Politics Archives

Thursday

22 Apr 2010

Is Europe a Con-Lib deal-breaker?

Europe is likely to play a big role in tonight’s debate. It is probably the one issue that divides the Liberal Democrats and the Tories as much as electoral reform. Nick Clegg, a former MEP and adviser to then-EU Commissioner Leon Brittan, is a euro-enthusiast who would like Britain to join the Euro, even if it takes time. David Cameron is a euro-skeptic (though not, to the chagrin of many CoffeHouse readers, obsessed about the issue). But neither wants a confrontation with the EU and other European governments over the next four years – and the Liberal Democrats have become quieter over time about their pro-EU tendencies. Their support

Rod Liddle

Our cross to bear

Terrific stuff from Nick Clegg, reported in the Daily Mail here. Nick suggests Britain has a misplaced sense of superiority as a consequence of winning the second world war, should recognize that Germany has become a “vastly” more prosperous country and that we have a “greater cross to bear” than the Germans for the events of 1939-45. This is interesting because it is precisely the views of almost all foreigners, except for maybe the Norwegians. Nick seemed to have formed these notions while serving as an MEP, open to the influence of those Europeans around him and to whom he was inclined to suck up, and maybe also the input

David Blackburn

Clegg sets Cameron a trap over the EU

I’d expected the papers to be full of Nick Clegg’s offer of an ‘In/Out’ EU referendum, should the EU draw up a treaty that would further alter the British constitution. He made the pledge on radio yesterday; he insisted that he would campaign to remain in the EU, but the people should decide. The papers are silent as yet, but I expect Clegg to have another crack this evening. For all his wide-eyed innocence, Clegg’s a cunning knave. Scenting dissent if not panic among conservatives, Clegg offers eurosceptics 30 pieces of silver. His promise is utterly disingenuous: Clegg’s record on the Lisbon Treaty proves he cannot be trusted, and the

Alex Massie

Operation Kneecap Clegg Begins

Ah, the majesty of the British press! The Telegraph splashes on the fact that various Lib Dem donors funded a researcher and that these funds were paid into his own bank account. A curious, perhaps even sloppy, arangement that may do Clegg some damage but that does not seem to be especially venal not least beacuse the contributions were declared to the fees office and the Electoral Commission. “Stuff and nonsense” declared Paxman on Newsnight and I doubt the story, while not good for Clegg, has anything more than dwarf legs. Then the Mail splashes on Nick Clegg in Nazi slur on Britain as he claims ‘our delusions of grandeur’

Wednesday

21 Apr 2010

Alex Massie

Better Polling Please

Or rather, different polling. Each night it’s the same: we await the latest polls to see if any air has leaked from the Clegg bubble or Cameron has regained the Big Mo or Gordon come alive and then we plug the numbers into Electoral Calculus or UK Polling Report or the BBC and see What It All Means in terms of how the numbers become seats at Westminster. I wonder if most of it means very little. This goes beyond, but includes, the caveats we always apply about uniform national swings being a crude measurement and all the rest of it. Consider Scotland – a useful study and not just

James Forsyth

Osborne comes out fighting

George Osborne put in a fiery and impressive performance in the Chancellor’s debate today, firing off some memorable one-liners as well as unveiling a letter from the former head of the anti-avoidance group at the Treasury questioning the sums on which the Lib Dems’ tax plans depend. Indeed, since the Lib Dems surged, Osborne has found another level to his public performances. Today’s debate win followed a good spot by Osborne on the Politics Show on Sunday. One striking thing about the debate was how it was Darling who signaled the assault on Cable when he started querying Vince’s numbers. It’ll be fascinating to see if Brown takes any

Alex Massie

A Modest Conservative Case for Modest Electoral Reform

No electoral system is perfect. First Past the Post has its advantages and it’s a mistake to suppose that switching to the Alternative Vote or multi-member constituencies elected by STV solves all problems. On the contrary it probably replaces one set of difficulties with another. Nevertheless, one wonders how sustainable FPTP is. Traditionally it has done a pretty good job of corralling extremism and producing more-or-less coherent governments that can command a majority in the House of Commons (and that can be unceremoniously turfed-oot once they’ve outlived their usefulness). Unfortunately – and increasingly – those governments enjoy only minority support in the country-at-large. Political allegiance is more fluid and conditional

Daniel Korski

Get ready for “Clameronism”

Since the Lib Dems starting surging there has been no shortage of speculation about the possible coalitions that may emerge after the election – Lab-Lib, Lib-Lab, Con-Lib. There has also been breathless speculation about what posts Nick Clegg might demand, including by yours truly. But none have been as cleverly-written as Hugo Brady’s. A think-tanker for CER, Brady is predicting the rise of “Clameronism“: ‘Buoyed by a huge increase in the Liberal vote, Clegg at first opted for opposition. He bet that a swift second election was likely and that the Liberal Democrats would again double their seats. But the threat of a new financial crisis later that year spelt

David Blackburn

The worst ever?

Danny Finkelstein nominates Lord Pearson’s appearance on The Campaign Show as the worst interview ever given by a party leader in an election campaign. I second that.

