Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

James Forsyth

Theresa May is heading for trouble over the Brexit ‘divorce’ bill

ICM, who Vote Leave used for their own referendum polling, have some striking numbers on what elements of an EU exit deal British voters would find acceptable. 54 per cent of voters regard maintaining free movement as part of a transition deal – something that Theresa May wouldn’t rule out in her interview with Andrew Neil – as acceptable. However, there is clearly going to be a big problem with any exit payment. 64 per cent regard a £10 billion payment as unacceptable, with that figure rising to 70 per cent for a £20 billion payment—which is at the low end of what people in Brussels think Britain ought to

Tom Goodenough

The great Brexit exodus of EU students isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

Remember the hoo-ha about the sharp fall in the number of EU students applying to study at British universities? Numbers were down, we were told, and there was only one reason: Brexit. In the months since the referendum, applications from EU students have fallen by seven per cent. Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of Universities UK, told MPs they were ‘concerned about EU numbers’. These Brexit jitters were nothing new; in its initial application stage which ended in October, Cambridge University announced a 14.1 per cent dip year-on-year in students from the continent applying to study there. A spokesman for the university said there was ‘considerable uncertainty’ felt by EU students in the wake of the

Steerpike

Corbynite MP’s supermarket trip riles his fellow Labour MPs

When Theresa May was snapped shopping in Waitrose last year, the Prime Minister was praised by the Telegraph for putting the politics of envy to one side by unapologetically shopping in the high-end supermarket. But is the real story that she was in a supermarket to begin with? Mr S only asks after Richard Burgon — the Corbynista shadow justice secretary — took to social media on Friday to ‘reflect’ on a trip to his local supermarket, Seacroft Tesco. One of Burgon’s constituents was apparently rather surprised to see him in the shop. This led Burgon — who failed to visit the City during his time as shadow City minister — to

Sunday political interviews round-up: ‘Show resolve’ over Gibraltar

Michael Howard – ‘Show resolve’ over Gibraltar Former Conservative leader Michael Howard caused a stir on social media after his appearance on the Sunday Politics regarding his comments about Spain and Gibraltar. Interviewed by Andrew Neil, Howard stated that the British government should respond ‘as it has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar.’ He then continued: ‘35 years ago this week Andrew, another woman Prime Minister sent a taskforce halfway across the world to protect another small group of British people against another Spanish speaking country, and I’m absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to

Fraser Nelson

The EU’s Gibraltar mistake

It was quite right for Theresa May to not mention Gibraltar in her Article 50 letter – why should the future of its people be in question in our negotiations? To do so would be to introduce a dangerous notion: that Gibraltar and its people were somehow a bargaining chip. Of course, the press will have fun with the idea that the Prime Minister forgot Gibraltar but far more plausible is Tim Shipman’s story in the Sunday Times today that the idea of mentioning it in the Brexit letter was raised several times – and rejected. That the EU has brought Gibraltar up as part of the Brexit deals right now is strange and shows a worrying

European politics is following in Israeli footsteps

For Israelis, Europe’s political landscape is looking increasingly familiar. Whereas Israel was once seen as something of a political backwater, nowadays it’s European politicians who seem to be gazing across to Israel for inspiration. Those on the right are leading the way: from Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders to Austria’s Norbert Hofer, this group of populist politicians are tending to see in Israel’s brand of nationalism a model for their own. In January, Le Pen spoke of a ‘patriotic spring‘ of nationalism in Europe; she went on to say that ‘we are experiencing the return of nation-states’. And who better to provide inspiration for that than Israel? Le Pen – despite her father saying that

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s Brexit negotiation has got off to a good start

There’s an awfully long way to go, but the Brexit negotiations got off to a good start for Theresa May this week I say in The Sun today. Number 10’s great worry was that there would be an immediate no from the EU to what it proposed. That is why May’s Article 50 letter was written in such a conciliatory and constructive tone—it was meant to be impossible to simply say no to. This approach has had some success. In his negotiating guidelines, EU Council President Donald Tusk doesn’t suggest that the UK has to hand over the so-called divorce payment before trade talks can start—something which would have been

The European Council pulls its punches in its draft Brexit plan

So we have the first sight of the European Council’s draft negotiating guidelines. They’re much more constructive that we would have been lead to believe. And there are no big surprises. The first headline point is that there is no mention of the €60 billion figure which Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission have loved to go on about. In fact no figure is mentioned at all. The section on money is restricted to saying that debts will need to be settled – something Theresa May has already acknowledged. It does not say when the cheque needs to be signed: A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the

Ross Clark

Britain’s borrowing binge – not Brexit – should be the big worry for the Bank of England

So, the Office of National Statistics has confirmed that the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2016, and by 1.8 per cent over the course of the year. Can we now please stop worrying about a post-Brexit recession and worry instead about an unsustainable consumer boom fed by interest rates which remain at panic levels. The bad news this morning is that the UK saving ratio – which is an estimate of the percentage of their income which households are saving – has fallen sharply from 5.3 per cent to 3.3 per cent. That takes it lower than it was a decade ago, just before

Fraser Nelson

Confirmed: UK economic growth accelerated after the Brexit vote

All of the blank ink that the FT used on the day after the Brexit vote, all of those predictions of the job losses and recessions – and still, the economy still refuses to behave as those economists predicted. Not only did British economic growth actually accelerate after the Brexit vote (GDP now confirmed at 0.7pc up in the last three months of 2016) but the confidence continues. A Deloitte survey of chief financial officers finds their optimism at an 18-month high as they become more relaxed about Brexit. As has the Bank of England (see below).

