Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Saturday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Women with Balls podcast: the Liz Truss edition

When Liz Truss took to the stage at the Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards, she used her speech to send up her Cabinet colleagues and boss – cracking jokes about the indefinite length of the backstop, Karen Bradley’s loose grasp of history and – in a dig at her own department – called for a ban on Treasury forecasts. So, given Truss’s straight-talking attitude, I’m delighted to have the Chief Secretary to the Treasury as my guest on the latest episode of Women with Balls: In the interview, Truss talks about the regrets of her youth ( … joining the Liberal Democrats), why she cares strongly about British cheese

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Could Dominic Grieve’s Brexit amendment launch a new party?

Inside the Dominic Grieve amendment carried on Tuesday is the embryo of a new political party. Any parliamentary majority for what Sir Oliver Letwin, who voted for the amendment, calls ‘something real’ (‘Norway plus’) if Mrs May’s deal falls would depend on the support of a good many Labour MPs. After three months’ work, the organisers believe they have got 75 such on board, led by Chuka Umunna. These are anti-Brexit, chiefly Blairite Labour MPs who cannot bear Jeremy Corbyn. If their number held up (a big ‘if’), the organisers calculate, the House could carry ‘Norway plus’, with the government and most Conservative backbenchers supporting, even if the ‘hard’ Brexiteers

John Connolly John Connolly

The full list: MPs voting for and against May’s Brexit deal

It’s the question that’s on everyone’s lips this week in Westminster: now that the Brexit negotiations have been finalised by the EU, will Theresa May be able to get her withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons? So far, the numbers are not in her favour. Labour have confirmed they will whip against her deal, as have the SNP and other opposition parties. Meanwhile the DUP have said they will vote against the proposal – rather than just abstain. That means even if Theresa May could count on complete party loyalty in the upcoming meaningful vote, she would still be four votes short of the 320 needed for a majority.

Friday

Anthony Masters

Did Vote Leave’s overspending win the referendum for Brexit?

An Oxford professor’s claim that it was “very likely” that  overspending by Vote Leave swung the referendum for Brexit has taken off like wildfire. Professor Philip Howard’s analysis made the front page of yesterday’s Independent under the headline: ‘Illegal Facebook spending ‘won 2016 vote for Leave”. So do the numbers behind the headline add up? Prof Howard, director of the Oxford Internet Institute, calculated that: Around 80 million Facebook users saw the Vote Leave campaign ads on social media during the period of excess spending; 10 per cent of users clicked through; 10 per cent of those users switched their vote as a result, giving over 800,000 switched voters. This argument

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Could Labour drop its plan for a no confidence vote?

The working assumption in Westminster at the moment is that Theresa May will lose Tuesday’s meaningful vote on her Brexit deal, and then the Labour Party will table a motion of no confidence in the government. The Tory whips certainly seem as concerned about that no confidence vote as they are about the Brexit vote, given they are resigned to losing one but have a good chance of winning the other. But I’m not sure that this is the case any more. The public language from the Opposition has changed in recent days to suggest that there will not be a separate vote after all – or at least not

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit position reveals his greatest secret: he’s a Blairite

Anyone observing or participating in the continuing collective trauma of Britain’s Brexit debate should pay more attention to Jeremy Corbyn and some of the most important — and to some people, surprising — things he has done as Labour leader. Here’s a short list: 1. Promised big handouts for the middle class. Mr Corbyn ran his 2017 general election campaign offering huge middle class subsidies from the state. Scrapping tuition fees and offering “free” universal higher education would be a gift to the better-off, whose kids still dominate university entry. (Just look at Scotland.) And the gift would be funded by non-graduate workers’ taxes. 2. Defended unearned wealth Mr Corbyn

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Chief Whip’s failed attempt to woo Philip Davies over Brexit

