Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

The Tunnel Ridge Fault election

At times the chasm between Britain’s political parties is as great as the San Andreas Fault. Sometimes the difference is more like a small rift, a matter of tone not policy. In this year’s election, the difference between the parties is somewhere in between, like the lesser-known Tunnel Ridge Fault in Eastern California. In part, the appearance of only minor differences may explain why the polls are showing such different things; some predict that Labour will hang on to power, others that the Tories will be able to win. But campaigning will bring out the differences between the parties – and the party leaders – into full view to an

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Behind enemy lines

Well, well Gordon Brown has started his election campaign in a constituency that is notionally a Tory seat. Rochester and Strood is being fought for the first time at this election but the invaluable UK Polling Report tells us that the Tories would have just won this seat in 2005. I suspect that Brown has headed to Kent on the first day of the campaign in an attempt to show that Labour haven’t written off the south east despite coming fifth there in the European elections and that Labour is still a national party. David Cameron is off to Birmingham and Yorkshire and the shadow Cabinbet are fanning out across

Peter Hoskin

Oh, and the Lib Dems too…

Nick Clegg – who he?  According to a poll this morning, that’s what two-thirds of the country will be thinking when they see the Lib Dem leader on their screens over the next few weeks.  But, regardless, he and his party are worth paying attention to.  Most importantly, of course, because of the possibility of a hung parliament.  But there’s also the matter of the leaders’ debates, in which Clegg will have a bigger platform than he’s ever had before.  You sense that Lib Dems activists think they really matter this time around. So all eyes on Cowley St, where Clegg kicked off his party’s election campaign earlier.  Two things

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron launches the ‘modern Conservative alternative’

Reaganesque was the word that sprang to mind watching Cameron’s launch event. Standing on the terrace of County Hall with Parliament behind him, providing the snappers with some great images, Cameron spoke about the ‘modern Conservative alternative’ to five more years of Gordon Brown. The implicit message was youth and vigour. This was one of those occasions where the visuals matter more than what was actually said. The no-notes speech contained a string of attacks on Labour’s waste and the prospect of five more years of Brown. But Cameron was careful to sandwich this with some optimism. At the start he said that a vote for the Tories was a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The parties tussle for media attention

Westminster today is dominated by the sound of helicopters hovering over head, waiting for Brown to set off from Downing Street to the Palace. This morning is the last time that Brown will have the full political advantage of his office, the ability to set the news agenda. The Tories are attempting to step on this by scheduling their campaign launch for bang in the middle of the time when Brown is expected to be at the Palace requesting a dissolution of parliament. I suspect that we are in for a game of media chicken with Brown trying to rush back to Downing Street and announce that the election is

Martin Bright

The Inter-Generational Election

Geoffrey Wheatcroft has kicked off the election campaign with possibly the most depressing article I have ever read about British politics. Jetting off to the States for an academic engagement, the old curmudgeon says he feels no regret at missing an election in which he has lost interest.  This say more about the author of the piece than the election, which promises to be the most fascinating in my adult life. But then I am nearly twenty years younger than Mr Wheatcroft. His central argument is that the Labour and Conservative messages are uninspiring. The Labour government will admit that the situation is dire, but claim it would be worse

Peter Hoskin

Now’s the time

If there’s anything we don’t already know about today, then I’m struggling to find it.  The election will be declared for 6th May.  Brown will make a pitch which bears close resemblance to his interview in the Mirror today: “We have come so far. Do we want to throw this all away?”  Cameron will say that the Tories are fighting this election for the “Great Ignored”.  Clegg will claim that the Lib Dems represent “real fairness and real change”.  A hundred news helicopters will buzz around Westminster.  A thousand blog-posts (including this one) will have headlines to the effect of “And so it begins…”.  And we’ll all read the Guardian’s

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Labour’s Manifesto: The Shortest Abdication Note in History?

And so it begins. At last. The phoney war is over and now the grapeshot will be flying thick and fast. There will be casualties aplenty, decency, honesty and your patience amongst ’em. I’m sticking to my view, which is neither especially daring nor unconventional, that the Conservatives will win and finish with a majority of 30 or so seats. Sticking, I say, even though obviously I reserve the right to change my mind several times between now and polling day. For ages now – or at least it feels like ages – I’ve been arguing that whatever doubts one may reasonably have about Cameron the Tories appear to have

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

If David Cameron were American, would he be a Republican?

Tim Montgomerie has a nice way with understatement. His capsule-sized overview of the campaign to come, published by National Review Online, contains this passage: Cameron will not be to the liking of every U.S. Republican, but he’s much closer to American conservatism than the ruling Labour Party or the third party, the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative leader promises to abolish inheritance tax for all but millionaires. He will recognise marriage in the tax system. He promises to vote for tighter abortion laws. His most radical policy is a policy of school choice that will end the monopoly of provision currently misused by local government. He also plans to produce transparent

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Quote for the Day*

Courtesy of Stephanie Flanders, the BBC’s Economics Editor: Welcome to the election. If we’re to believe Alistair Darling, the Conservatives’ ‘credibility gap’ on tax and spending has shrunk by 34% since January, or about £11bn. If they carry on like this, they might be thoroughly credible by election day. Naturally, that is not how the chancellor put it in his press conference this morning, as he released more than 180 pages detailing the Conservative Party’s (new and improved) “Credibility Deficit”. Back in January, Labour said there was a £33.8bn hole in the Conservatives’ plans. Now it’s fallen to £22.2bn – suggesting a 34% rise in credibiliy. But, to coin a

