Politics Archives

Thursday

27 Oct 2016

Today’s GDP figures show the ‘inevitable’ Brexit recession wasn’t so inevitable after all

So now we know. The recession that we were told would be ‘inevitable’ if we voted to leave the EU was not quite so inevitable after all. In fact, it hasn’t happened at all. The Office of National Statistics’ first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter has the economy growing by 0.5 per cent. Though this is just an early estimate and could well be revised – revision upwards or downwards of 0.1 to 0.2 per cent are perfectly normal – it is certainly not indicating a recession, which would be two quarters of negative growth. It is pretty much in line with how the economy was growing

Fraser Nelson

GDP data shows strong growth in UK economy after Brexit vote. Who’d have thunk it?

After the Brexit vote, the Financial Times summed up the general mood in the City by running a weekly doomometer, which was expected to chart the impending economic collapse in real time. But after a brief wobble, the economy got back to normal fairly quickly. Soon, the weekly data started to rather contradict the mood of panic – which baffled the various experts, many of whom had by then forecast an immediate recession. Pieces of good economic news were dismissed as deceptive snapshots. And when Q2 GDP came in looking very strong – 0.6 per cent (it was revised up to 0.7 per cent today) – that was dismissed as containing

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: May’s Brexit plan and EU leaders’ ‘rudeness’ towards Britain

Theresa May was widely praised in yesterday’s papers after the Government backed a third runway at Heathrow. And there are more plaudits for the Prime Minister in today’s editorials. The Sun says that yesterday’s figures showing the wages of the poorest rose faster than for any other section of society made it clear that it wasn’t true the Tories only care about the rich. It says the Government’s plan to reduced the balance of inequality contrasts strongly with the ‘fevered minds of Jeremy Corbyn and his deluded followers’, who try and paint Britain as ‘an unfair society plagued by gross inequality’: a picture which it says isn’t true. But The

James Forsyth

The absent opposition

Oppositions don’t win elections — governments lose them. This has long been the Westminster wisdom. But the truth is that oppositions can lose elections, too: they must pass a basic competency test to be considered for office. Today, however, no party resembles a credible opposition to the Tories, let alone a government in waiting. What makes this absence so striking is that the government is in such a perilous position. It must somehow implement Brexit. Leaving the EU will crowd out Theresa May’s domestic priorities and reveal all the divisions in the Tory party over what kind of relationship with the EU the UK should seek. As one Tory with

Jonathan Fenby

Le Pen’s long game

Marine Le Pen can be excused for thinking her time has come. With six months to go until France’s presidential election, the left-wing government of François Hollande has produced only one winner, and it is her. She’s providing the Gallic contribution to the insurgent charge epitomised elsewhere by Brexit and Donald Trump. France, the home of joie de vivre, has become an introverted place whose citizens fear their nation has lost its way. It is an existential challenge, in the birthplace of existentialism, that the mainstream right is failing to answer. Le Pen, on the other hand, says she has all the answers — and, despite the questionable nature of

Matthew Parris

Why didn’t I celebrate Oscar Wilde’s birthday?

On Wednesday 19 October at the Grosvenor House Hotel on Park Lane in London, a reception was held to celebrate Oscar Wilde’s birthday. Invited by the excellent Gyles Brandreth, I arrived in good time. But as I approached the doors of the reception room, something stopped me. These are the facts. But what is the explanation? A few months ago Boris Johnson wrote two newspaper columns, one in favour of a proposition, one against. As an exercise in clearing one’s mind, the approach has much to commend it. So, to clear my own mind, let me try the same plan. There follow two alternative submissions of the diary item that

Wednesday

26 Oct 2016

Ross Clark

The Project Fear backtracking isn’t over yet

Another day, another backtracking in the doom-laden predictions of what would happen as a result of a vote for Brexit. Back in May, World Trade Organisation (WTO) chief Roberto Azevedo told the Financial Times that Britain would not simply be allowed to ‘cut and paste’ its terms of membership with the WTO. We would, he suggested, effectively have to negotiate from scratch – a process which could take years, as it did when Liberia joined. Today he has recanted, somewhat. ‘The UK is a member of the WTO today, it will continue to be a member tomorrow,’ he told Sky News. ‘There will be no discontinuity in membership. They have

