Politics

A credit downgrade, unemployment at 9.1 per cent, spluttering growth — the economic cards are certainly stacked against Obama for his re-election in 2012. But here’s the thing: American punters still think that he’s more likely to win next November than not. Perhaps that’s because, contrary to Clinton’s famous slogan, it’s not actually all about the economy. According to Nate Silver’s analysis of the last 25 presidential elections, a better rule of thumb is “it’s half the economy and half everything else, stupid”. So if Obama’s losing the first half, what about the “everything else”? The proportion of Americans telling Gallup they approve of Obama’s performance hit a new low

Yesterday’s defence select committee report provoked stern critiques of the government’s defence policy from Alex Massie and Matt Cavanagh. It is hard to dissent from Matt’s view that Cameron, Fox and Osborne will be defined to some extent by how they handle the defence brief, which, as Alex points out, also proved to be Gordon Brown’s undoing.  It is also clear, as both Matt and Alex say, that the SDSR suggests that Britain is entering a period of ‘strategic shrinkage’, in terms of the size of the defence establishment at any rate. A political squall has erupted over this, but it’s worth pointing out that western countries are narrowing their military

Business Secretary Vince Cable was on strident form this morning, pledging to drop controversial web-blocking from the government’s plan to tackle internet piracy. But his Conservative colleagues at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), Ed Vaizey and Jeremy Hunt, disagree. Ed Vaizey, the minister responsible for the creative industries, is to chair a meeting on 20th September with internet service providers, copyright holders and other stakeholders, and web-blocking is on the agenda. Originally, the government proposed blocking broadband access at addresses (both real and virtual) where illegal downloads took place. The prevailing consensus suggested that such a practice is unworkable and potentially unfair: why, for instance, should a café be barred just

Frantic deal-making over the weekend appears to have clinched a $2.4 trillion US debt ceiling deal, with $900 billion in initial spending cuts and the rest to be determined by a committee over the autumn. The White House has the official statement here.  There’s still a chance the deal will fail in the House, but Republicans are sounding bullish. And Democrats will probably fall into line — not the least because the expiration of the Bush tax cuts over the next couple years could balance the current ‘all-cuts’ proposal.   Of course, negotiations could breakdown over the next 48 hours, but it’s now clear that, despite their rhetoric, US politicians

At last, signs that Washington’s lawmakers may have scrabbled together a debt deal after all. According to the overnight wires, the White House and Congressional leaders have alighted on a package that would raise the ceiling by $2.4 trillion, so long as the deficit is reduced by at least the same amount over the next ten years. There are more details here, but the key claim is that around $1.2 trillion of immediate spending cuts have already been agreed upon, with a Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction measures by the end of November. And although these proposals will still have to pass through the corridors of Congress, leaders

Are the seeping knife wounds healing at last? This morning’s Guardian reveals that Ed Miliband has offered his older brother a role as Labour’s “unofficial ambassador on university and college campuses”, and that David Miliband has accepted. Although party sources tell the paper that “this should not be seen as a sign that [MiliD] is being lined up for an early shadow cabinet return,” it surely is a sign that the two brothers are repairing their damaged relationship. From barely speaking to each other to mutually preaching the Labour gospel to a bunch of students. It’s progress.   Putting aside the fraternal aspects of the story, it is also an