Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Could the UK out-grow the EU after Brexit?

Collapsing retailers. A looming far-left government threatening nationalisation. And perhaps most significantly of all, our potentially chaotic rupture with our largest, closest and most significant trade partner. It doesn’t seem to matter what you throw at it, the British economy continues to be surprisingly resilient. Figures out today showed it expanded at 0.6 per cent in the third quarter, its fastest rate for a couple of years, and a rate which should keep annual growth at a more than respectable 2 per cent plus. That will come with all the usual caveats of course. It was helped by all the money we spent in the pub watching our boys do

Ross Clark

The conundrum of Britain’s continued growth

The conundrum of economic growth continues. The withdrawal process from the EU is, even by the admission of the most ardent Brexiteers, going pretty badly. We have a rearguard Remain lobby trying to talk down the economy at every opportunity – something which you might think ought to be undermining confidence. And yet still there is no sign of the Brexit-induced recession which the Treasury told us a month before the 2016 referendum would be inevitable within two years of a Leave vote. The GDP figures for the third quarter released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) this morning, show that the economy grew by 0.6 per cent in

Letters | 8 November 2018

Hubris and nemesis Sir: Douglas Murray’s assessment of Angela Merkel’s decision to stand down as German Chancellor (‘Europe’s empty throne’, 3 November) suggests a certain symmetry with the fate of our own former Prime Minister. David Cameron also declared that he would leave office at a time of his own choosing, but circumstances conspired against him. Mutti shows a great deal of presumption in announcing she will stay until the next election. If German politics bears any resemblance to our own, the very act of announcing a long goodbye will ensure that she leaves before her chosen moment. Cameron brought about his own demise by hubris, thinking he could renegotiate

James Forsyth

Deal or no deal?

When the Lisbon Treaty was signed in 2007, the inclusion of Article 50 was hailed as a concession to British Eurosceptics. For the first time there was an exit clause: a clear, legal way for a country to leave the European Union. Whatever concerns Britain had about the federalist direction of the EU, it was now at least enshrined in treaty that this country had a right to get out should MPs vote for it to do so. It was intended as a reassurance that the United Kingdom had the sovereign right to leave the EU if it wanted to. What worries cabinet members about the current Brexit plan is

Martin Vander Weyer

The Irish border issue is no mere sideshow – and UK ministers are mostly to blame

We may or may not hear news soon of a settlement of the Irish border issue that will allow Brexit to proceed without the calamity of ‘no deal’. Word this week was that Irish taoiseach Leo Varadkar might offer a compromise ‘review mechanism’ for the ‘backstop’ which might otherwise leave the UK locked in a customs union — but like me, you’re probably none the wiser as to what that actually means. History will judge this episode as a disgraceful example of politicians bluffing in the face of tough choices rather than explaining complexities or acknowledging hard facts — set out, in this case, in a Northern Ireland Affairs select

Drive-thrus

My wife and I have a set routine after landing back at Gatwick. We collect our bags, clear customs and are reunited with our car (Meet and Greet parking is by far the best value for money and avoids an hour or so of inhaling a mini-cab’s ‘vehicle deodoriser’). Then we head for the McDonalds ‘Drive-thru’ restaurant next to the BP garage, where Joanna normally goes for the Big Mac meal, while I vacillate between the McChicken sandwich and a bucket of chicken nuggets with a side order of fries. We look forward to this guilty secret so much that often we discuss our order in detail while queuing at

How will Donald Trump react to his midterm elections setback?

Midterm elections are traditionally nightmares for the party of a sitting president. Just ask former president Bill Clinton, who suffered the humiliation of seeing his Democratic Party lose 54 seats during Newt Gingrich’s 1994 Republican Revolution. Ask George W. Bush, whose blunders in Iraq cost the GOP control of both chambers of Congress in 2006. Or maybe ask Barack Obama, who candidly admitted after the electoral disaster of 2010 (in which the GOP picked up 63 seats on their way to capturing the House) that he needed to do a better job presiding over America’s economic recovery. Democrats and the thousands of hungry progressives who canvassed for them certainly hoped

Joanna Rossiter

The leaked Brexit memo exposes May’s botched strategy

The leaked plan of how the Government might try to sell the Brexit deal contains a telling passage. The memo instructs the Cabinet Office to talk up the agreement by ‘comparing it to no deal but not to our current deal’. For all the claims by a government spokesman that the ‘misspelling and childish language in this document should be enough to make clear it doesn’t represent the government’s thinking’, this key phrase is the closest we have come to a disturbing admission: that Theresa May’s deal could leave us worse off than remaining in the EU. The suggestion that this might be the case – coupled with the speed with which it seems Downing Street

Does a Democratic House win pave the way to impeachment?

At an election-night party hosted by a leading light in the Clinton White House, the hostess wore blue, anticipating the ‘blue wave’ that Democrats hope is about to sweep away the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. As I write, the Democrats are up 14 seats. They need to gain 23 to win the House. Opinion polls going into Tuesday gave them a good shot at that – and a smaller chance of winning the Senate. But then again, opinion polls predicted Donald Trump would lose and that Brexit wouldn’t happen. And some Democrats talked about how they would need a huge margin in the popular vote, as much

Steerpike

Momentum’s membership splits with Corbyn over Brexit

At Labour conference this summer, the party’s leadership were clearly spooked when its previously loyal members demanded the party support a second Brexit referendum. With this in mind, and ever keen to ensure that the rank-and-file are in step with Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing campaign group Momentum recently decided to survey its supporters to see what they really thought about Brexit and Labour’s position. The group asked over 6500 of its members from across the UK what they thought of Labour’s spurious six tests, the possibility of no deal, and most importantly: if Momentum members wanted a second Brexit vote. Well today the results came in, but they were clearly

Ross Clark

Did the Lib Dems sell data to the Remain campaign?

