Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

16 Mar 2016

The SNP’s ongoing war on football supporters would shame a better government

Here we go, here we go, here we [expletive of your choice] go again. Our old friend, the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act is back in the news again courtesy of an article written by its sponsor, Kenny MacAskill MSP. Booting MacAskill from office was one of Nicola Sturgeon’s first actions when she succeeded Alex Salmond as First Minister. It remains one of her best. MacAskill, you may recall, has form. It was he who cheerfully admitted that the government in which he served as Justice secretary was happy to ‘do the wrong thing’ – albeit for ‘the right reasons’ – since doing the right thing might have distracted attention from the

Fraser Nelson

Budget 2016, in eight graphs

Chart 1: Growth downgraded. Not by much, but Osborne sails so close to the wind that every negative revision tends to knock him off course. Chart 2: So Osborne’s new debt target is missed already. He said the debt/GDP ratio would fall every year: a target he took right to the limit in his Autumn Statement. The ratio is rising this year – again, not by much, but this is rather embarrassing for him as made such a fuss about this target. Chart 3: Deficit picture worsens. Again. Which happens pretty much every time Osborne stands up to make a financial statement. Here’s his latest plan, versus his original. Chart 4: 2019 – mother

Fraser Nelson

The OBR is relaxed about Brexit – contrary to what Osborne suggested

In his Budget speech today, George Osborne made out as if the Office for Budget Responsibility was worried about Britain leaving the EU and quoted it saying “a vote to leave in the forthcoming referendum could usher in an extended period of uncertainty”. Listening, I was amazed: how could he enlist the independent OBR on either side of the UK referendum debate? But the document itself (Box 3.4, pdf) tells a very different story. Rather than take sides the OBR explicitly says “it is not for us to judge” – and quotes a study by Open Europe, a think tank, which… … modelled a scenario in which the UK leaves the

Lloyd Evans

Budget Sketch: George Osborne finally dropped the conservative pretence

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss the Budget”] Listen [/audioplayer]If George Osborne was ever a conservative he dropped the pretence today. The chancellor sounded risibly pompous as he declared his plan to impose a slimming regime on Britain’s heaving population of wobble-bottoms. A levy on fizzy pop will arrive in 2018. Even before he’d explained the rationale behind his Weightwatcher’s initiative he’d sabotaged it by exempting ‘milk-based drinks’. But a tax on pop already carries innumerable loop-holes in the form of doughnuts, choccie bicccies, Jammy Dodgers and cream puffs. The intellectual basis of this self-congratulatory exercise is the assumption that Britain’s much-maligned chubsters are a) too

James Forsyth

Budget 2016: George Osborne played a difficult hand well

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss today’s Budget”] Listen [/audioplayer]George Osborne played a difficult hand well in this Budget. Hemmed in by the worsening fiscal forecasts and the political limitations that the EU Referendum imposes on the government, he delivered a Budget that included some clever politics even if it won’t live long in the memory. The biggest story of the day is the OBR’s view that the productive potential of the UK economy is significantly lower than it previously thought. If that judgement is correct, it will have serious, long term implications for the country and the public finances. But Osborne’s sugar levy on fizzy

Isabel Hardman

George Osborne’s cautious, strikingly moral Budget

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss today’s Budget”] Listen [/audioplayer]There were two striking things about George Osborne’s Budget today. The first was that having made sure that the weekend papers carried reports of all the pain that he was going to have to inflict on the nation to help it weather the economic storm that is coming, the Chancellor then barely mentioned what that pain would entail. He built up the start of his speech by lecturing the Commons on the necessity of the pain, warning that ‘we have a choice: we can choose to add to the risk and uncertainty, or we can be a

Fraser Nelson

Collapse in North Sea revenues destroys the SNP’s economic argument

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss today’s Budget”] Listen [/audioplayer]Alex Salmond had planned 24 March 2016 as his independence day and the budget he published during the Scottish independence referendum envisaged it having up to £7.5 billion of oil to spend. Today’s Budget shows that the figure will, instead be zero: precisely 100 per cent less than what the SNP had told Scots. Without it, the Scottish budget simply would not stand up. The basic point – ‘it’s Scotland’s oil!’ – has been the SNP refrain for years. There’s still oil in the North Sea but there’s no profit. The above graph shows how North Sea revenues – seen by the