Oh dear. With the government on course for a historic defeat next week on Theresa May’s deal, this is the point in the campaign that Downing Street had hoped to see MPs coming round. Alas not. So, it was a curious choice by the government to allow ITV exclusive access to Chief Whip Julian Smith’s attempts to woo unruly MPs. Smith was filmed trying to convince Leaver Philip Davies to back the deal: ITV News was granted rare access to the Chief Whip's office, as he tries to rally support for the PM's Brexit deal ahead of Tuesday's vote.We caught the argument as vocal Brexiteer Philip Davies insisted he was

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

The problem with a ‘People’s Vote’

Surprise! The Economist has come out in favour of a new referendum on Brexit, joining Sadiq Khan, Tony Blair and possibly the entire cast of Strictly in calling for a People’s Vote. It observes sagely: “no one can claim to intuit what the people want. The only way to know is to ask them”. And of the PM’s peculiar tour of the nation to flog her plan (why?), it declares that it is an exercise in “pantomime” democracy:“May is right that MPs should take into account what the public think. So should she: not by guessing, but by calling on them to vote”. But on what? What all the demands for

Camilla Swift Camilla Swift

Gove is right to keep the lynx out of Northumberland

Over the few years, a battle has been quietly simmering between farming communities and a conservation organisation who want to reintroduce the Eurasian lynx to the UK. The cats have been extinct in the UK for well over a thousand years, and while farmers worry that the big cats will threaten their sheep, Lynx UK – the trust behind the plans – argue that the animals would help the economy, and cause little damage to livestock. But now Defra secretary Michael Gove has rejected a request to release six lynx into Kielder Forest, in Northumberland. The reasoning given for their decision included a lack of support from locals and major

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Why politicians should fear Project Fear

‘Project Fear’ didn’t work out in the 2016 Brexit referendum, with voters turning against the ‘experts’ maligned by Michael Gove and other Leave campaigners. So it’s strange to see the Conservatives reigniting it again in the run-up to Tuesday’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, warning of six months of disruption at Dover and other ports in the event of no deal. There’s no evidence that this squeeze message is really going to work on Tory MPs and whittle down the scale of the expected defeat next week. The return of Project Fear is also a reminder of the danger of a second referendum for those who hope that it

Anthony Browne

Why the Norway model wouldn’t work for Britain

In the corridors of Westminster and the salons of some remainers, there is a lot of excited chatter about the “Norway option”. This would involve being a member of the EEA and single market, but not of the EU. Depending on who is pushing, Norway is presented as either a temporary or permanent alternative to Theresa May’s troubled deal. But there are problems with this quick fix. The well discussed issue that being in the EEA doesn’t end freedom of movement is one; another is the fact that the Norway option doesn’t end EU budget contributions. But more fundamentally, few appreciate just how a regime that (sort of) suits Norway

Thursday

The Spectator

Barometer | 6 December 2018

Big defeats Could the vote on the Brexit deal set a record for a government defeat in the Commons? Aside from opposition day motions and other votes where nothing substantive is at stake, the post-1945 record is shamefully held by MPs who voted against the Major government’s attempt to limit pay rises for MPs (motion lost by 215 votes). Other hefty defeats (with the margin of defeat): 1978 (Labour, Jim Callaghan) Opposition amendment demanding income tax basic rate be cut from 34% to 33%, 108 votes.} 2014 (Coalition, David Cameron) Under-occupancy rules for social housing, 75 votes. 1978 (Labour, Jim Callaghan) Clause on Wales devolution referendum, 72 votes. 1975 (Labour,

The Spectator

Beyond May

On Tuesday, MPs will face something rare: a Commons motion which really does deserve to be described as momentous. It will set Britain’s place in Europe and in the world for years to come. The vote will place an especially heavy burden on Conservative MPs, for they have the power to inflict a hefty defeat on their own government, an administration which has no majority and which governs thanks only to a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP. It is all too easy to see where defeat on Tuesday could lead: to the collapse of the government, a general election and the arrival of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s notes | 6 December 2018

