Politics Archives

Wednesday

25 Jan 2012

Salmond: Scotland Free By 2016?

So, the game is afoot. The Scottish government today published its consultation document on an independence referendum to be held in the autumn of 2014. You can read it all here though I should warn you that most of it is entirely unobjectionable. If Mr Salmond is the salesman he hopes he is, the next Scottish parliament – due to be elected in May 2016 – will be the first to govern an independent nation since that auld sang ended in 1707. I notice, however, that the favoured question proffered by the SNP has changed. As recently as last year it proposed asking for a mandate to open negotiations. This

Lloyd Evans

Miliband delivers for once, but Cameron’s left unharmed

Incredible events in the chamber today. An absolute sensation at PMQS. For the first time since last summer, Ed Miliband got through the session without triggering talk of a leadership crisis. There was gloomy news aplenty to dwell on. Debts soaring; growth flat-lining; dole queues snaking back through blighted high streets and bankrupt business parks. The Labour leader chose to wallop Cameron with a well-prepared attack on the NHS. Quoting the prime minister’s vow, ‘to take our nurses and doctors with us’, he asked why the government had stopped listening. The prime minister’s reply was frivolous and desperate. He giggled and smirked like a teenager at the despatch box and

James Forsyth

Both leaders left smiling after PMQs

Today was one of those PMQs when you sensed that both sides were fairly happy with how it had gone. Ed Miliband turned in one of his stronger performances, cleverly splitting his questions and so allowing himself to have a go at both the economy and the coalition’s troubled NHS reforms. Cameron, for his part, got through what was always going to be a difficult session for him after this morning’s negative growth numbers. Strikingly, there were four planted Tory questions on the benefits cap. The Tories know that Labour’s vote against it compounds one of their biggest vulnerabilities, the sense they are the party for people on benefits

James Forsyth

Europe gives Osborne the context he needs

The political implications of today’s growth numbers are complex. On one level, a contraction in the economy should provide Miliband and Balls with an opportunity to make their economic case against the government. Indeed, Balls is already out with a statement calling the GDP figures a ‘damning indictment of David Cameron and George Osborne’s failed economic plan’. I suspect that Miliband is also looking forward to PMQs rather more than normal. But on the other hand, as long as Cameron and Osborne enjoy a big lead on the economy — 18 points in the last ICM survey — bad economic news will reinforce voters’ tendency to stick close to

Peter Hoskin

Bad news doesn’t have to be surprising

I’m still of the mind that Westminster fusses too much about these quarterly growth figures, particularly when parts of the country have been in economic decline for decades. But there’s no doubting that they have the capacity to shift the political mood, both here and around the country. There is something disheartening about the idea that the economy returned to shrinkage in the final quarter of last year (even if today’s preliminary figure of -0.2 per cent might be revised upwards, or downwards, in due course). You can expect Ed Miliband to make much of it in this afternoon’s PMQs. The politics of the situation are not stacked entirely against

Peter Hoskin

GDP fell by 0.2 per cent in Q4 2011

More here.

Tuesday

24 Jan 2012

James Forsyth

Salmond’s dangerous strategy

Cartoonists like to portray Alex Salmond as a modern-day Braveheart preparing to charge the English enemy. But, in truth, Salmond’s strategy is far more subtle — and dangerous — than that. The SNP leader’s piece in The Guardian today — a preview of the Hugo Young lecture he’s delivering tonight — downplays what a dramatic step independence would be. At times the article reads like an argument for ‘devo max’, not independence. He bemoans that devolution ‘left Scotland with fewer powers than the German Länder, most American states, parts of Spain or, within these islands, the Isle of Man’. Salmond also wants to suggest that not that much

Fraser Nelson

Osborne owes Darling an apology

Britain’s national debt rose to over £1 trillion last month, and will never return below this threshold. George Osborne is increasing net debt by 61.5 per cent in real terms over this parliament, more than the 59.9 per cent which Labour proposed when it fought the last election. Here’s how the OBR’s current projections for debt contrast with what Darling proposed in his last Budget: At the time, Osborne said Labour’s debt plan was reckless and unsustainable. I think he owes Alistair Darling a generous apology. Then, Darling said he’d halve the deficit over four years. Too slow, said Osborne. Now, he’s taking five years to do it – as the

Fraser Nelson

The bias towards migrant workers

Why are you never served by a Londoner in a London branch of Pret A Manger? I asked this in the Telegraph recently, and yesterday’s Evening Standard had a great piece tracking down four who applied, and were rejected without an interview. Some suspect there is a bias in favour of immigrants: if your name doesn’t sound exotic, game over. I doubt that a company like Pret, whose most valued ingredient is the famous enthusiasm of its staff, can afford to discriminate in any way. But the wider point is a very serious one: that British employers have come to prefer immigrants, believing that they work harder. And that a

Monday

23 Jan 2012

James Forsyth

A defeat that delights the Tories

Rarely can a government have been so pleased to have been defeated. The Tories are, privately, delighted that the Lords have voted to water down the benefit cap, removing child benefit from it. The longer this attempt to cap benefit for non-working households at £26,000 stays in the news, the better it is for the government. It demonstrates to the electorate that they are trying to do something about the injustices of the something for nothing culture. The matter will now returns to the Commons where the coalition is confident it can be reversed. I understand that Nick Clegg remains solid on the issue, despite the fact that Ashdown and

Freddy Gray

Have American conservatives given up?

