Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Department of Something Must Be Done & the Drink Police

Even if you accept that the government’s plans for a minimum alcohol price in England and Wales are well-intentioned you can be pretty sure that it’s a bad idea. How so? Well, the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats each agree that something must be done and this kind of cross-party agreement tends to be a healthy indicator there’s bipartisan foolishness afoot. Alcohol consumption is a complicated phenomenon and the price of drink is only one factor in a story that saw booze consumption fall for decades, rise again towards Victorian levels and then, in the past decade, actually begin to fall again. So is this legislation even necessary? The

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s minimum pricing plan is politically risky

David Cameron’s plan for a minimum price for alcohol is one that several of his Cabinet colleagues, including the Health Secretary, have grave reservations about. But the Prime Minister’s personal enthusiasm for the policy has overridden these reservations. To my mind, a minimum price for alcohol is not a good idea. I expect that the effect of it will be to shift those who are intent on getting drunk, off beer and wine and onto spirits, whose prices will probably remain unchanged. Tory MPs also tend not to like the idea, viewing it as an unnecessary interference with the market. Indeed, I suspect there’ll be a fair few Tory backbenchers

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

The IFS gives its Budget verdict

The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ briefing is always a good place to pick up a few interesting nuggets of detail about the Budget — and this year’s is no exception. Here are five of the most striking points from their presentation this morning: 1. Beyond the next election. In November, Osborne caused a stir by announcing that — in order to meet his fiscal target — further spending cuts would be needed after 2015. Annex A of the Budget gives some more detail on this, and the IFS has crunched the numbers even further. They calculate that the fiscal consolidation from 2009-10 to 2016-17 will total £123 billion and that

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Soak the Old

So George Osborne has received a kicking in today’s press. That’s what happens when you try to disguise a tax-raising budget as a tax-cutting affair. This is also a fine lesson in press management. For when you leak everything else in the budget do not be surprised if the press – bastards hungry for novelty and all that – leap upon the sneaky little tax rise that you did not leak in advance. It’s that odd thing called “news”, you see. And, again, perhaps Osborne has been just a little bit too clever by half. His so-called “Granny Tax” was a classic ploy of the kind oft-favoured by Gordon Brown,

The Spectator

Transcript: Osborne defends his Budget

Here’s the full transcript of this morning’s Today programme interview with George Osborne: Evan Davis: If you believe in using the tax system to cut the incomes of those at the top and in using the welfare system to hand money to the poor, then yesterday’s budget was probably not for you. The Chancellor  hinted at big further cuts to welfare and he clearly thinks the tax system has gone too far in trying to harvest cash from those at the top. Yes, he’s ironing out some loopholes but for him 50p rates don’t work. Believe him, and the game’s over for those who want government to iron out the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Why Osborne saved Wallace and Gromit

‘It is the determined policy of this government to keep Wallace and Gromit exactly where they are.’ So proclaimed George Osborne in his Budget speech yesterday, as he announced new tax credits for the video games, animation and televesion industries. But what prompted this? Had he been reading The Spectator? In an interview for the magazine a couple of months ago, Miles Bullough — head of broadcast at Aardman Animations, the studio that produces Wallace and Gromit — told Lloyd Evans of the competition that the British animation industry faces from other countries where the governments do offer subsidies, and the need for something similar here. Here’s the full interview:

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne hopes business will see past the bad headlines

Today’s front pages concentrate on the so-called ‘granny tax’, the surprise of the Budget. But the real test of this Budget is going to be whether it delivers growth. If it does, then it will make a Tory majority in 2015 more likely. If it doesn’t, then the decision to cut the 50p rate will become even more politically problematic.   Given that the Budget is fiscally neutral, this growth is going to have come from either the couple of supply side measures in the Budget or by finding a way to unleash those elusive animal spirits. Indeed, I think this desire to boost confidence is one of the main

The Spectator

The Spectator’s Budget briefing

What was really in George Osborne’s Budget? Last night we held an event, in association with Aberdeen Asset Management, to discuss just that. Click here for a free pdf copy of the briefing paper produced for the event.

Wednesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Balls goes on the attack against 45p

Ed Balls committed Labour to voting against the reduction in the 50p rate at his post-Budget briefing. But he wouldn’t say whether or not Labour would pledge to restore it in their manifesto; sticking to the classic opposition line that all decisions on tax will be made in the manifesto and not before. Balls, though, was on typically pugilistic form; few politicians relish a scrap as much as he does. The Labour leadership clearly view the abolition of the 50p rate as a major political opening for them. Balls went out of his way to attack the HMRC report that Osborne used to justify the move. He mockingly declared that

James Forsyth James Forsyth

All that matters now is growth

With every Budget, the early Cameron emphasis on greenery and General Well Being not Gross Domestic Product seems a more distant memory. Today’s Budget showed that, to Osborne at least, growth now trumps these more abstract concerns.   So, we saw an announcement that the planning rules would come into force pretty much as planned from next Tuesday. This means that Osborne has simply overridden all the bureaucratic and legal objections from DCLG. Although, I understand that councils who already have a sufficiently pro-development local plan will have a year to adjust to the new rules.   Sunday trading rules, a classic bit of General Well Being paternalism, are also

