Politics

With the Tories trailing just behind Labour in the opinion polls, predictions are rife that the 2015 general election will be a bloody tough campaign. With a drop in the Lib Dem vote, the rise of Ukip and a potential swing towards Labour, it’s difficult to predict who will win. But like all general elections, a handful of marginal seats will decide who walks into No.10. Here are UK’s most marginal seats which will play a vital role next year. 1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone Held by: Michelle Gildernew — Sinn Fein Majority: 4 [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/b2hPv/index.html”] Easily the UK’s most marginal seat, Michelle Gildernew has held Fermanagh & South Tyrone

The High-Speed Rail Bill pops up in the Commons on Monday – with two attempts to kill it off planned. Michael Fabricant and Cheryl Gillan – whose constituencies would both be affected by the proposed route – have both drawn up motions which call for the House of Commons to decline to give the Bill a second reading. Fabricant was sacked from his position as Vice Chair of the Conservative party for pushing ahead with his motion (and a number of other things, too) and has the support of Sir Edward Leigh, Jeremy Lefroy, David Davis, David Nuttall, William Cash, Caroline Spelman, Bob Blackman, Chris Kelly and Andrew Turner. Gillan,

More trouble for Ukip this morning: it seems that yet another party official has some colourful views about ‘people of color’. David Challice, who is understood to work at Ukip HQ, once suggested that ‘cash-strapped Moslems’ should have multiple wives. In a bizarre newspaper advert placed in the Exeter Express and Echo in 2009, Challice said that he had found a ‘money spinner’ for ‘any cash-strapped Moslems’. He recommended that they should have ‘multiple wives in order to claim an extra £33.65 per wife in benefits from the Department for Work and Pensions’. An outcry followed, with Challice accused of racism. Challice later denied that the advert was racist; arguing that ‘…the mention of Islam and

Mr and Mrs Clegg attended the launch yesterday evening of Cityfathers, a group designed for fathers working in the Square Mile. With the kind of spontaneity that smacks of an organised PR stunt, they set about finishing each other’s sentences. The double act hit its stride when the deputy prime minister was taking questions from the floor and Miriam raised her hand. Nick said: “Gosh, Miriam has put up her hand. I’m terrified about what is about to come…’Of course, I agree with you’.” (Ha, ha! They should turn professional.) Miriam asked Nick why stigma surrounds men who want to do their share of childcare: ‘There are many, many dinosaurs,

The extent of public pessimism in Britain is striking. 54 percent of people think that young people’s lives will be worse than that of their parents’ generation. This pessimism, I argue in the column this week, explains why Ukip is doing so well. If you think that life is getting worse regardless of what you do, then you want to cast a vote of no confidence in the entire political class—and the easiest way to do that is to vote Ukip. As one Tory minister says, ‘Ukip has captured a zeitgeist of grumpiness.’ I think there are three things fuelling this mood of pessimism. There is the financial crash and

‘Twenty-six million people in Europe are looking for work. And whose jobs are they after?’ asks the Ukip poster for the euro-elections, beside a Lord Kitchener-style pointing finger. Obviously, Ukip thinks the answer is ‘Ours’. But this isn’t true. Twenty-six million people are not looking for British jobs, but for jobs in general. And even those who do want jobs in Britain are not trying to take jobs from people who have them (though this might sometimes be the effect): they just want jobs. If Ukip is opposed to unrestricted EU immigration, it should direct its anger at the politicians who support this policy, not at the blameless people who,