That tubby, unlovable rogue Newt Gingrich is on a big roll. His poll ratings are surging ahead of the Florida primary next week. This despite the fact that almost everyone, even the good fellows at National Review, can see what a disastrous candidate he is. Gingrich has — this hardly needs saying — a terrible record in office, a long list of involvements in dodgy deals, an embarrassing private life, a dubious legacy as a man of ‘conservative principles’, and a deeply unpleasant face. (Sorry, but such things can matter in elections.) For a good run-down of his failings, see here. Or, as a sample, look at this image flying

James Forsyth

A Chris Huhne prediction that didn’t come true

Chris Huhne attacked David Cameron for the EU veto in Cabinet back in December. At the time, one Cabinet minister told me that part of Huhne’s critique was that Cameron had scuppered the chances of a Liberal Democrat MEP, Sharon Bowles, being reelected as chair of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, which deals with financial services. But Bowles has been reelected. In a Lib Dem press release welcoming this, Nick Clegg declares that: ‘As party leader, I am proud that we have a leading Liberal Democrat in such a prominent and powerful position on the international scene. As UK Deputy Prime Minister, I am delighted and

Peter Hoskin

Cable teaches Umunna a lesson about the past

If you were in a particularly soggy mood, you’d almost feel sorry for Chuka Umunna. He’d managed to force Vince Cable into the House this afternoon, to announce the coalition’s plans for curbing executive pay a day earlier than planned, and he must have been feeling pretty swell about it. This was, on paper, the initiative seized; a chance to prise open the Business Secretary’s differences with his Tory colleagues. But, in practice, it was something completely different. In practice, Cable dispatched his opponent with ruthless ease. You might even have found yourself in the unthinkable position of cheering him on. A large part of it was Umunna’s petty, needling

James Forsyth

Benefitting the Tories

The longer the row over the benefit cap goes on, the better it will be for the Tories. The cap chimes with the public’s sense of fairness. Polls show massive public support for capping benefits at £26,000 a year for non-working households (the cap won’t apply to the disabled or war widows), and if Labour oppose it, they’ll be handing the Tories a stick with which to beat them. Chris Grayling has already declared that tonight’s vote in the Lords is ‘a test of Ed Miliband’s leadership’. Those who argue that the cap isn’t fair because it will force people to move out of their house are missing the point.

Daniel Korski

Welcome, Croatia

Croatia’s EU referendum was overwhelming — more than two-thirds of voters favoured the young state’s accession to the European Union. This is an important moment. For it shows that another part of Yugoslavia is intent on leaving its violent past behind and move into the European mainstream. Croatia and its newly-elected government still faces many problems — corruption, judicial favouritism and xenophobia among them — but the journey to a milder and more moderate society can now continue. When Croatia accedes to the EU, probably next year, it will be an example to those states in the Balkans, like Bosnia, Albania and Serbia, that wish to join the EU

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 23 January 2012

…here are some posts made on Spectator.co.uk over the weekend: Fraser Nelson introduces the new Coffee House app. James Forsyth says that Labour’s confusion is the Tories’ advantage, and questions the abortion providers that are planning to advertise on TV. Peter Hoskin observes the Lib Dems differentiating all over the place, and reports on Andrew Lansley’s latest problems. Jonathan Jones reports on Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina. Martin Bright wonders what’s happened to compassionate Conservatism. Nick Cohen laments the dangerous silence of the media. Rod Liddle reveals his favourite nighttime diversion. The Spectator Arts Blog has a Radiohead-themed Spotify Sunday. And Matt Hancock is the Spectator Book Blog’s latest

Fraser Nelson

Sorry, Tristram — but capitalism is just what the British public does

Tristram Hunt, the historian and Labour MP, has written a brilliant rebuttal to my piece in the Telegraph last week, in which I said that capitalism is hardwired in Britain’s DNA. Socialism, he says, is also hardwired into our country’s mindset. Writing for Comment Is Free, he says: ‘There is another story of Britishness a long way from the template of Cameron and the Spectator. It is a tradition of redistribution, intervention and socialism equally as compelling as Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” (which, one should remember, was a satirical attack on laissez-faire morality, drawn from Shakespeare’s Macbeth)… [the] British strand of social criticism continued into the 19th century with the

Sunday

22 Jan 2012

Nick Cohen

How freedom goes

Joan Smith has a piece in the Independent about religious censorship of open debate in Britain, a supposedly free country. It is well written and argued, as Smith’s writing invariably is, but what distinguishes it is that it is the only defence of our liberties in the Sunday papers. Consider the events of the past few days: i) At Queen Mary, University of London students went to hear Anne Marie Waters speak on behalf of the One Law For All — a campaign to stop Sharia law afflicting British women. An angry young man entered the lecture theatre. He filmed the audience on his mobile, and told them he knew

James Forsyth

Labour’s confusion is the Tories’ advantage

Today’s polls make grim reading for Labour. Even three months ago senior Labour or Tory people wouldn’t have thought that the Tories would be five points ahead at this point in the cycle. Part of Labour’s problem is that its positions require too much explanation. As one Number 10 source jokes, ‘Ed Miliband can do a Rubik’s cube in less time than it takes him to explain his position on the cuts.’ A prime example of these overly complicated policy positions is Labour’s approach to the benefit cap. The leadership says that it is in favour of a cap in principle but against this one in practice. But, I suspect

Jerry Hayes

Gay pride

Now that the Tory party is about to embark on an unedifying internal spat over gay marriage, I would commend students of political history to read Michael McManus’s beautifully written and well-researched book Tory Pride and Prejudice: the Conservative Party and Homosexual Reform. Readers may be surprised to learn that supporters of the decriminalisation of homosexual acts in private included Enoch Powell, Margaret Thatcher, Patrick Jenkin and Ian Mcleod. They were lonely figures in those early days. The paradox that the Conservative party faced is best summed up by Guy (now Lord) Black: ‘It was one of those phenomena that, when the Conservative party appeared nationally to be at its