Inside the Dominic Grieve amendment carried on Tuesday is the embryo of a new political party. Any parliamentary majority for what Sir Oliver Letwin, who voted for the amendment, calls ‘something real’ (‘Norway plus’) if Mrs May’s deal falls would depend on the support of a good many Labour MPs. After three months’ work, the organisers believe they have got 75 such on board, led by Chuka Umunna. These are anti-Brexit, chiefly Blairite Labour MPs who cannot bear Jeremy Corbyn. If their number held up (a big ‘if’), the organisers calculate, the House could carry ‘Norway plus’, with the government and most Conservative backbenchers supporting, even if the ‘hard’ Brexiteers opposed.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Stephen Lloyd’s baffling decision to resign the Lib Dem whip

Brexit has left the three main parties that stand in England in an existential mess, split not just over the fundamental question of Leave vs Remain, but also over how to approach the deal that Theresa May has brought back from Europe. One of the odder splits tore open today, with Eastbourne MP Stephen Lloyd announcing he was resigning the Liberal Democrat whip so that he could back the government next week.  In a statement confirming his resignation, Lloyd said: “I have come to the conclusion that I cannot honestly uphold the commitment I made to Eastbourne and Willingdon two and a half years ago, and reiterated since – to

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Blair makes his pitch for a second referendum: Remain – or hard Brexit

Tony Blair has spent his lunch attempting to charm the Parliamentary Press Gallery. The former prime minister used his appearance before hacks to lay out his pitch for a second referendum. The ardent Remainer claimed that MPs were likely to come round to the idea of a second Brexit vote in the coming weeks as they would work out that there is no Parliamentary majority for any form of Brexit at present. He said that Theresa May’s deal was the worst of both worlds as it wasn’t properly leaving. As a result, Blair argued that the options on the ballot paper in a second vote should simply be ‘Remain’ and

Douglas Murray

If Brexit is abandoned, will it ever be worth voting again?

Earlier this year I was approached at a party by a prominent and slightly oiled ‘Remainer’. Amid other pleasantries she asked me, interrogatively: ‘You voted “Leave”, Douglas. Can you give me one good reason why we should still leave the EU?’. Having watched the last two-and-a-half years from the sidelines, depressed by almost the entire political debate in the UK, I could think of no argument that would be new to her. We’ve all been round this too many times before, and almost no one has conceded anything new on the subject for years. So I decided to relay the feeling that was (and still is) foremost in my mind.

Steerpike Steerpike

The Lib Dems’ big Brexit split

Anyone watching the Conservatives tear themselves apart at the moment might be tempted to think that a political party could not possibly be any more divided. Well, the Tories may now have at last some stiff competition, as the Liberal Democrats face a remarkable split over their Brexit position. Since the coalition years, the Lib Dems have vowed to never sell out their principles again like they did over tuition fees, which led to their disastrous showing in the 2015 election. Which explains why they have since relentlessly focused on the one key issue that sets them apart from the other main parties in Westminster: backing Remain and supporting a second

Robert Peston Robert Peston

What does a leaked recording reveal about Boris’s Brexit stance?

I’ve been sent a recording of a presentation made on Tuesday by the great champion of Brexit, Boris Johnson, over breakfast in Amsterdam. He was talking to “chief risk officers” of financial firms at an event called RiskMinds International, that was sponsored by, among others, the huge accounting firm PWC and the management consultancy McKinsey. Days before that big vote on Theresa May’s version of Brexit, which Johnson passionately opposes, he talks about the importance of politicians, like his hero Churchill, taking a stand against the establishment and “gambling” – making a “giant bet” – to do the right thing. I am not going to comment much on what he

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Theresa May’s meetings with her MPs are making things worse

Theresa May is continuing her efforts today to persuade Tory MPs to back her Brexit deal. It is clear that she is not going to get Commons approval for that deal on Tuesday, and is too late to drop it beforehand without another vote. What’s unclear is whether the Prime Minister is actually making the situation any better. The tally of Tory MPs who have declared in public that they will vote against the deal isn’t falling, but rising, even as backbenchers are summoned into meetings in Number 10 and the Prime Minister appears in the Commons dining rooms to try to sweet talk her party. A recurring theme among