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

A quiet PMQs, ahead of today’s main event

It started like a bit of good old political knockabout. PMQs opened with a planted question from Mark Menzies (Con, Fylde) asking the PM about Britain’s sick-note culture. Cameron, looking suitably grave, declared that the fake-sniffle problem afflicts even senior management. Ed Miliband, he told us, had recently claimed he was too ill to attend a rally called by health workers. Three hours later he was seen heartily cheering at a football match having been driven to the ground in a Rolls Royce. ‘What was it,’ asked Cameron, ‘that first attracted the Labour leader to the multimillionaire owner of Hull football club?’ This prompted howls and jeers from every part

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Lib Dems are happy with what they got

This Budget told us something interesting about the coalition: that there’s more juice left in it than some of us thought. Judging by recent coalition tensions, one might have expected the two parties to devote their time to blocking each other’s proposals. But, instead, they’ve struck a deal that suits both of their political priorities: the Liberal Democrats have got a sizeable increase in the personal allowance, the Tories a 2p cut in corporation tax and a reduction in the economically destructive 50p rate. Interestingly, close allies of the Deputy Prime Minister are now briefing that ‘differentiation’, pointing out where the Lib Dems disagree with the Tories, will be dialled

Peter Hoskin

Behind Osborne’s 50p tax change

How significant was this Budget? On an economic level, not very. There’s no discernible impact on growth: all of the main forecasts have more or less stayed the same since the Autumn Statement. Borrowing is the tiniest bit lower, mainly thanks to a £23 billion accountancy trick with Royal Mail pensions. And even many of the policies announced today will barely rouse the Exchequer’s attention. That cut in the top rate of income tax to 45p? It will mean only £100 million a year less in direct revenues. That stamp duty increase for properties worth over £2 million? It will net only £300 million a year. The overall effect is

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Cost of Living Like This

Brother Jones and Fraser and Pete have already given you some of the useful charts from today’s budget. But the truth of this budget can be summarised quite simply: Everyone Pays More. Here’s the proof, culled from the Red Book: Conservative Home say this shoots Ed Miliband’s fox, proving that the rich will pay more as a consequence of this budget. Up to a point. In pure cash terms, the total impact of the budget may be greater on the wealthiest 10%; in proportional terms it seems to hit those on lower incomes rather harder. Again, however, note this: George Osborne appears to have delivered a tax-raising budget. If Britain

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Twelve points about the Budget

There’s much to applaud in this budget, but as ever we in Coffee House are focusing on things jumping out from the small print. Here are a few things I’ve noticed so far. 1. Don’t mention QE. In his Pre-Budget Report, Osborne was candid about his economic policy: ‘fiscal conservatism, but monetary activism’. That is to say, fiddling about on the margins with taxes, while the Bank of England — 100 per cent owned by the Treasury — is midway through the largest QE experiment ever attempted in the developed world. It is impossible to understand Osborne’s economic policy, his Budget and those it affects without also considering the effects

James Forsyth James Forsyth

A Budget by and for the coalition

The coalition has found the second year of co-habitation more difficult than the first and it will find the coming year even more difficult given that House of Lords reform is on the agenda. But today’s Budget is a reminder of the political benefits of coalition. When George Osborne stands up today and announces, for instance, the reduction in the 50p rate he will do so with the support of two parties. Equally, a minority Tory government wouldn’t have been able to get more spending cuts to help finance a tax cut through parliament. It also seems that there should be measures in the Budget to please both Tory and

Peter Hoskin

A fistful of questions on Budget morning

Thanks to Budget purdah, we’re all in the dark about what will be in George Osborne’s Red Book today. Oh, sorry, that’s wrong, don’t know what I was thinking. Truth is that, unless the Chancellor has some monumental surprises lined up, we’ve actually heard about much of the Budget in advance. We know, for instance, not just that he’ll cut the top rate of tax from 50p to 45p, but also — courtesy of Andrew Grice in the Independent today — the internal political slog by which he reached that decision. Thanks to the proclivities of coalition government, this has to be one of the most pre-briefed Budgets ever. There

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

More advance snippets from the Budget

The big Budget news tonight is that the personal allowance will rise to £9,205. This is a larger increase than expected and, intriguingly, will be paid for — in part — by a couple of billion more of spending cuts. So, the Lib Dems see considerable progress on their main budget priority, raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, but this will be partially funded by something Tory MPs have been calling for, more spending cuts. It also appears that the coalition will further increase the pace of its corporation tax cuts as well as introducing a new higher rate of stamp duty for £2 million plus houses. There’ll also

James Plunkett

Four tests for Osborne’s Budget


With the Coalition taking pre-Budget briefing to new levels you’d be excused for thinking there’s little we don’t know about tomorrow’s statement. But here are four questions we can’t yet answer, and that will be crucial to assessing whether this is a Budget for low-to-middle earners as the Chancellor claims:
 1) Will the new increase in the personal allowance be restricted to basic rate taxpayers? When the Coalition raised the allowance by £1,000 back in April 2011 they cancelled out the benefits to those at the top by lowering the 40p tax threshold. The second time around — the £630 increase that kicks in this April — they didn’t. From