Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

Andrew Lilico

The Treasury’s Brexit short-term impacts analysis: A bit high, a lot political

The Treasury’s analysis of the short-term impact of Brexit offers us two scenarios for the two years following the referendum: a base ‘shock’ and a ‘severe shock’ scenario. The base case means 3.6pc less economic growth in the two years following Brexit, with inflation up 2.3 percentage points and house prices down 10pc. A first thing to grasp is the connection between the scenarios in this report and those in the previous Treasury report on the longer-term impact of Brexit. In its long-term impacts, the Treasury had three scenarios, for each of three options it claimed the UK had for its trade arrangements post-Brexit (all of which were very unlikely): an ‘EEA’ option; a ‘Canada’ option

Raoul Ruparel

Brexit might cause a short-term shock but it won’t be as bad as the Treasury makes out

There’s already quite a wide consensus around the basic assumption of the Treasury’s latest report that there would be a short-term economic shock from leaving the EU. However, it’s nigh on impossible to credibly foresee the size of this shock. And by going too far on such estimates the Treasury risks undermining the consensus already in its favour. Contrary to what one may be tempted to assume, short-term economic forecasts are often harder to make than longer-term ones. Making reasonable assumptions about how policy choices a few years down the line shift economic growth from a baseline is a slightly easier exercise than trying to predict short-term market movements –

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow takes Bernard Jenkin to task in the Commons

Although Bernard Jenkin tabled an urgent question today, the Conservative politician didn’t seem to feel any sense of urgency when it came to arriving in time to read it. As John Bercow called Jenkin’s name, the Eurosceptic MP was nowhere to be seen — leading MPs to joke that he was busy in Brussels. ‘I find it very hard to believe that the honourable gentleman is in Brussels,’ Bercow replied. When he did eventually arrive, Bercow launched into a lengthly tirade about Jenkin’s timekeeping skills: ‘It’s a considerable discourtesy when I grant the honourable gentleman’s urgent question application when he’s not here at once, he should be in the Chamber, This must not happen again.

Ed West Ed West

The working-class vote explains the rise of Austria’s far-right

So Austria has a new leader. The radical leftist Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Green party leader running as an independent, has just edged out radical right-wing politician Norbert Hofer in one of the closest elections in European history. After postal votes were counted, Van der Bellen had 50.2 per cent and Hofer 49.8 per cent – a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Most of the continent will probably breath a sigh of relief while still being disturbed at the size of the radical right vote; more shocking, perhaps, is the fact that among the working-class, there was almost unanimous support for Hofer, with the Freedom Party receiving 86 per

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Boris hits back in Brussels banana row. But has he got his facts right this time?

Boris has hit back in the row over whether Brussels tells Brits what types of bananas we can eat. Last week, he was accused of ‘making it up as he went along‘ after claiming that the European Union prevented the fruit from being sold in bunches of more than ‘two or three’. But instead of being quiet about them today, Boris has used his Brexit battlebus stop in York to insist that Brussels does meddle with our bananas. As Isabel Hardman reports, the former Mayor decided to take on those who had ridiculed him about his claims regarding EU control over bananas. He said he had looked into it and

James Forsyth James Forsyth

There are Tory modernisers supporting Brexit — just ask Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton coming out so strongly for Brexit is important for two reasons. First, it is a reminder that the idea that, within the Tory party, this referendum is the modernisers versus the right is far too crude. There are Tory modernisers on both sides of this argument. Indeed, given the importance of localism to Tory modernisation and its appreciation that there’s a difference between being pro-big business and pro-market, there are thoroughly modernising reasons for wanting the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. Hilton also details how it was the experience of government that tipped many Tories into backing Brexit. It was the discovery of just how much

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

On the EU campaign trail with Boris

Boris Johnson is on the Vote Leave campaign trail in York this morning, and has just addressed a medium-sized crowd in the city centre. Unlike some of the election rallies that we saw last year, there were some real members of the public attending – and a chap who had turned up to egg he former Mayor, but didn’t manage to. Boris turns to the chap who had brought an egg to throw at him and tells him people are going hungry pic.twitter.com/z6Wfl7eRwD— Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman) May 23, 2016 Afterwards, the failed egger claimed he had never intended to throw the egg, but had just brought it along to ’cause

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Post-referendum, will David Cameron accept that all’s fair in love and war?

