Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories’ tax pledge could see them recover in Scotland

Today’s announcement that the UK Tory party is backing the full devolution of income tax to Holyrood, and will commit to that in its 2015 manifesto, is hugely significant. It means that both coalition parties now support some tax competition between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. By contrast, Ed Miliband has made clear that he will never sign off on any devolution deal that allows Scotland to undercut the rest of the UK on tax. Instead, he wants a system where the Scots could only choose to have the same tax rates as the rest of the UK or higher ones. This difference raises the possibility that

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Newark campaigning strategy cheers up Tory activists

One of the spin-offs of Grant Shapps’ cheesy-sounding yet quite impressive ‘Team 2015’ strategy for campaigning in the local elections and now in Newark is that the energetic campaigning atmosphere seems to be making activists and MPs very happy. This sounds like a minor consideration when by-election campaigns are for winning seats, not counselling party members. But given the rather fractious few years that the Tory party has had, this is rather important. Activists and MPs need to feel  they’re sailing with the wind behind them as they approach the election, and so gathering large numbers of campaigners together at once, rather than leaving them to canvass and deliver in

Sebastian Payne

Tories on course to win Newark by-election, says Ashcroft poll

The Tories are looking ever more likely to hold Newark in Thursday’s by-election. In a new poll from Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, the Conservatives are now on 47 per cent of the vote, compared to 36 per cent in the last week’s Survation poll and 53 per cent at the 2010 general election: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/OevDw/index.html”] As you can see from the chart above, Ukip have dropped behind slightly their position last last week, but will certainly do better than their 2010 result. By-elections are notoriously hard to predict but this ultra-local poll doesn’t offer any indications that Roger Helmer has the momentum to take Newark. Labour’s vote continues to be

Harry Cole

Grant Shapps has built an activists’ team to fight for the Tories in Newark – and in 2015

The CCHQ strategy is to never to talk about strategy, but Tory chairman Grant Shapps cannot hide his excitement on this Saturday afternoon. Just a week after the Conservative Party came third in a national poll for the first time ever, 650 Tory activists are out campaigning in the Newark by-election. That is enough boots on the ground to deliver 40,000 leaflets and canvass the entire Nottinghamshire constituency ahead of Thursday’s vote. ‘I haven’t seen anything like this since Crewe,’ one seasoned activist tells me, referring to David Cameron’s narrative shaping by-election victory over Gordon Brown in 2008. Shapps is particularly pleased with a text from the Telegraph’s Dan Hodges, said to be

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Eurosceptic plotters mull Queen’s Speech revolt

David Cameron managed to extract promises from some of the more troublesome backbench MPs that they wouldn’t get up to any monkey business around this year’s Queen’s Speech. Last year’s motion of regret tabled by John Baron and Peter Bone caused all sorts of trouble, but it did lead to the Conservatives publishing their own EU referendum bill, which was taken up by James Wharton and provoked #LetBritainDecide fever. I have learned that the thinking in some Eurosceptic circles is that someone should table another similar amendment to the vote on this year’s Speech which similarly expresses regret for the absence of an EU referendum bill. But this time the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

European Commission president row is example of PM’s ‘essay crisis’ strategy, MPs grumble

David Cameron might be hoping that the eurosceptics in his party are chuffed with his tough guy stance on Jean-Claude Juncker. And by and large, they are. But they’re not wholly impressed. One eurosceptic remarks that this intervention is simply about the Newark by-election, given its timing. Another, who is minded to at least believe that the Prime Minister is thinking about European reform, rather than Patrick Mercer’s old seat, says: ‘This is no way to do diplomacy. Cameron has left this to the last minute yet again and it could be too late to do anything. He has had months to express a view yet is only engaging now.’

Steerpike Steerpike

Ken Clarke’s yellow badge of honour

Despite trying to fend off Ukip in the Newark by-election, the Tories have thought it a good idea to put neighbouring MP, and devout Europhile, Ken Clarke on their candidate’s literature. The Tories seem desperate to feature him in their campaign, even though it’s rumoured that Clarke may soon be shuffled out of the Cabinet. However, they seem to have overlooked the fact that Clarke is wearing a private enclosure badge from some society sporting event. To top it off, Nick Clegg’s favourite Tory is even wearing yellow. Just the image the Tories need when their candidate’s multi-million property empire is in the spotlight as polling day approaches.

