Politics Archives

Tuesday

30 Jan 2018

Steerpike

What the BBC won’t tell you about the leaked Brexit forecasts

The leaked government Brexit forecasts have this morning been reported by the BBC just as its leakers intended: as embarrassing proof that Brexit is bad for the economy. If it had any vague interest in being impartial, perhaps the Beeb would have bothered to make the rather obvious point: not only have we seen such forecasts before, but the new figures are more optimistic than HM Treasury’s last effort. The government’s April 2016 analysis said that the economy would be 3.8 percentage points smaller than it otherwise would have in 15 years if we were to stay in the EEA; that has now been revised down to a 2pc hit.

Steerpike

Angela Merkel’s Theresa May jibe

Theresa May’s not having a good few weeks. With Tories scrambling to either criticise their leader or covertly campaign to be the next leader, May’s premiership appears to be on shaky ground once more. Add to this a backlash from Conservative Brexiteers and a government Brexit forecast leak and it’s safe to conclude things aren’t about to get better anytime soon. Now it seems she can’t even rely on her European allies for support. ITV’s Robert Peston reports that May was the punchline to a joke Angela Merkel told hacks at Davos. He says that the German chancellor had journalists in stitched when she told a story about May’s negotiating

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Eurosceptics are wrong to ‘rage over the Brexit transition’

Michel Barnier’s Brexit transition deal offer – under which Britain will continue to pay into the EU’s budget and have no say on rules – has not gone down well with some Brexiteers. The Daily Telegraph says that this suggestion means that the date of when Brexit will happen has effectively been pushed back until December 31st 2020. The paper says that it was right for Theresa May to initially lay out a request for a two-year transition deal during her Florence speech last year. But since the PM made that speech, Britain has been too ‘meek’ in obeying the EU and allowing Brussels to ‘call all the shots’. This

Monday

29 Jan 2018

Isabel Hardman

Theresa May’s caution about appearing weak has made her even weaker

Can Theresa May really solve the latest crisis affecting her leadership? Previously, her survival owed a great deal to Conservative backbenchers, who vowed to protect her against a badly-behaved Cabinet, but everyone is restless now. So what can she do? The Prime Minister isn’t going to have a personality transplant, but this doesn’t mean that she is destined to continue doing absolutely nothing. She may never be able to conjure up small talk with her own MPs, but she has in the past shown that she can make bold decisions (the snap election was, admittedly, a bad example of this) and have a reforming zeal. The absence of any activity

Ross Clark

The myth of the 2017 ‘youthquake’

So was it Corbyn’s appeal to younger voters what swung last year’s general election in his favour? Not according to the British Election Study (BES) which today publishes a paper questioning the received wisdom that Labour’s unexpectedly strong showing was down to a surge of support from younger voters who managed to cast off their apathy for the first time. Indeed, claims the team, the Oxford English Dictionary may have been a bit premature in declaring ‘Youthquake’ as its word of the year. The idea that Corbyn managed to inspire a generation of normally-apathetic youngsters was cast very early in the post-election analysis when it was noticed that some seats snatched

James Forsyth

Don’t sweat the Brexit transition deal

There are many things to worry about with Brexit, but the terms of the transition should be pretty low down that list. The transition was always going to have to be off-the-shelf (if you could negotiate a bespoke transition, you might as well do the final deal) and as long as it is time-limited, it shouldn’t be a problem. Indeed, it should help smooth out Britain’s exit from the European Union. Bill Cash’s urgent question today was another sign of how some Tory Eurosceptics are becoming more and more concerned about the terms of the transition, and how it will make Britain—in effect—a non-voting member of the EU. Jacob Rees-Mogg’s

Tom Gross

The truth about Iran is now of little importance to Jeremy Corbyn

If any further evidence was needed about the disingenuousness of Jeremy Corbyn and the dangers a government led by him might pose internationally – not just for Britain but also for Britain’s Nato allies – it is worth watching Corbyn’s interview on Iran with the BBC’s Andrew Marr yesterday. ‘You’ve been very reluctant to condemn the government of Iran. Can I read you what Amnesty International has said about Iran… ?’ began Marr yesterday, to which Corbyn interrupted him with the extraordinary response: ‘I think that actually, if I may say so, you’re spending too much time reading the Daily Mail, do you know that?’ Having failed to read Corbyn