Ed West

Now is not a good time to be making enemies

I always thought leaving the EU would be a cause for celebration, but the sight of Donald Tusk accepting the Article 50 letter this week just made me feel a bit sad, and that we had let down our friends and neighbours. One of the things Brexit has done is made me realise how European I feel, and I’m sure I’m not alone. I always found Vote Leave’s whole Commonwealth shtick a bit disingenuous, because we have far more in common with the Dutch and the Germans than with most non-European countries, even those we did forcibly make part of our empire against their will. Sure, the Asian economy is

The EU’s Brexit strategy, full text

On 29 March 2017, the European Council has received the notification by the United Kingdom of its intention to withdraw from the European Union and Euratom. This allows for the opening of negotiations as foreseen by the Treaty. European integration has brought peace and prosperity to Europe and allowed for an unprecedented level and scope of cooperation on matters of common interest in a rapidly changing world. Therefore, the Union’s overall objective in these negotiations will be to preserve its interests, those of its Member States, its citizens and its businesses. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the Union creates significant uncertainties that have the potential to cause disruption, in

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: The Great Repeal Bill is the ‘blueprint’ for taking back control

The Great Repeal Bill has been unveiled – and Whitehall is already alive with the sound of copying and pasting as bureaucrats scramble to carry over EU law on to the statute book. With the Brexit clock ticking, is the Government up to the task? Make no mistake, this bill is the ‘the blueprint for restoring the supremacy of Parliament,’ says the Daily Mail. For nearly 50 years, ‘the unelected judges of the European Court’ have been in control of our legal system. But no more: ‘This Bill puts legislative power back where it belongs – in the hands of British MPs and British judges’. Of course, the process of

James Kirkup

Remainers must learn from the optimism of the Brexiteers

In an age when people pride themselves on their cynicism, it’s almost touching to remember that one of the most powerful forces in politics is still optimism. We may routinely dismiss politicians as self-serving vermin, but when the time comes, we generally choose the self-serving vermin who tell the best story of a brighter tomorrow. Better a smiling cockroach than a gloomy one. Optimism is one of the great fault-lines that run beneath the Brexit debate, one that helps explain why the Brexiteers are making the running and why those who still stand opposed to Brexit still have a lot to learn. Simply, the Brexiteers are setting the pace because

Steerpike

Watch: Len McCluskey’s polling claims backfire on Question Time

On last night’s Question Time, David Dimbleby chaired a panel — comprised of Ruth Davidson, Lisa Nandy, Paul Nuttall, Len McCluskey and the IEA’s Kate Andrews — from Carlisle. With the Unite election underway, McCluskey — who is standing for re-election — tried to use his appearance to defend Labour’s bad polling under Jeremy Corbyn, Explaining why his comrade had such bad popularity ratings, Red Len criticised the MSM (aka Mainstream Media) for creating a ‘horrible horrible media barrier’. But the bigger problem, according to Len, is the PLP. He said that before the Labour coup last summer — which saw Corbyn’s shadow cabinet resign and Owen Smith mount a leadership challenge

Diary – 30 March 2017

Last week’s events in London raised a recurrent dilemma for journalists, including me. It is a huge story when a terrorist kills four people then is shot down in Palace Yard, Westminster. Yet dare we say how fortunate we are that since 9/11 Muslim terrorists have proved incapable of mounting an attack remotely as lethal as that on the Twin Towers? An intelligence officer told me recently that he worries far more about Russia than about Muslim suicidalists, and this must be the rational assessment. The public needs awakening to the menace posed by Vladimir Putin’s adventurism. Meanwhile, Khalid Masood’s dreadful deed reflects the flailings of a death cult. These will

Barometer | 30 March 2017

First through the exit Is Britain the first country to leave the EU? — As a full part of France, Algeria was effectively a member of the Common Market between 1957 and 1962. That ceased upon independence in 1962. — Greenland joined as part of Denmark in 1973. After winning home rule it held a referendum on membership in 1982, and 53 per cent voted to leave. — The Caribbean island of Saint Barthélemy became a member of the EU as part of Guadeloupe, an overseas department of France. This ceased when Guadeloupe seceded. Deal or no deal International Trade Secretary Liam Fox’s department has set up working groups with 15

Moving on | 30 March 2017

Most people are glad to see the end of a referendum campaign, but the losing side always wants to keep going. Nicola Sturgeon has this week demanded a second vote on independence, in defiance of public opinion. And as Brexit talks begin, the country is still divided, with many people wishing to see the negotiations break down and the referendum result be overturned. The Prime Minister will need to fight these two battles in different ways. In Scotland, she must take care not to fall into the nationalists’ traps. Ms Sturgeon ran for office promising not to call a second referendum unless it was ‘clear’ that a ‘majority of people

The Great Repeal Bill will bring both continuity and change

The Government has set out the White Paper in advance of its proposed Great Repeal Bill.  The Bill is not necessary for the UK to leave the EU.  The Prime Minister has triggered Article 50, relying on the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017, and the UK is now on its way out of the EU.  When the Article 50 process ends, the EU Treaties will cease to apply to the UK.   The expiry of the Treaties will change UK law in significant ways.  The Great Repeal Bill is intended to minimise legal discontinuity and to maximise certainty for business and citizens.  If enacted, it will repeal the European