Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Meanwhile, in Europe…

There probably hasn’t been a meeting of European finance ministers as important as the one tonight. The euro is still at risk; with new governments in Spain, Italy, and Greece incapable of calming the markets, and Angela Merkel unwilling to let the ECB act. In a speech in Berlin, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski put it clearly: ‘I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity.’ It is a fear shared in London and Paris as well. The 17 finance ministers will discuss the range of options on the table: from setting up an EU Treasury to the possibility of eurobonds or establishing a supra-national process

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne plays a tough hand well

Today was always going to be a difficult day for the Chancellor. The figures from the OBR were always going to dominate the headlines and the restrictions of coalition meant that there couldn’t be as much as the Tories would have liked on the supply side. It was striking that the loudest Tory cheer of Osborne’s statement came when he reiterated his opposition to an EU-imposed financial transactions tax. But the silver lining for Osborne and co is that Labour still lack economic credibility. It is hard for Labour to savage Osborne for borrowing more than he said he would — which he is to the tune of £158 billion

Robert Halfon-Mp

Fuelling the recovery

Today, the government has listened. In his Autumn Statement, George Osborne scrapped the fuel tax bombshell that was scheduled for January 2012.    As regular Coffee House readers will know, more than 100 MPs supported my cross-party campaign for cheaper petrol. At its height, it saw an e-petition attract more than 124,000 names — triggering a full MPs’ debate in Parliament. It has been a very long campaign, working with many organisations, from FairFuelUK and the RAC, to the independent forecourt industry, The Spectator and the Sun, to thousands of members of the public who wrote to me in support. Over several months, I have asked questions in Parliament, spoken

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Ron Beats Boris and George

The question of who will succeed David Cameron is, in every essential, a pointless parlour game. Obviously, then, it’s great sport for the press and just the kind of thing to entertain hacks and everyone else at Westminster. The “rivalry” between George Osbore and Boris Johnson is the sort of thing that, if it did not exist, would have to be invented by journalists. (Oh: hang on…) It is the successor to Tony vs Gordon and the Tory counter to the Warring Milibands and is a show that won’t close, we’re told, until 2018 or 2019. So you’ve only to endure another seven or so years of George vs Boris

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne has made the right choice — but it’s not without its costs

Today, George Osborne had a choice. Growth prospects have evaporated, and tax revenues along with it. Should he reopen the 2010 Spending Review and cut the spending totals? Or stick with those totals, and finance this with extra debt? He chose the latter. And I think, on balance, he was right to do so. Credibility is the most valuable currency in this eurozone crisis, and Osborne said it was a fixed five-year plan. He chose more debt over less certainty, and it looks today like the markets believe he chose correctly.  But all this comes at a cost. The government will now run deficits higher than those which Labour proposed.

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Why are the Tories hell-bent on fouling up our countryside?

Your views, please, on the government’s new-found interest in Boris Johnson’s stupid idea of a huge new airport built on the Isle of Grain, in Kent. Johnson, with his recently acquired catamite, Sir Norman Foster, has been agitating for a new airport to be built for half a decade or more. The favoured scheme right now is to pave over one of Britain’s most important wintering grounds for wildfowl, the Isle of Grain, and reclaim more land from the Thames Estuary. There is precious little land left in the south-east of England for wildlife; it is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The north Kent marshes,

Peter Hoskin

Growth has upset Osborne’s plans — and it’s likely to get worse

The real story, as everyone expected, wasn’t in the Pre-Budget Report ‘Green Book’ — but in the supplementary document produced by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility. Growth forecasts have taken a dive. And while that is both unsurprising and not all that revealing, it carries grim implications for so much else. I mean, just look at the graphs we produced in our last post: forecasts for debt, unemployment and borrowing are all up. It is not a pretty picture. But despite the dreariness of it all, I suspect that the numbers are far too optimistic. The clue comes at the start of the OBR report: ‘The central economic and fiscal

Alex Massie Alex Massie

In the Bleak Midwinter; Some Republican Entertainment

British politics is pretty depressing at the moment so thank god for the entertainment provided by the Republican candidates squabbling to become their party’s Presidential nominee. Dark times demand dark comedy leavened by appropriate measures of farce. Hurrah for Newt Gingrich, then. We are advised that he must be taken seriously now that he’s been endorsed by the Manchester Union-Leader even though that paper has in the past supported the likes of Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, Pete DuPont (1988) and Richard Ashbrook (1972). What’s more, the Union-Leader’s publisher thinks it sensible to say Newt “resembles” Winston Churchill. Yes, all this is supposed to be an important symbol and the kind

Jonathan Jones

The Autumn Statement: What you need to know

We’ve been posting some of these charts on Twitter, but here they are, collected, for CoffeeHousers. You can expect more as we mine deeper into the OBR’s supplementary document. Do shout out, also, if you spot anything yourself. 1. Weaker growth — except for a very optimistic figure for 2015 2. Higher debt — both in real terms and as percentage of GDP   3. Osborne borrowing more than he’d hoped 4. More persistent — and deeper — ILO unemployment 5. The squeeze continues until 2013

Peter Hoskin

On the road to break-up?

