Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Alex Massie

Morning of the Blunt Knives – Spectator Blogs

Provided you remember a few simple rules the Expectations Game should be the easiest test to pass in politics. It is not complicated: under-promise and over-deliver. Or, more succinctly, never hype anything. So only fools trail a cabinet reshuffle with the suggestion it will be some kind of transformational shot-in-the-arm for the government. First, doing so concedes that your government is not doing very well at present (otherwise there’d be no need for the reshuffle); second it all-but-demands the press responds to the reshuffle with extra vinegar and cynicism. Is this it? Blimey. Better by far to promise little and actually clear the bar you’ve set at a modest level

James Forsyth

Exclusive: why IDS was offered Justice, and how he turned it down

Yesterday afternoon, David Cameron met with Iain Duncan Smith. According to a Downing Street source, IDS was offered the job of Justice Secretary. But the Prime Minister did make clear that the former Tory leader could stay at DWP if he wished. I understand that there were three reasons for the proposed shift. The first was articulated by Danny Finkelstein on Newsnight last night, IDS is a visionary and welfare reform — and the universal credit in particular — is now moving into the implementation phase. It was thought that Chris Grayling, a former management consultant, would be better suited to that task. The second reason was identified by James

David Cameron’s reshuffle as it happened

This was a live blog from 4 September 2012. The latest entries at the top and you can scroll down to read the event as it happened. 20:00: That’s all folks – it’s time to close up the blog. Downing Street have released their final list of ministerial appointments today. We hope you have enjoyed our live coverage of David Cameron’s first cabinet reshuffle and do come back to Coffee House for the latest developments from Westminster. Good night! 1938: Looks like Cheryl Gillan’s ex-PPS Glyn Davies is pleased to free from his shackles: Like frisky young heifer in spring when first turned out to grass – free to gambol. Now my

Isabel Hardman

Two groups to keep an eye on in the reshuffle

The reshuffle is now under way. We already know that Andrew Mitchell is taking over as the chief whip, Baroness Warsi has just announced her departure via Twitter and the word now is that Ken Clarke is likely to move from Justice Secretary to Leader of the House. There will be live updates on Coffee House throughout the day as MPs start filing in and out of Downing Street, but before the shuffling begins properly, here are some names worth keeping an eye out for. These are the coalition casualties: MPs who served on the Conservative front bench when the party was in opposition but were not offered ministerial posts

Isabel Hardman

George Osborne booed at Paralympics

George Osborne was booed by a hefty contingent of the 80,000-strong crowd in the Olympic stadium this evening. He was handing out medals for the Paralympic T38 400m, and as his name was read out over the tannoy, the crowd let out a loud volley of boos. I was fortunate enough to be sitting in the stadium this evening watching the athletics, and the boo that echoed around the stands did not come from one part in particular. It was a deep, pantomime-villain boo. ‘Why does nobody like that man?’ the girl behind me asked her mother. ‘He’s – well, it’s complicated – but he’s the head of the economy,

James Forsyth

Appointment of new chief whip Andrew Mitchell sends clear signal to Tory rebels

Andrew Mitchell’s appointment as chief whip sends out several messages to Conservative MPs. First, the decision to move a high-performing secretary of state to the whips office and the news that several of the best and the brightest of the new intake will be joining him there is meant to show MPs that Cameron is showing the whips office, the conduit for their concerns, respect. But with this comes a toughening up of discipline. The Prime Minister is bringing in a former army officer and veteran of the Maastricht whips office. One imagines that Conservative MPs will be rather more nervous about an interview without coffee with the chief whip

James Forsyth

New term, same old tensions

Nick Clegg came to the Commons today to both praise and bury House of Lords reform, for this parliament at least. In a light-hearted start, Clegg informed the House that he was here to update it on ‘House of Lords reform or what’s left of it’. But this light-hearted mood didn’t last long. Soon Clegg and Harman were trading blows, with the Deputy Prime Minister accusing Labour of having behaved like miserable, little party point scoring politicians’ in refusing to back the idea of a timetable motion. Things turned really sour when Clegg’s Tory backbench tormentors got to their feet. Malcolm Rifkind, whose speech against had helped sink the bill,

Isabel Hardman

Harman tries to play ball with Clegg on boundaries

Nick Clegg didn’t mention the boundary reforms once in the statement he gave to the House of Commons on the death of the House of Lords Reform Bill. The Deputy Prime Minister knew he wouldn’t need to wait long for an opportunity to talk about it, though, and he was right: Harriet Harman raised the changes to constituencies as soon as she stood up to respond. Seizing on the Liberal Democrats’ decision to oppose the changes as revenge for the failure of their attempts to reform the upper chamber, Harman told Clegg that Labour thought the work of the Boundary Commission should stop immediately, given the cost of it continuing

James Forsyth

David Davis breaks ranks

David Davis’ speech today is the most significant criticism of the coalition’s economic policy from Tory ranks. Davis might not be the force he was back in the early 2000s but he’s still a big figure who demands attention. To be sure, there’s much in the speech that the Chancellor would agree with—the criticism of green taxes, for instance—and it is worth noting that Davis avoided calling for Osborne to go. But the speech with its call for ‘economic shock therapy’ and lament that the cuts have been done at too slow a pace was full of criticisms both implicit and explicit of Number 11. ( I wonder, though, whether

Isabel Hardman

Promoting David Laws to the education department would be a waste

Appointing David Laws as deputy to Michael Gove seems like a sensible way of bringing the Liberal Democrat back into government at first glance. But this move, which is one of the changes David Cameron is rumoured to be considering as part of the reshuffle, is actually rather a waste of a talented member of Nick Clegg’s party. Here’s the case for putting Laws in the education department: He is not from the wing of the party that gets the most upset about Gove’s reforms in education. In fact, his views on free schools and the profit motive suggest he could work well with the education secretary. On profit-making, he

Isabel Hardman

A return to the two-tier exam system?

