seems to be that a change of Prime Minister is an unwanted distraction when the country is already in a state of crisis. Yet markets seem to disagree. The FTSE this morning is up by more than one per cent. However negatively bosses might see the potential end of Theresa May as Prime Minister, investors in their companies seem to be

James Forsyth

What would be a good result for Theresa May tonight?

The sense in Westminster this morning is that Theresa May will win tonight’s confidence vote. So, as is the way, the conversation has immediately moved on to what would be a good result for her. Cabinet ministers are busy saying that a win is a win, whatever the margin. One points out to me that if she wins tonight, she’s PM for a year and ‘unassailable unless people want to have Corbyn as PM’. But I can’t help remembering how John Major set a floor for himself in the 1995 leadership contest without telling any of his political team. He needed 165 votes to win but resolved he’d go if

Steerpike

Theresa May has 80 per cent chance of winning the confidence vote, say bookmakers

It may be a terrible day for Theresa May, but the signs so far seem to suggest that she’s at least going to win her upcoming no confidence vote. Four of the bookmakers: Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Betway and Betfair now suggest that the Prime Minister has an 80 per cent chance of convincing her MPs to continue backing her premiership. Interestingly, Paddypower only gave the Prime Minister a 50 per cent chance of survival at the beginning of the day, but has since improved her odds in line with the other bookies. Were they convinced by the numerous ministers and MPs who have declared they will support the Prime Minister?

Isabel Hardman

How the Tory vote of no confidence in Theresa May will work

Two Tory MPs who are currently suspended from the party whip could be brought back in order to take part in today’s vote of no confidence against Theresa May, 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady revealed this morning. Briefing journalists on the vote, Brady said he was waiting for confirmation from the Chief Whip of the size of the Tory party electoral roll, and that it depended on whether Charlie Ephicke or Andrew Griffiths had the whip restored. Both men were suspended following allegations of sexual harassment, though the Conservative party concluded in November that no further action would be taken against Griffiths. Brady also said that any MPs who were

Alex Massie

Ditching Theresa May achieves nothing

Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. That, for the time being, is something even this deranged iteration of the Conservative party is not prepared to countenance. As a matter of party politics, May has been on some kind of unofficial probation ever since last year’s disastrous general election. In office, certainly, but only tolerated grudgingly. As far as the

Steerpike

Watch: Tory MPs refuse to talk on TV

It’s all out war in the Conservative party today, and as you would expect, things are already getting a little heated between Tory MPs. The rift between colleagues backing Theresa May and those calling for her to go was very apparent on BBC news this morning, where Brexiteer and letter submitter Andrew Bridgen was talking about the upcoming no confidence vote. At the end of his interview, he was then asked by Victoria Derbyshire if he was willing to stay on and chat with the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, James Cleverly – who is backing Theresa May, and who had just joined them: ‘I gather, that you don’t necessarily

James Kirkup

Tory MPs need to face reality, and back Theresa May

Tory MPs should vote for Theresa May in tonight’s confidence vote. Keeping her in place will be painful, difficult and lead to any number of awful problems. But it is far, far better than the horrors that will follow if they remove her. Even if you can, like Owen Paterson, blithely gloss over the fact that Britain would not have a permanent head of government for a month at a time of national crisis, you can’t deny the fact that changing the leader won’t change the parliamentary numbers. Nor — despite the fantasies of the Tory unicorn-herders — will it change the EU position. So the only option for a

Katy Balls

Theresa May delivers a message of defiance to her Tory critics

Theresa May has just given a defiant speech outside Downing Street in which she promised to ‘contest’ the confidence vote with ‘everything’ that she’s got. On the news that 48 confidence letters had been received by 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady, the Prime Minister said the only people a Tory leadership contest would benefit right now are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: ‘A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. A new leader wouldn’t be in place by 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations

Steerpike

The next Tory leader: runners and riders

It’s official, 48 letters of no confidence have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, triggering a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister this evening. If she loses this, she will be required to stand down and a Conservative leadership election will begin. As James reports on Coffee House, already the next potential leaders of the Tory party are jostling to take Theresa May’s place. But any Tory MP who wants to take the Conservative Party throne has a tough ride ahead. First, they have to be popular among their fellow MPs, in an internal election that narrows the process down to two candidates.