Sunday

28 Jan 2018

Katy Balls

Conservative MPs should be careful what they wish for

How much trouble is Theresa May in? Just three weeks ago, it looked as though the Prime Minister was at her strongest point since the disastrous snap election. Now, the BBC 10 o’clock news is leading on questions about her survival – with reports of irrepairable drift, Brexit rifts. The Sunday papers are filled with a deluge of negative headlines depicting a party out of control – including on-the-record criticism from Conservative MPs. Former minister Theresa Villiers has gone on the airwaves to warn that the Prime Minister could be about to sell a lie on Brexit. What’s more, reports claim that the influx of letters to Graham Brady continues to

Steerpike

Toff sends Downing Street into a spin

Since Georgia ‘Toff’ Toffolo won I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here, the Conservatives have been left with a dilemma over whether to utilise their celebrity supporter. A proud Conservative, Toff kindly volunteered to utilise her million followers for the party only for brains at CCHQ to block any such move over concerns she’s ‘too posh to win over Labour supporters’. Although the Conservative consensus has since changed in favour of bringing her into the tent, it seems it may be a case of too little, too late. In an interview with Sunday Times Style magazine, Toff comes across a little bit disgruntled about her recent interactions with the

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows roundup: Donald Trump, Jeremy Corbyn, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Theresa Villiers

David Lidington – Conservative family ‘must come together’ The Cabinet Office Minister and Theresa May’s de facto deputy David Lidington has urged his colleagues to unite behind her after a week that has highlighted her precarious position. Fears have arisen among Conservative MPs that the party is facing annihilation in London and Birmingham in the local elections this spring, and the Chair of the 1922 Committee has signalled that he is dangerously close to the threshold of signatures for an automatic vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Speaking to Andrew Marr, Lidington put up a spirited defence of the government’s record and urged his colleagues to ‘come together’:

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn’s short-term memory on Iran

It’s happened. Jeremy Corbyn has finally broken his silence on Iran. To be fair, he was rather forced into doing so when Andrew Marr raised the topic live on air this morning. Marr put to the Labour leader – who says ‘to stay neutral in times of injustice is to side with the oppressor’ – that he had gone rather quiet on Iran after over 20 people died and more gone missing following clashes between protesters and security forces. .@AndrewMarr9: "You've been very reluctant to condemn the government of Iran" @jeremycorbyn: "You're spending too much time reading the Daily Mail… "https://t.co/Yhj91ijeum #marr pic.twitter.com/g3bCzxZYV6 — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) January 28,

Steerpike

Damian Green’s hopeless Twitter gaffe

Oh dear. It’s not turning out to be an easy Sunday morning for Theresa May. The front pages are emblazoned with headlines like ‘Tories in turmoil’ and the ones inside aren’t much better. There are reports of more letters calling for a confidence vote in the Prime Minister making their way to Graham Brady. Meanwhile, Tory MP Jonny Mercer has predicted (while promoting his new book) that Jeremy Corbyn ‘could well be prime minister if we don’t get our sh-t together’. But surely May can still rely on her closest allies to back her up? Perhaps not. Damian Green – May’s close friend who she sacked as First Secretary of State

Saturday

27 Jan 2018

Isabel Hardman

MPs are making the refit of Parliament all about them. It isn’t.

Theresa May likes to avoid awkward rows at all costs: that much we already know. Today’s papers carry two stories showing this: she is said to be abandoning plans to give a Brexit speech just in case it causes further divisions in her Cabinet, and is also racking up what The Times estimates is a £230 million bill by delaying the refurbishment of Parliament. Both the Cabinet and Parliament are dangerously unstable, with chunks falling from them every day. The latter, though, has been here a long time, is one of the most famous buildings in the world, and attracts vast numbers of tourists. Philip Hammond and Greg Clark don’t

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s lack of a Brexit vision is costing her, and the country

Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond are further apart on Brexit than anyone else in the inner Cabinet. But there is one thing they agree on, I say in The Sun this morning. In the last 10 days, both of them have expressed their frustration to close allies that Theresa May won’t make a decision; that Britain is at a nation-defining moment in its history and that there is no real leadership. Their interventions are an attempt to provide that leadership, to give people an idea of what Brexit will be like. Absurdly, the Brexit inner Cabinet did not meet this week despite the fact that there is not yet a

Charles Moore

Why isn’t the Tory power vacuum more exciting?