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Are we witnessing the strange rebirth of Conservative Scotland?

Perhaps. Because when you cross the Rubicon you obliterate a line in the sand. Or something like that, anyway. Ruth Davidson was elected leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party on a platform promising no more concessions to the SNP. She was the candidate favoured by the party establishment, the candidate for continuity not change. By contrast, Murdo Fraser’s tilt for the leadership argued that the party should dissolve itself and start again. Four in ten Tory members voted for euthanasia. The publication today of the Strathclyde Commission’s report on further devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament is perhaps best understood as a synthesis of the Davidson and

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Campaign to junk Juncker continues

The campaign against Jean-Claude Juncker becoming President of the European Commission continues, with Martin Callanan (who might hope to benefit from another campaign against someone getting a job, namely Andrew Lansley becoming the UK’s European Commissioner), telling the Today programme that the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg is the ‘business-as-usual candidate’ who is not the ‘reformer who will institute bold and radical change’. Callanan argues that members of the European People’s Party are not bound to support Juncker, because ‘less than 10 per cent of the electorate in any of the countries that the EPP are now saying they have the votes from actually knew they were voting for anybody

Sunday

Heather Tomlinson

On the campaign trail with Ukip in Newark

A battle cry has gone out for more troops, and the UKIP faithful have responded. Newark, packed with Tory spinners and regularly visited by David Cameron and assorted Tory grandees, has now attracted hundreds of purple campaigners for this week’s by-election. From all corners of the UK – from Scotland to Cornwall, the Eastern counties to Wales, the most fervent UKIP believers gathered yesterday for a public meeting near Newark, and a chance to see their chief protagonist, Nigel Farage. ‘After the European elections, we can smell blood,’ said a cheerful UKIP activist, Scott Cross, from Hampshire. Former Tory activist Steve Stanbury, who defected to UKIP a few years ago,

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Osborne admits net migration target is impossible without EU reform

George Osborne’s interview today with the Sun on Sunday does show the Conservatives are starting to see a little bit of sense about their net migration target. They’re starting to realise that they aren’t going to meet it when they can only control non-EU migration. It’s surprising, really, that it’s taken them so long to realise that the target was going to be a bit tricky to meet. In this week’s magazine, Douglas Murray argues that Cameron will need to listen – really listen – to voters’ concerns about immigration if he is to have a hope of winning next year: ‘Because the deep, underlying story of last week is

Nicholas Farrell

A letter to Nigel Farage about Beppe Grillo

Nige, I write to warn you about a certain Italian with a big disturbing beard called Mister Beppe Grillo — your new friend who you met in Brussels on Wednesday. We are both, you and me, men of Kent. You Sevenoaks, me Westerham. We have much in common. You Dulwich College, me King’s Canterbury. We are both rebels because we both — despite being the wrong side of 50 – drink and smoke way too much — regardless. But, these days, I live in Italy. And you do not. So take it from me babe: leave well alone the Italian fried-air salesman Grillo who is an ‘ex’ communist and ‘ex’

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Cameron is doing what Eurosceptics want him to do

Tory Eurosceptics from the Cabinet down have long made clear that David Cameron will only be able to get a sufficiently different deal from the EU if he’s prepared to threaten that Britain will leave if it can’t get what it needs. Many have assumed that Cameron, who has been clear that he would prefer Britain to keep in the EU, would not be prepared to do this. But it seems that he is. The German magazine Spiegel reports that Cameron told his fellow EU leaders that if Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg federalist, became president of the Euroopean Commission he could not guarantee that Britain would stay in the EU.