Katy Balls

Tory MPs talk up a swift Christmas leadership contest

Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May’s decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit deal had gone badly with chunks of Tory MPs ministers had seen its postponement as crucial to her short term survival. Now May will have to fight to stay on until that vote. Speaking to MPs in the Commons last night, it became clear that the hostilities towards May are far wider ranging than just

Tom Goodenough

The full list of Tory MPs backing Theresa May

With just a few moments to go until voting closes, 181 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May in the vote of confidence. Given that May needs 159 votes, their support should be enough to keep her position safe. But given that this is a secret ballot, are they as good as their word? Here is the full list of those who have vowed to back the PM: Bim Afolami: Adam Afriyie: Heidi Allen: Stuart Andrew Ed Argar Victoria Atkins Kemi Badenoch Steve Barclay: Harriett Baldwin: Henry Bellingham Richard Benyon Guto Bebb Paul Beresford Jake Berry Nick Boles: Peter Bottomley Andrew Bowie: Robert Buckland: Alistair Burt Karen Bradley Steve Brine: Jack Brereton

James Forsyth

To survive now, Theresa May could have to promise to resign later

The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening. If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another year. There, though, are a decent number of Tories MPs who don’t want her gone now, but do want her to leave soon after March 29th. They would like a new PM in place for the 2nd round of the Brexit negotiations. So what are they to do if tonight’s confidence vote? If May gives

Tom Goodenough

Breaking: Leadership contest against Theresa May triggered

In the last few moments it has been confirmed that a leadership contest against Theresa May has been triggered. The number of letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister needed to lead to a vote – 48 – is believed to have been met last night. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 committee, told Tory MPs in a message this morning that events overnight ‘have moved very quickly’ and that the threshold had now been reached. A vote is expected to take place tonight between 6pm and 8pm. It is thought that the votes will be counted immediately, meaning that if she loses, Theresa May

Tuesday

11 Dec 2018

Katy Balls

‘Tell them again’ – how the Leave campaign could look in a second referendum

The so-called People’s Vote campaign have today held an event on the need for a vote on the final Brexit deal. The screen for the event is emblazoned with a new slogan: ‘If not now, when?’ – in an attempt to argue there’s no time like the present. I’m at a ⁦@peoplesvote_uk⁩ event, the morning after yesterday’s Brexit chaos pic.twitter.com/pOBSSLDZmw — Lizzy Buchan (@LizzyBuchan) December 11, 2018 Whether or not you agree with the sentiment, more people are coming round to the idea that a second vote is likely – the odds on a second EU referendum has moved from 7/4 into Even money in recent days – as a way

Steerpike

Watch: Theresa May gets locked inside her car

Poor old Theresa May. The PM is hopping across Europe in a desperate bid to try and salvage her Brexit deal. But quite predictably things aren’t going well. After arriving in Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, Theresa May got off to a bad start – by getting locked in her car. Mr S is pleased to report that it wasn’t long before the PM was freed, although he suspects that not all Tory MPs will be pleased about that….

Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow burns Philip Hammond

John Bercow gave Labour MPs a helping hand in the Commons yesterday by making his thoughts known on the Government’s decision to delay a vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Speaker said the hold-up was ‘deeply discourteous’. But it seems he hasn’t stopped his mission of making life tricky for the Tories. Philip Hammond urged John McDonnell to vote for the PM’s withdrawal arrangement because it was the best that was on offer. But unfortunately for the Chancellor his remark teed up Bercow to take a pop at him: ‘It’s quite difficult to vote for something if there isn’t a vote’ Mr S thinks that Bercow does have a

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