As I walked across Horse Guards one day last week, everything seemed eerily quiet. No one was about, and the only object I could see was a sleek limousine parked where one is not allowed to park, facing Downing Street. As I approached, I could read its number-plate, which said ‘1 VEN’. Was this the beginning of the long-awaited Corbyn coup, backed by fraternal aid from Nicolás Maduro? I cannot yet answer my own question for certain, because although Theresa May is still referred to as the ‘Prime Minister’ and even holds ‘cabinet meetings’, no one seriously suggests that she — or they — transact the business of government. Supporters

Friday

26 Jan 2018

Katy Balls

David Davis attempts to ease Tory nerves over Brexit transition

A row is underway in the Conservative party over the Brexit transition period. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the all-powerful European Research Group (the Brexit wing of the Tory party), has said he would rather extend Article 50 than have a transition period in which the UK is a rule-taker from the EU. Despite this, a transition period is what’s on the menu for Britain come March 2019. So, David Davis attempted to use his speech today on the topic to try and calm Tory nerves. The Brexit Secretary tried to provide a voice of calm (and a voice of true Brexit) after Philip Hammond sparked anger on Thursday with

Steerpike

Amber Rudd’s fighting fund

Amber Rudd is frequently touted as a frontrunner in any Tory leadership race, but the Home Secretary has kept schtum on whether or not she actually fancies her chances. So, is Rudd secretly readying herself for a shot at getting the top job when May steps down? Mr S. only asks because Rudd lists a donation towards a ‘fighting fund’ in the latest MPs’ register of interests: Of course, the money is probably going towards ensuring that Rudd actually manages to cling on in her marginal constituency of Hastings and Rye. She narrowly avoided being ousted from the seat at last year’s snap election, beating her Labour rival by just

Steerpike

Davos disagreement: Theresa May’s crowd size

It’s no great secret that Davos isn’t Theresa May’s natural habitat. Whether it’s eschewing meetings with businessmen to have a private fondue or giving speeches warning the guests at the event, the Prime Minister isn’t a natural at the flashy meeting of the global elite. So, reports that May spoke to a half-empty crowd yesterday have been quick to do the rounds on social media, with users joking that the one thing May and Trump have in common is an inability to pull in a crowd (as with his inauguration). Politico report that the crowd’s reaction ‘was extremely muted’ – and that Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator, ‘chose to join

Steerpike

Watch: Chris Williamson’s hostile reception on Question Time

Although Chris Williamson recently exited the Labour frontbench – by mutual agreement – the loyal Corbynista has vowed to do what he can for Jeremy Corbyn from the back bench. And this he did on Question Time on Thursday when he joining David Dimbleby for the weekly current affairs show. Speaking on a panel comprised of Michael Forsyth, Fiona Hyslop MSP, Maggie Chapman and Peter Oborne, Williamson did his best to fly the flag for the Labour leader. Only he soon ran into a spot of bother when an audience asked him why if the Labour party was so big and great, Jeremy Corbyn was the best they could come up

Ross Clark

Theresa May’s stop-and-search shake-up is costing lives

Theresa May has a very big failure to her name, but strangely few people seem to want to pick her up on it. The latest crime figures show a sharp increase in recorded offences in England and Wales, especially in knife crime, which rose 21 per cent to 37,443 incidents. This continues a trend which began four years ago, since when the number of recorded knife offences has risen by half. It reverses an equally sharp fall in recorded knife crime between 2010, when Theresa May became Home Secretary, and 2014. What happened to bring about the end of what looks like a very successful period of tackling knife crime?