Steerpike

Watch: George Osborne’s former chief of staff drops the Chancellor in it over sugar tax stunt

Of all the pledges in George Osborne’s budget announcement today, the most surprising appeared to be that of the sugar tax. As the tax was unexpected — given that it has been heavily disputed in the past — it will likely get top billing in the Budget coverage in tomorrow’s papers. So, could there be more than meets the eye to the announcement? Given that there was plenty of bad economic news in the Budget — with growth down and extra cuts announced — the sugar tax conveniently distracts from some of the more negative news. While Mr S can’t claim to be one of Osborne’s closest confidantes, happily one such man appeared on the BBC

Isabel Hardman

Budget 2016: The biggest problem with Jeremy Corbyn’s response was that it was delivered by Jeremy Corbyn

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss today’s budget”] Listen [/audioplayer]Jeremy Corbyn’s response to today’s Budget was fine on paper. It included a proper response to the policies that were announced, rather than the Labour leader merely ranting about what he had thought might be in the Budget when he wrote the draft a few hours earlier. He did include the sorts of lines that every Budget response from an Opposition leader and campaigning organisation must include, such as ‘it doesn’t go far enough’. But he did also welcome policies such as the sugar tax, and managed a couple of decent jokes. His opening line was that

The Spectator

George Osborne’s 2016 Budget: full audio and text

Mr Deputy Speaker, Today I report on an economy set to grow faster than any other major advanced economy in the world. I report on a labour market delivering the highest employment in our history. And I report on a deficit down by two thirds, falling each year and – I can confirm today – on course for a budget surplus. The British economy is stronger because we confronted our country’s problems and took the difficult decisions. The British economy is growing because we didn’t seek short term fixes but pursued a long term economic plan. The British economy is resilient because whatever the challenge, however strong the headwinds, we have held to the course

Helen Nugent

Budget 2016: what it means for your personal finances

So, what did the Chancellor have up his sleeve? And how does it affect you and your money? Here is Spectator Money’s guide to the major changes. Income tax George Osborne stayed true to a Conservative pre-election pledge to increase the threshold for the higher rate of income tax. While reiterating that the goal is to raise the higher rate towards £50,000 by the end of the parliament, he announced an increase in the 40p threshold to £45,000 from next April (£42,385 from this April). This will lift half a million people out of the higher rate and save them £400 a year. And he repeated the aim of boosting the tax-free

Steerpike

Watch: George Osborne promises to ‘abolish’ the Liberal Democrats

Of course no Budget announcement would be complete without some customary ‘banter’ from the Chancellor of the Exchequer. With George Osborne’s leadership chances seen to be dwindling, he did his best to show that he had got his ‘mojo’ back. Clearly free of any guilty feelings over how things turned out for the Liberal Democrats in the General Election, Osborne couldn’t resist a taking a pop at the beleaguered party as he discussed his plan for pensions: ‘For the past year, we’ve consulted widely on whether we should make compulsory changes to the pension system but it was clear there was no consensus. Indeed the former pensions minister, the Liberal Democrat Steve Webb said

Isabel Hardman

PMQs: A session soon to be lost in the Budget smog

Normally when a Leader of the Opposition prepares for the Prime Minister’s Questions before a Budget, it comes second to the prep for the difficult Budget response and focuses on a slightly random topic. The difference between this session and a normal PMQs is usually rather marked. But when Jeremy Corbyn rose today to ask his questions, his chosen topic of air pollution wasn’t all that more eccentric than his usual range of subjects. David Cameron’s team does have to prepare a wider range of topics – albeit in less detail – for PMQs now that Corbyn is Labour leader. But even they hadn’t thought of air pollution: Cameron had

The Spectator

Budget 2016 – the key announcements

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/spectatorpolitics/georgeosbornesbudget-2016/media.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss today’s Budget”] Listen [/audioplayer] Sugar tax on drinks with over 8pc sugar from 2018. A tax on the poor. Chunky growth downgrades. This year, GDP to grow at 2.0pc (down from 2.4pc) next years at 2.2pc (down from 2.5pc) and at 2.1pc (down from 2.4pc) in 2018/19. Debt target published just six months ago has been missed already because debt/GDP ratio is still rising. Corporation tax to be cut to 17pc by 2020, an improvement on previous 18 per cent target. About the only bit of good news. A mighty £1.4 billion cut from disability benefits Usually a political lightning rod. Under-40s to be allowed to open lifetime ISAs, with government contributing.