Alex Massie Alex Massie

President Petraeus Watch

Not much news came out of Washington last week which doubtless explains why my old chum Toby Harnden used his Telegraph column to chew over the Petraeus 2012 “speculation” one more time. This won’t be the last we hear of this, I assure you. Alas, as Toby laments, the good General stubbornly refuses to play along: The problem is that Petraeus appears to have no desire to be commander-in-chief. His denials of any political ambition have come close to the famous statement by General William Sherman. The former American Civil War commander, rejecting the possibility of running for president in 1884 by stating: “I will not accept if nominated and

Daniel Korski

Have a gay time

Chris Grayling’s erstwhile view that Britain’s inn-keepers can interpret anti-discrimination legislation as they see fit belongs where he originally found it: in the biggot bin. There is no place for anti-gay views in British politics, or the Conservative Party. This is not just a question of electioneering — ie currying favour with a symbolically important segment of the electorate – but is a matter of decency. Homosexuals have as much place in modern Britain as everyone else. A worrying part of the airing of Grayling’s (now-disavowed) comments is that it has given Labour an excuse to tarnish the Conservatives with an anti-homosexual brush. Grayling’s words had barely hit the airwaves when the

David Blackburn

Grayling’s gay gaffe

The Tories have weathered Chris Grayling’s gay gaffe. The story could only gain momentum if the papers had gone to town on it. They have not. The Times gives it a couple of paragraphs at the bottom of an inner page and even the Independent and the Guardian relegate it to the interior. The news agenda has gone into election over-drive, but I doubt this story would have had legs anyway, even before his denial. Grayling is no homophobe and whilst he voted for the Equality bill he is right that it should be applied with a soft-touch where the boundary between public and private space is blurred. The State should not dictate

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The true cost of Brown’s debt binge

When Alistair Daring admitted last week that there would indeed be job losses arising from the proposed National Insurance hike, it would have struck Gordon Brown and Ed Balls like root canal surgery. This blows wide open the main part of Brown’s election deceit: asking the public to look at the advantages of the borrowing, and not contemplate the flip side to the debt coin. Not to ask where the repayments will come from, or the impact of those repayments on the jobs of the future. No wonder Darling is today being made to claim the opposite. The grim truth is that every job “protected” now, due to debt, will

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Political Consultancy Racket

As mentioned, one of the things we talked about during the House of Comments podcast was what, if anything, British pols can learn from the Obama campaign. The answer: much less than the press might have you think. Sure, there’s puff piece after puff piece about how both parties are snapping up Obama “advisors” in order to give the impression that they’re the Next Big Thing themselves. This Sunday Times piece was neither the first nor, alas, the last of such nonsenses. This is not America, people. If you needed reminding that this is the case, consider the fact that ConservativeHome is trying to raise £1,000 online today. That’s right,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown helps Cameron to define his Big Idea

Gordon Brown has walked straight into George Osborne’s trap. After bleating that the national insurance tax cut is unaffordable, he has decided to make this a massive election dividing line – claiming that this teeny (1 percent of state spending) tax cut somehow poses a mortal danger to an economic recovery.  Please, God, let him keep on this message through the campaign. “The Tories are proposing to cut your taxes and make you better off – stop this lunacy, and vote Labour”. But Alastair Darling has taken it further, with a significant piece of language on the radio this morning. The Tory tax cut, he says, is “taking money out

Sunday

David Blackburn

Tory wars are history

In lighter moments, Gordon Brown is alleged to imagine that he is John Major and David Cameron is Neil Kinnock. Now, I think the Tories will win outright, but would Cameron resign if Brown’s daydreams became reality? ‘No,’ Cameron tells the Mail on Sunday. Despite the bravado, Cameron must fear a challenge hot on the heels of failure – emasculated backbenchers have threatened as much in private recently. By reputation, Tories romance in intrigue and excel at regicide; yet few credible usurpers exist. William Hague’s low campaign profile denotes spent ambition as much as it does proximity to Lord Ashcroft.  Liam Fox is admirable but has never commanded sufficient support

Peter Hoskin

Two steps forward for the Tories, one step backwards for the Lib Dems

Last week, the Tories strengthened their tax-cutting credentials with a smart policy on national insurance.  I’m sure you didn’t miss it.  But one part of the recent Tory resurgence is, to my mind, being underplayed: they now have a much stronger message on government waste.  After all, the NI policy is being funded by cutting waste.  And then there was that spoof website which pulled the limelight onto Labour’s wasted spending.  And then there are the interviews in which Tory frontbenchers – such as William Hague today – say stuff like: “If there’s waste in government spending, which the Labour Government says there is, we should be saving the waste,

Daniel Korski

For the Tories, finding “good” EU issues gets harder

I recently sat down with a European foreign minister to discuss the EU’s enlargement strategy and how it would deal with those applicant countries, like in the Western Balkans, who want to join the Union but whose chances of integration in the next ten years or so are limited. We tried to write down those of his ministerial colleagues who could be brought together for a regular discussion of the issue; we stopped at five names.  Only five EU foreign ministers out of 27 could be counted on to join an unscheduled discussion about enlargement policy. That’s a problem, including for the Tories. Here is why. The Tories are not