This weekend’s public spat between David Cameron and Penny Mordaunt about whether Britain can stop the accession of new countries such as Turkey into the European Union looks like just another row in the referendum campaign. Every day one figure on one side makes a claim that riles the other side, and a war of press releases and broadcast interviews ensues. But this particular row doesn’t just tell us a lot about where the two camps are in the campaign, but also makes a considerable difference both to the campaign and to the aftermath of the vote. Firstly, it is clear that the Tory party is going to take a

Steerpike Steerpike

David Cameron’s former adviser Steve Hilton backs Brexit

Although David Cameron is keen to suggest of late that the dubious bunch backing Brexit includes Vladimir Putin and Isis, he may have more trouble brushing aside the latest figure to support Leave. The Prime Ministers former director of strategy Steve Hilton has penned an article for the Daily Mail in which he reveals why Britain ‘must’ quit the EU. Hilton — who is one of Cameron’s closest friends — says the UK is ‘literally ungovernable’ as a democracy while it remains in the EU: ‘I believe it is [about] taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.’ Hilton also takes aim at

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The Treasury dishes up more Brexit fearmongering. Will it work?

It’s now exactly one month until the EU referendum and the Treasury has marked the moment with another economic warning about the consequences of Brexit. The analysis out today claims that walking away from the European Union would kick-start a year-long recession. Brexit would also lower the country’s economic growth down by 3.6 per cent, according to the analysis. Although George Osborne must be nearing the point of running out of words to describe the economic ramifications of Brexit, in an article in the Daily Telegraph, Osborne and Cameron had this to say: ‘It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy. The analysis

Sunday

Steerpike Steerpike

Labour’s attempt to get on first-name terms with voters backfires

Oh dear. Spare a thought for whichever bright spark at Labour HQ is responsible for today’s email on the EU referendum. The message — which has been sent out to party supporters — asks voters to help Labour campaign to remain in the EU. To do this, they are keen to take the personal approach — inviting readers to share the reasons they will be voting In. The email also urges recipients to donate money. Alas, a technical glitch means that the email has struck the wrong chord with would-be supporters. Instead of individually addressing each email to the recipient by name, all the emails begin with ‘Dear Firstname’: A second email has

Henry Williams

Europhiles shouldn’t be surprised that Cornwall supports Brexit

As a proud Cornishman I was delighted earlier this month to be chatting to a young American fashion designer who excitedly told me about his growing label. ‘We’ve just taken on two students from Foolmoof, that’s how you say it right?’ I think he meant Falmouth whose university – specialising in creative industries – has been one of the recent success stories in Cornwall. I’ve also come across graphics designers for Pixar in the badlands west of Penzance. They have been using the superfast broadband network to pass their animations back and forth with LA. For all its Doc Martin appeal, Cornwall is not a parochial backwater, and thanks to

Saturday

Theo Hobson Theo Hobson

Even religious polemics can’t inject any life into the Brexit debate

Churches are generally ideal venues for public debates. But there’s a slight chance that a speech about the perils of EU membership will be interrupted by a homeless person doing a pee in the corner. At a debate on Christian responses to the EU at St James the Less church in Pimlico last night, Giles Fraser left off quoting his hero Tony Benn on the evil of unaccountable power in order to do his muscular Christian duty and help eject the man, who spluttered invective as he departed. Did I imagine it or did he shout ‘Fexit Brexit’? A bit earlier, his opponent Ben Ryan had set out an optimistic

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Don’t believe the Tory grumbling: HS2 is on the way