Before we plunge into the Autumn Statement, we really ought to mention the poison cloud hanging over Brussels today. European finance ministers, including George Osborne, are meeting there later — and it’s certainly not going to be good for their collective health. Klaus Regling, the head of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is expected to tell them that there’s basically no chance of them boosting the bailout fund to €1 trillion in the near future, as was promised at the end of last month. Back then, David Cameron urged eurozone leaders to bring a ‘big bazooka’ to the fight. They have barely managed a cap gun. This is far

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Your Autumn Statement check-list

I very much doubt today’s Pre-Budget Report will be memorable; a shame, given the circumstances. The supplementary Office for Budget Responsibility document will be more interesting — and relevant to people’s lives — than the Budget itself. Sure, everyone focuses their attention on the Red Book (or Green Book, as it is for the PBR) and GDP projections. But even GDP isn’t really useful. You can manipulate GDP by printing money, or by borrowing money. Gets you nowhere. GDP is only useful insofar as it’s a proxy for national prosperity. And thanks to the OBR we’ll have other, more useful metrics today. Here’s my guide to them:   1. Net

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne has a few cards up his sleeve, but no aces

In some ways, George Osborne will always be haunted by his 2007 Tory conference speech. That speech and the reaction to his commitment to raise all estates worth less than £1 million out of inheritance tax contributed to Gordon Brown not calling an early election. It has a claim to be one of the most important speeches in modern British politics — it is certainly the one that saved the Cameron project. But it has also created an expectation that Osborne has a set of aces up his sleeve every time he stands up to give a big speech. Tomorrow’s speech won’t see the Chancellor pull out any unexpected trumps.

Daniel Korski

Egypt may have voted, but don’t celebrate just yet

Many thought the day would never come. Even as recently as yesterday, some doubted it would happen. But today Egyptians went to the polls in the country’s first parliamentary elections since Hosni Mubarak’s fall, hoping to take a first step toward democracy. Under a complex electoral system, voters picked both party lists and individual candidates. The final results are due by 13 January 2012. As it stands, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest and best organised group, along with Salafists, are expected to do well in the vote — after all, Islamists did prosper in the elections in Morocco and Tunisia. But it is not assured. Voters may feel that the

Mats Persson

Cameron may have more leverage in Europe than he thinks

There’s just over a week to go until the crunch EU summit on 8-9 December, so David Cameron has to decide how best to play his cards — and quick. The problem, as Daniel Korski has pointed out, is that Britain faces the risk of ‘structural isolation’ in Europe in the short-term. To counter this, Cameron effectively has two options. First, work with allies on both sides of the euro divide to seek political assurances — formal or informal — against the formation of a two-tier Europe with a more integrated eurozone in the driving seat. Or, second, press ahead with UK-specific carve-outs from the EU structure. The former would

Daniel Korski

The reasons for Angela Merkel’s popularity

The British government is becoming ever more gloomy about the prospects for the euro, believing that Angela Merkel will not do what she has to if the single currency is to survive: namely, let the ECB intervene massively in the markets. Whether it’s because of Germany’s inflation-scarred history, or the hope that market pressure will force reforms in many European states, the Chancellor is holding back. And, it seems, she is getting more and more popular by sticking to her policy.   Mrs Merkel’s popularity is, indeed, related to her handling of the Eurocrisis. In Germany she is seen as having shown the kind of leadership people want, and the

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 28 November 2011

…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson says that Osborne and Balls are like wrestlers, putting on a show but doing no real fighting. And on the Arts Blog, he picks his ten favourite cover versions. James Forsyth reports that the Tories are getting fed up with the Lib Dems’ efforts to show they’re the governing party that cares. Peter Hoskin warns that downgraded growth forecasts will scupper Osborne’s plans, and looks at the battles flaring up ahead of Tuesday’s autumn statement. Daniel Korski suggests how the UK could see off proposals for a Tobin tax in the EU. And on the Book Blog,

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Tobin tactics

The biggest bone of contention between the UK and its EU allies these days is the ‘Tobin tax’, the idea of levying a tax on financial transactions. To the UK this is folly. Unless it is levied globally, a tax will force business to move elsewhere. And there is a greater chance of Silvio Berlusconi being elected ECB chief than the Tobin tax being levied globally.   Based on the experiences of Sweden in the 1990s, the tax will achieve none of what its proponents believe it will — and at a considerable cost to Britain’s and Europe’s economy, as companies look to list elsewhere to avoid it. As Ryan

Patrick Nolan

Why infrastructure isn’t a magic tonic for the economy

Growth plans are a high growth industry — with every day bringing yet another set of ideas, from one quarter or another, for how the government can fix the economy. And one suggestion pops up quite frequently in all these plans: bring forward spending on infrastructure. This is often presented as a simple thing to do, with few (if any) downsides. But how realistic is this? We know that infrastructure is important for growth. Economic texts generally suggest that the ‘multiplier effect’ (when government spending leads to more private spending later on) from is higher for infrastructure spending than for spending in other areas, such as health and welfare. We

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories’ latest frustration with the Lib Dems

Nick Clegg’s interview in The Observer today highlights what is fast becoming one of the biggest tensions in the coalition: the Lib Dem desire to show that they are the governing party who cares. Allies of Iain Duncan Smith have been infuriated by Lib Dem suggestions that the government would be doing little about youth unemployment if it was not for them. But Clegg repeats the claim to The Observer: ‘Whether it’s on youth unemployment, whether it’s on youngsters, whether it’s on getting behind advanced manufacturing and not putting all our eggs into the City of London basket, I don’t think that would have happened without the coalition.’ A growing

Saturday

The Spectator

Barometer | 26 November 2011

Cook’s recipe Shares in Thomas Cook fell 60 per cent after the tour operator entered talks with its banks. — The company’s name has been synonymous with package tours since 1841, when Leicester cabinet-maker and temperance campaigner Thomas Cook took 500 supporters on a day trip to Loughborough on the newly opened railway line for a shilling each. — The first Thomas Cook holiday took place four years later: a trip to Liverpool, or for the more active, a steamboat journey on to Caernavon followed by a night ascent of Snowdon. Incapacity crowd One in 14 working-age people is out of work and receiving incapacity benefit. Some common conditions among