Freddy Gray

Goodbye, Marco Rubio. You were the wrong candidate at the wrong time

Marco Rubio last night finally suspended his campaign. At the risk of sounding smug, I could have told you years ago that he was not a good presidential candidate. In the wake of Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012, Rubio went on a charm tour of London, where I met him. He was sharp, no doubt about it, and agreeable in a way. His mind seemed to work very fast. But his speech and manner were weirdly automatic. It was as if a programmer had typed the following instructions into his head: ‘Visiting centre-right British magazine. Engage/deploy Thatcher-Reagan freedom rhetoric. Stress importance of Special Relationship. Attack Barack Obama.’ For twenty minutes or

Isabel Hardman

Budget 2016: Osborne the weatherman to warn of storm clouds over the economy

A year ago, George Osborne was giving voters a glimpse of the sunny uplands that they could expect from life under a Tory government. At the time, few believed that there would be a Tory majority after the election, but here we are at the 2016 Budget with the Chancellor still in weatherman mode, but now warning that the ‘storm clouds are gathering again’ over the economy. Osborne will say today that ‘in this Budget we choose the long term’ and that this government will ‘put the next generation first’. The Chancellor would have had to change his weather metaphors in post-election economic statements anyway, because every Budget right before

Helen Nugent

What will be in the 2016 Budget?

Fresh austerity measures, changes to income tax and the scrapping of a radical overhaul to the pensions system have dominated the headlines ahead of the 2016 Budget. But what money measures does the Chancellor have in store today? Here’s what to expect. Income tax One of the Conservatives’ pre-election pledges was an increase in the threshold for the higher rate of income tax towards £50,000 by the end of the parliament, and a rise in the tax-free personal allowance to £12,500. Despite stringent criticism over the funding for these measures (including cutting support for the disabled), George Osborne could raise both faster than anticipated. Fuel Duty Ah, this old chestnut. Unsurprisingly, motorists are vehemently opposed to

Tuesday

15 Mar 2016

Isabel Hardman

Burnham makes the case for Labour not supporting the Investigatory Powers Bill

The saying ‘the House of Commons at its best’ is normally a pompous description of parliamentarians agreeing with one another on something it is impossible to disagree on. However, when MPs come together to scrutinise legislation involving the security services, they do come rather close to being at their best, as they grow rather anxious about whether the legislation will actually work. So far the debate on the Investigatory Powers Bill has largely been detailed and thoughtful and without much silly knockabout. But the closest the second reading session has come to knockabout was when Andy Burnham was offering Labour’s response. The Shadow Home Secretary had the difficult job of

Steerpike

Labour’s former election star distances himself from Jeremy Corbyn

In 2010, Ross Kemp appeared in a party political broadcast urging the public to vote for Labour in the General Election. In this, the EastEnders actor, who plays Grant Mitchell in the BBC soap opera, warned the nation against voting for David Cameron: ‘It only takes around 60 seconds to cast your vote. 60 seconds to protect the economy, 60 seconds to protect your jobs, 60 seconds to protect the services your family relies on. And a lot is at stake during those 60 seconds, David Cameron and George Osborne would cut child credits and tax funds. They would put police numbers and schools at risk. With George Osborne at the

Douglas Murray

Cameron’s support for Turkey’s EU membership should worry us all

David Cameron this morning claimed that people who wish to leave the EU are ‘taking a risk with people’s jobs, taking a risk with families’ finances.’ Well then let us consider an even bigger risk that David Cameron is taking. In a visit to Turkey in 2010 our own Prime Minister announced that he would do everything he could to ensure Turkey entered the EU. Speaking as a guest of the country’s Islamist Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, our own PM said, ‘Turkey deserves its place at the top table of European politics – and that is what I will fight for.’ Since then he has indeed been fighting to