Michael Gove faces MPs at education questions this afternoon, and as you might expect, GCSEs appear a couple of times on the order paper. Labour’s Emma Reynolds will ask the Education Secretary ‘what plans he has for the future of GCSEs, and if he will make a statement’. As I blogged on Friday, Gove does have plans to make a statement about the future of the secondary school exams, and the Liberal Democrats believe they’ve managed to squash any hopes he had of returning to the two-tier system of O levels and CSEs. But Gove didn’t quite stick to this when he did his tour of the television and radio

James Forsyth

Osborne reveals his new strategy for growth

The contours of the coalition’s autumn growth offensive are beginning to emerge. The impasse that existed before the summer appears to have at least eased. On Marr this morning, George Osborne announced that the Treasury is now working on plans for a small business bank which will please Vince Cable who has been pushing for this for a long time. At the same time, Osborne also backed more airport and runway capacity in the South East and announced that the government will announce further measures to simplify the planning system. His message: ‘we have to do more and do it faster’. In line with this approach I understand that Vince Cable

Fraser Nelson

David Cameron’s housebuilding illusion

When ministers come up with a bright idea to promote home ownership, it’s usually time to worry. David Cameron has written for the Mail on Sunday today and it says that, on Thursday, he will detail yet more policies to help the housebuilding industry. CoffeeHousers will be familiar with the argument: England needs 230,000 extra homes a year to meet demand but only 124,000 homes were completed last year.  This is holding back the recovery. The market has failed, so government must step in. In his article, the Prime Minister presents Nimbys as the main problem and takes aim at them. ‘A key part of recovery is building the houses

Isabel Hardman

Treasury: We did not leak the Budget

It’s easy to forget that the Budget took place five long months ago when it is still being unpicked and argued over now. The Treasury Select Committee published the  responses from the government and the Office for Budget Responsibility to its report on that Budget today, and it includes a curious denial from the Treasury. Andrew Tyrie and his colleagues on the committee had criticised the amount of pre-briefing and leaking of the budget that took place in the weeks before George Osborne stood up in the Commons, arguing that ‘coalition government is not a justification for budget leaks’. This is what the Treasury said in response: No Treasury officials,

Isabel Hardman

GCSE reform details due in coming weeks

Exams regulator Ofqual is due to publish its findings on the gradings in the GCSE English paper today. The afternoon is yawning along, though, and there’s still no sign of the report, so while you’re all waiting with bated breath, here’s an update on the wider picture on GCSE reform. Michael Gove rather shocked the rest of the coalition government earlier this summer when his plan to abolish GCSEs and replace them with a two-tier O level-style exam system appeared on the front page of the Daily Mail. Since then, he and his advisers have been deep in negotiation with the Liberal Democrats on what an acceptable reform might look

How the forecasters could fail for the 2012 presidential election

The really curious thing about this year’s US presidential election is that it looks set to defy all political forecasts. While the most respected political science models have predicted victory for Mitt Romney, polls have consistently suggested otherwise. Political science and predictive models seldom receive much attention in the UK but they enjoy a strong tradition in the US. And they normally get it right. Most spectacularly, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model in 2000 successfully predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. Since its inception in 1980, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model has successfully predicted the results of the last eight

Isabel Hardman

Lib Dem MPs are still remarkably loyal to Clegg

Nick Clegg may or may not be thrilled that Paddy Ashdown has urged party members to stand by their leader after Lord Oakeshott’s rather vicious attack on him yesterday. It depends slightly on the Deputy Prime Minister’s reading of history: as Tim Montgomerie observed last night, the endorsement of a former party leader can sometimes seem like a death knell. It is interesting, though, that it was Lord Oakeshott who launched the first public attack on Clegg’s leadership (that is, if you discount the helpful suggestions from ex-MP Lembit Opik). Not surprising, of course: the party’s former Treasury spokesman in the Lords is not known for delicacy when it comes

Fraser Nelson

Cameron and the truth about debt

In Tampa, the Republican conference has heard a line of powerful speakers talk about government debt in compelling and urgent way. There’s a contingent of eight Tories out there, led by party chairman Sayeeda Warsi, but I doubt they’ll be taking many notes. The finely-honed attack lines that the Republicans are coming out are more use to Labour than to the Tories. Take the below, from Paul Ryan’s speech on Wednesday. ‘They’ve run out of ideas. Their moment came and went. They were elected in the middle of a crisis, as they constantly remind us, but they’re now making it worse. They have added £11,000 of debt for every man,