The rearguard Remain lobby, which has far from given up on its ambition to reverse the Brexit vote, has put much store in the alleged electoral malpractice of Aaron Banks and his Leave.EU campaign, as well as the actions of the now-defunct Cambridge Analytica. Along the way it has found the Electoral Commission and the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) eager to investigate. There has, however, been a drawback to this strategy: it has invited examination of the Remain campaign’s own spending and use of personal data. Sure enough, a report published by the ICO today offers some possible dynamite. It reads: ‘During the course of our investigation, we obtained information

James Forsyth

Second Cabinet this week to decide on Brexit backstop

It looks like today’s Cabinet will only be the first of two meetings this week. I understand that another one, which may well make an actual decision, is now likely to be held later in the week. Today’s was significant for an intervention from Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. Cox’s contribution was about balancing risks. He, I am told, did say that Northern Ireland would be under various, different regulations under the current proposals. But he said that a unilateral withdrawal mechanism—which a large number of Cabinet ministers again backed—wouldn’t be a panacea to all the UK’s problems in the Brexit talks. I am informed that Cox said even a

Britain is ripe for agriculture innovation after Brexit

Agriculture is being transformed by innovation at a rapid pace. Genetically modified crops are being grown on 190 million hectares worldwide, with on average 20 per cent higher yields and 40 per cent fewer chemicals than their non-GM counterparts. Genome editing (which involves no cross-species DNA transfer) has produced fungus-resistant wheat and disease-resistant pigs. Farmers in Ukraine and Brazil are using satellite and drone data to target fertiliser and pesticide where and when it is needed, reducing the costs and environmental impact of farming. Robots are starting to drive tractors, identify weeds and pick strawberries. New nitrogen-fixing bacteria derived from sugar cane by Nottingham University promises higher yields in maize

Theresa May will pay any price for a Brexit ‘Deal’

Halloween may be over but fear still stalks the land. As we enter the Brexit endgame, it is apparent that Theresa May plans to terrorise her turbulent troops into supporting the Chequers-style deal she has cooked up with the EU. A deal at any price? That is the Prime Minister’s position. From the very beginning of the negotiations, she has been intent on securing a deal. The lamentable events of the past two years can be traced back to this simple imperative. According to her, success in the talks equalled a deal; failure equalled no deal. And that is where I and my fellow economists in Economists for Free Trade

Steerpike

Should taxpayers pay for Chuka’s Brexit jaunt to Paris?

Chuka Umunna loves to talk Brexit, telling anyone who will listen what a disaster Britain’s departure from the EU will be. The MP for Streatham has even made several hops across the Channel to discuss the subject with European politicians. But who paid for Chuka’s recent jolly to Paris to talk Brexit? Mr S can reveal that it was the taxpayer that footed the £397 bill for Chuka’s Eurostar ticket to the French capital: So is travelling to France really the best way of representing his constituents in south London? A spokesman for Chuka said that ‘by being active in the Brexit debate, including talking to European counterparts, he is

Brendan O’Neill

The Arron Banks delusion

What do people mean when they say Arron Banks ‘bought Brexit’? That phrase is everywhere. It’s a New Statesman headline: ‘The man who bought Brexit.’ He ‘bought Brexit’, the Observer informs us, with his ‘funding of the populist, social media driven Leave.EU campaign’. OpenDemocracy, like many others, wants to know where Banks’ money comes from, so that we can finally answer the question: how could he ‘afford Brexit’? This vision of Banks ‘buying’ one of the largest democratic votes in British history, as if it were a second-hand car or something, is weird. And very revealing. What it reveals is the alarmingly low esteem in which voters are held by

Sunday Roundup – Arron Banks fights back

The day’s most anticipated interview came from Arron Banks, the businessman and co-founder of the Brexit campaign group Leave.EU, who agreed to talk with Andrew Marr. Earlier in the week, the Electoral Commission announced that it was referring Banks to the National Crime Agency amid questions over the exact source of Leave.EU’s funding for the referendum campaign in 2016. One of the central allegations raised is whether an £8 million loan came through Rock Holdings, a business based in the Isle of Man, which would contravene UK law: AM: Were you the real source of that money? AB: …Of course I was. The money came from a UK registered company.

Fraser Nelson

The Tories can’t blame BBC bias for losing a Budget spin battle

The Mail on Sunday today splashes on “the most biased BBC News bulletin in history” – a reference to the Radio 4 Today programme on the morning after the Budget. I was a guest on that programme, coming in at the end, so I should be pleased to have been a part of history. But was it really so biased? I’m not so sure. The furore is around the decision by R4 news to lead on a Resolution Foundation critique about the distributional effects of the tax cuts, saying that raising the personal allowances etc helps the richest the most. A left-wing story? Yes, but it was clearly identified as

Charles Moore

The faulty logic of a ‘Norway for Now’ Brexit

The campaign ‘Norway for Now’, an idea promoted by Nick Boles, is that Britain should join the European Economic Area and EFTA, until such time as we can move further out of the EU, for example with a Canada-style free-trade deal. This is what Norway and Iceland and Liechtenstein do. The idea sounds nice as a friendly and temporary compromise. But in fact the psychology is wrong. Such arrangements were devised more as an entry chamber to full membership (which is what Norwegian elites still want) than as part of an exit strategy. The Norwegian Prime Minister is now making this point. The point of Leave is to escape the gravitational