Lloyd Evans

PMQs Sketch: Why Jeremy Corbyn is a lousy politician

Today it became clear why Corbyn is a lousy politician. He’s too interesting. The variety of life is simply too fascinating for him to prosper on the public stage. In a word, he’s not dull enough to be a statesman. A key attribute of leadership is the readiness to bore oneself, and everyone else, by repeating the same phrase over and over again. Successful politicians are happy to recite their favourite soundbites day in day out knowing that only at the thousandth repetition will the vital syllables grind their way into the public consciousness. Mr Corbyn has a great soundbite — shambolic Tory Brexit — which he needs to reiterate

Alec Marsh

The loss of his knighthood is the least of Philip Green’s problems

The prospect of becoming plain old Mr Green again may be troubling ‘Are-you-staring-at-me’ Sir Philip Green less than we might imagine. Because compared to the other problems facing him, his knighthood is arguably pretty small beer. Take the value of sterling: since the Brexit vote, the collapse in its fortunes has sent the currency tumbling in value by as much as 20 per cent. Then if you consider that almost everything sold in Sir Philip’s shops – be it Topshop, Topman, Dorothy Perkins or Miss Selfridge – is imported from overseas (from places like Bangladesh, China or India), it doesn’t take long to realise that somewhere along the way a sizeable chunk has been gobbled out of his margin. And that’s got

James Forsyth

Jeremy Corbyn lets Theresa May off the hook again at PMQs

Today’s PMQs could have been a tricky affair for Theresa May. Her decision on Heathrow has seen one Tory MP resign his seat and the Guardian’s story about a private speech she gave to Goldman Sachs during the EU referendum campaign clashes with her conference speech rhetoric about being the scourge of unaccountable global elites. But May got through the session fine, Heathrow wasn’t raised until well after 12.30 and no one mentioned her behind closed doors, Goldman’s address. Corbyn’s delivery at PMQs has improved. But he still can’t go through the gears. He started off using the frustration of the devolved First Minister following their meeting with May on

Steerpike

Dave’s bargain basement book deal isn’t quite the big earner he was hoping for

Poor old David Cameron. His defeat in the referendum campaign left critics saying he was the worst Prime Minister ever. Now, it seems, it’s not only his legacy which falls short of some of his predecessors. Having quit Parliament, Dave was planning to use the next year to cash in on his memoirs. When his book was first touted, there was talk of the former PM earning a multi-million pound payment. Some said his advance could even match – or beat – that of Tony Blair, who picked up £4.6m for his book ‘A Journey’. Instead, the actual amount Cameron will earn is something of a disappointment. It’s being reported

Tuesday

25 Oct 2016

James Forsyth

The LibDems will make the Richmond Park by-election into a referendum on Brexit

Zac Goldsmith has announced this evening that he’ll be standing as an independent in the Richmond Park by-election he has triggered over Heathrow expansion. The Tories don’t seem too alarmed and will not be fielding a candidate against him. This means that the by-election will turn into a fight between Goldsmith and the Liberal Democrats (who held the seat until 2010). Goldsmith says he is asking his constituents to give him a mandate to continue his fight against Heathrow and that he wants the by-election to be a referendum on a third runway. But the Liberal Democrats will try and turn it into a vote on Brexit. Lib Dems can point

Fraser Nelson

If Zac Goldsmith is standing again, what is the point of his resignation?

Quite a few MPs are driven by a strange need for validation, but Zac Goldsmith might be the first politician in history to ask his constituents to vote for him three times in two years. Once as Mayor (the less said about that tawdry campaign the better) and, it seems, twice as MP for Richmond Park. He always said he’d resign and trigger a by-election if the Government approved Heathrow, as it did this morning. Originally his threat had force because Richmond was a Tory-Lib Dem marginal and his resignation would mean that the Tories would probably lose a seat. It was Richmond’s way of saying to the Tories: ‘Yes,

James Forsyth

Can the Lib Dems profit from Zac Goldsmith’s resignation?