There’s a lot of negativity around HS2, and I sniff a Brexit connection. You might think Leave campaigners whose aim is to boost British self-belief would promote the idea that we have a talent for grands projets such as the Olympic Park and Crossrail, rather than a propensity to deliver half what’s promised at double the cost. But there’s also an overlap between Tory MPs opposed to the northbound high-speed rail link, usually because it bisects their constituencies, and Tory MPs opposed to the government on the EU referendum. So I suspect that’s where the trouble lies. The spin is that cabinet secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood is reviewing the project

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Boris, Cameron ruck over EU

David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the two biggest beasts in the Tory jungle. But they are currently involved in an increasingly undignified scrap over Brexit. As I say in The Sun today, it is hard to see how it ends well for both of them or the Tory party.  As one Cabinet Minister lamented to me recently, ‘it is a personal fight’ between Cameron and Boris and that ‘the Conservative party is on a hiding to nothing.’ Boris and Brexit is the itch that Cameron can’t resist scratching. When Iain Dale asked him about Boris going Out, Cameron—in effect—accused the former Mayor of putting his personal ambition ahead of

Ben Page

Brits are worried that the economy will tank – but still wouldn’t trust Labour with it

Amid all the fun and games of the EU referendum campaign, the polls suggest that economic anxiety is growing, along with concern about the government’s economic management. Voters are worried, but they don’t think Labour would do any better. Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since March 2013, and only 18 per cent believe the economy will improve over the next year. Many more are pessimistic. It’s worth noting that this isn’t necessarily a sign of a slump because for most of this century – long before the Crash of 2008, the public were pessimistic about the economy – even though it grew after year after year. However, it is normally unhelpful news for

Matthew Shaddick

The bookmakers are giving up on the chances of Brexit

The EU referendum is only weeks away and while the pollsters aren’t offering much certainty about the result, on the betting markets it’s a different story. Bookies have seen a very substantial swing toward Remain over the last few days. The odds on the UK staying in Europe have collapsed from 1/3 last week to 1/5 today. This shows that the chances of Brexit are now at a new low of just 21 per cent compared to the giddy heights of 40 per cent at the end of 2015. On balance, the polls have probably been better for Remain recently, but there’s still a lot of variance, with some surveys still

Friday

Jennifer Williams

Can Andy Burnham actually win Greater Manchester’s mayoral election?

After months of local campaigning, backbiting and press releasing, the Greater Manchester mayoral election has finally piqued the national attention. Andy Burnham’s apparently sudden declaration he will run for the role has thrust the race into the limelight. There may be more than a hint of cockiness to his claim that the competition needs a ‘big name’ to raise its profile, but there is also more than a hint of truth. Unlike the London race, there has so far been little momentum to its poorer northern relative. But for Andy Burnham the question that really matters, given that the Labour candidacy is likely to determine who becomes mayor of 2.5m people next year,

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

This luvvies’ letter warning against Brexit isn’t worth the paper it’s written on

Politicians from across the spectrum have had their say on Brexit. So, too, have various business leaders. Spy chiefs have spoken out. And even Ian Botham has chipped in to spell out his opinion on the EU referendum. So it was probably just a matter of time before the luvvies did the same. And today they’ve done just that: Jude Law, Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch are amongst some 300 actors and musicians who have backed the call for Britain to stay in the EU. In a letter, put together by Britain Stronger in Europe, they urged Britain not to become ‘an outsider shouting from the wings’. The letter goes

Steerpike Steerpike

Revealed: how Corbyn’s comrade promised to ‘turf out’ white members from Momentum Black ConneXions

In March this year, Momentum’s Marlene Ellis found herself in the news accused of describing Chuka Umunna as not ‘politically black’. The activist — who has appeared alongside Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott — denied the claims, explaining that while she was not referring to Umunna specifically, she thought it was time MPs — black and white — had more of a ‘politically black perspective’: ‘We don’t think that politicians, black and white, have enough of a politically black perspective and would like to see more MPs, black and white, putting anti-racism and black liberation more at the heart of their politics.’ However, despite her pledge that she