Saturday

Ben Cobley

Labour’s mixed up views on race and diversity are driving voters away

In the past few weeks, Sadiq Khan has made a couple of interventions that show how hopelessly confused the Labour Party is on issues of race and diversity – and Ukip looms large in the background. First up, a couple of weeks ago, Khan made a Labour’s pitch ethnic minority votes in a speech to Operation Black Vote. He said: ‘The fact is that if you are black or Asian in Britain today: you are significantly more likely to be unemployed. You will earn less and you will live a shorter life than your white neighbours.’ Invoking Policy Exchange’s recent ‘Portrait of Modern Britain’ report, he added: ‘Entire racial groups are significantly

Simon Parker

Why Ukip might not want power, even if it can win it

It is ironic that Ukip – a party obsessed with a supranational institution – is mostly likely to gain its first taste of power in local government. Following last week’s elections they have an additional 161 councillors in England with concentrations of numbers in former strongholds of both Labour and the Conservatives. The party’s path to local leadership will be tough as the electoral cycle is not in its favour. Most of the councils where they have new strength will not vote again for three years and those that do have more regular elections tend to elect on thirds, making for slow progress. Nonetheless, it would take a brave psephologist

Friday

The Spectator

Video: Newark state of mind

Ukip candidate Roger Helmer reckons that Farage would do a better job in the by-election campaign and defends employing an Italian citizen as his assistant Tory Robert Jenrick denies being a ‘carpetbagger’ and says he wants the UK to remain in Europe Yesterday our contributing editor Harry Cole interviewed the next MP for Newark. If the polls are to be believed that will be the Tories’ safe if dull candidate Robert Jenrick. But Ukip’s Roger Helmer is confident of causing an upset. Robert Jenrick denied being a ‘carpetbagger’ or a ‘career politician’ ,claiming he had ‘has never worked in politics’, despite having stood in Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 2010 and attempting to get selected to a

Douglas Murray

Political meltdown

I have consistently maintained that the Liberal Democrat party is an anachronism, a perversion and general waste of political space. So imagine my joy in recent weeks at discovering that the remaining members of the Liberal Democrat party are starting to agree with me. First there was the Lib Dem MP Jeremy Browne saying in April that the party had become ‘pointless’. And now there is the Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott saying that under Nick Clegg the Lib Dems have become a ‘split-the-difference centre party, with no roots, no principles and no values.’ I am relieved to see this, and look forward to welcoming similar statements of support for

Sebastian Payne

The Newark by-election might not be a disaster for Labour

Will Labour do well in the Newark by-election? While all the focus has been on the fight between the Tories and Ukip (watch our exclusive interview with the candidates here), Labour has been mostly forgotten. Yet in this morning’s poll of the seat from The Sun, Labour are on 27 per cent — four points ahead of their result in 2010 and one point ahead of Ukip: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/4CGHl/index.html”] This is a rather good showing for a party with a pretty basic ground operation. During my visit to Newark-on-Trent yesterday, I did not spot a single Labour canvasser in the town centre. Their election HQ was smaller than any of

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Does Tony Blair want to be President of the European Commission?

Tony Blair appeared on the Today programme on Tuesday morning to talk about Europe. The televised version showed him against the backdrop of the Brandenburg Gate. He said somewhat predictable things about Ukip being bad and a reformed Europe being good. The mystery was ‘Why?’ Why was he intervening at this point? It took me several hours to puzzle out a possible answer. It lies, I suggest, in his statement that the European project used to be ‘about peace’ and now it is ‘about power’. He was speaking at the beginning of the week when the contest for the presidency of the European Commission comes to a head. Mr Blair emphasised that

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Chris Leslie: Labour cannot afford to reverse the Coalition’s cuts

Chris Leslie’s speech today is intended to show that Labour is very fiscally responsible. It’s a noble task, and one the party knows it needs to hammer away at as much as it does on the cost-of-living, otherwise voters may not see that Labour is the trustworthy solution to the problem the party is highlighting. That said, the meat of this speech is very technical, and given it was delivered to the Institute of Chartered Accountants, perhaps not quite aimed at swing voters. Leslie is shouldering a big burden here, because the main thrust of his speech is that his party could not get elected in 2015 and promise unicorns