The political fallout is now coming from Theresa May’s decision to approve a third runway at Heathrow. Boris Johnson and Justine Greening have been granted the right to oppose the decision by Number 10. West London Tories are making clear that they are unhappy and Zac Goldsmith has already told his local constituency party that he’ll resign and trigger a by-election. For his part, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has made it clear he is looking at how he can be part of any legal challenge to Heathrow expansion. A Richmond Park by-election will be interesting, because although Goldsmith backed Brexit, the area voted heavily to Remain and was a Lib

Ross Clark

Let the gruesome legal battle over Heathrow commence

When the history comes to be written of Britain’s descent from a democracy to a krytocracy, the story of Heathrow’s third runway will mark an important point. Is there anyone who really believes that either today’s decision by the government to make Heathrow its preferred option, or the parliamentary vote in perhaps a year’s time, will really be the last word on the matter? It is already 67 years since extra runways to the north of the Bath Road were first proposed for London Airport. It might well be another 67 years before the legal challenges have concluded. Never have quite so many interests been lined up to challenge in the

Steerpike

Labour fined £20,000 for the EdStone

Just when you thought it was confined to political folklore, the EdStone returns again to haunt Labour. Mr S was interested to learn this morning that the Electoral Commission has fined the party £20,000 for failing to declare the money spent on the doomed eight-foot tombstone. Labour failed to declare £7,614 worth of receipts for the stone plinth, which form part of 74 payments worth £123,748 that appear to have been missed out of the declaration of expenses from the 2015 electoral campaign. The commission’s fine is the largest of its kind since it was set up in 2001. Were the receipts lost in the post? Or were they ripped up at the same point

Tom Goodenough

Heathrow or Gatwick: What are Theresa May’s options?

Today, after years of delay, we’ll finally learn what the Government’s answer is to the airport question. Both supporters and opponents of it expect the Transport Secretary Chris Grayling to announce that the Government is backing a third runway at Heathrow. However, it is also likely that the Government will make encouraging noises about further expansion at Britain’s regional airports. A Heathrow third runway isn’t the only option on the table though. Here’s the Spectator’s guide to Theresa May’s choices: Heathrow: A third runway? The Airport Commission threw its weight behind the option of building a new runway at Heathrow last year. After publishing its review into the airport question,

Tom Goodenough

Heathrow’s third runway gets the go-ahead from the Government

As was widely expected, the Government has backed plans to expand Heathrow. Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said the decision to approve a third runway is ‘truly momentous’. In a statement released moments ago, he said: ‘I am proud that after years of discussion and delay this government is taking decisive action to secure the UK’s place in the global aviation market – securing jobs and business opportunities for the next decade and beyond.’ This morning’s news isn’t much of a surprise, with the Prime Minister signalling last week that she favoured choosing Heathrow over Gatwick, in a decision that matches the Airport Commission’s recommendation. So what happens now? Despite Grayling suggesting today marks an end

Tom Goodenough

Ukip’s leadership race: All the runners and riders

Following Steven Woolfe’s decision to quit Ukip, the party’s prospects don’t look good. Woolfe – who was the frontrunner in Ukip’s leadership contest – said the party was in a ‘death spiral’. And on the basis of a tumultuous summer involving Diane James’s short-lived 18-day reign, a search for meaning after Brexit and that famous ‘altercation’ between Ukip MEPs, it’s hard to disagree. But amidst this turmoil, the hunt for a new leader to replace Nigel Farage is on. So who’s who in the party’s leadership contest? Suzanne Evans: Ukip’s former deputy chairwoman was barred from standing in the summer’s leadership contest as a result of her suspension from the party.

Monday

24 Oct 2016

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s Brexit plan slowly trickles out

A pattern is emerging in the Government’s statements on Brexit to the House of Commons. The initial statement, today by Theresa May on the European Council, says little. But then, in answer to questions, some information slips out. Today’s most interesting nugget was May’s response that staying in the customs union is not a yes or no question. This will add to the sense in Westminster that the Government is looking to stay in the customs union in certain sectors, for instance-car manufacturing, while leaving it in most areas. It is also worth noting when Gisela Stuart, the Labour co-chair of Vote Leave, asked about a 2020 deadline for being