David Blackburn

Cable catches a broadside

What is the difference between ‘an alternative’ and ‘an addition’? It is on this question that the Liberal Democrat manifesto turns. If there is a difference, then there is a substantial black hole in their deficit reduction plans. There is a difference. The manifesto presents a £3.4bn public sector payroll measure as an addition to existing government measures, when in fact the small-print discloses that it’s an alternative. Caught double counting, at best the Lib Dems would cut £36.6bn of the £40bn or so pledged. Under further scrutiny from Andrew Neil and Stephanie Flanders, Cable could not define where a further £10bn of cuts was coming from. £20bn of the

Alex Massie

A Tory-Liberal Coalition is Easier than a Lib-Lab Pact?

I’m glad to see that more people – Iain Dale, John Rentoul, Iain Martin among them – are paying attention to Labour’s eclipse. At present Labour could finish third in the popular vote for the first time since 1922 and yet many people seem to assume that a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition or arrangement of some sort is the most likely, even inevitable, outcome of a hung parliament. I don’t believe this is the case and not only because of Nick Clegg’s attack on “desperate” Gordon Brown this morning. The Liberal Democrats have based their campaign for proportional representation on the grounds that it is unfair that, as they did in

David Blackburn

Taking the attack to Vince

With Cable’s and Clegg’s personal ratings being so high, the trick is to play the ball not the man. Ken Clarke and George Osborne achieved that at this morning’s press conference. Clarke said: “(Nick Clegg’s father was) a very nice, very wise guy, he was a very successful City guy, but he wasn’t a flashy guy… he was a Tory. It would have been better if Nick had stuck to the political principles of his father. (Nick Clegg) must regret going into the strange wastelands of Liberal Democrat politics.” He added that whilst he agreed with “70 percent” of Vince Cable’s analysis on the financial collapse, Cable’s solutions left him

Alex Massie

The Lib Dems’ Iran Gaffe

It’s a gaffe, of course, because it is both true and something you’re not supposed to say. Be this as it may, it strikes me that while political professionals and grizzled foreign policy specialists may chunter about the Liberals’ naivete and the rest of it, the general public will be less likely to complain that the party opposed to attacking Iran is the dangerous, mad party that can’t be trusted. Both views, for sure, have some merit. And so do Brother Korski’s questions: What would the Lib Dems do if negotiations fail? Negotiate some more? So what happens if the International Community agrees to military action? What would Nick Clegg

David Blackburn

The Tories need to get economical

Nick Clegg handed Gordon Brown a lifeline in one respect: the economy’s old hat compared to the Clegg frenzy. Not any more. The news that unemployment rose by 43,000 between December and February, together with yesterday’s dramatic inflation rise, has dumped the economy back onto the front pages. The Tories must keep it there; this election should be about the economy and nothing else. Obviously, these figures, which are worse than expected, lend weight to the argument that Brown’s policies impair recovery. Also, they demolish Brown’s claim that he ran up a deficit in the boom years to protect employment: unemployment is now higher than it was 16 years ago.

Daniel Korski

Nick Clegg and the 3 am phone call

Compared to many CoffeeHousers, I don’t find the Liberal Democrat’s foreign policy positions as problematic. Nick Clegg is smart, internationalist and has – unlike David Cameron and Gordon Brown (and Tony Blair) – plenty of foreign policy pre-leadership experience. But looking through the Lib Dem manifesto, I came across its pledge on Iran, which is quite problematic for a party that is keen to shed its beardie-wierdie, peacenik image and whose leader may even end up running the Foreign Office. The manifesto says that, on the one hand, the Lib Dems support “action by the international community to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.” But the party also makes clear that

David Blackburn

Flattery gets you nowhere Gordon

As Lance Price wrote yesterday, venerating your opponent is an odd campaign strategy. But Gordon Brown is an inveterate flirt, and he’s at it again this morning, fluttering his eyelashes at Nick Clegg across the pages of the Independent: ‘We have to show people we are in the business of the new politics and we have a plan for that as well as the economy. I don’t think people have yet focused on that. We’re serious about change. That is my mission…There is some common ground on the constitutional issues. It is up to the Liberals to respond.’ Labour has responded to Cleggmania by intensifying its Lib Dem love-bombing. The

Tuesday

20 Apr 2010

James Forsyth

What happens if this is the result?

Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems three point ahead. They are on 34, the Tories on 31 and Labour on 26. In terms of working out what this would mean in seats, I doubt that uniform national swing is that useful. But for the sake of argument, let’s imagine that did occur. These poll numbers would leave Labour as the largest party in the Commons and the Lib Dems as the third party. One wonders what on earth happens then. The Palace would pretty much have to summon Brown, he’s the sitting Prime Minister and would be the leader of the party with the most seats. But I

Alex Massie

Clegg Helps Cameron, Not Brown

Oh, sure, the rise of the Liberal Democrats is a problem for the Conservatives too and it doesn’t help their chances of securing an overall majority. But it may be an even bigger problem for Gordon Brown. Can anyone really remember anything Labour have said since Thursday’s debate? Not really. It’s as though Labour have been erased from the campaign entirely, leaving the field to the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Cleggathon has had another effect: it reinforces the case for change and strengthens and deepens the media narrative about change. This too must cost Labour dear. The media has constructed a campaign story that accepts that change is a

David Blackburn

The Pepys of the Blair Years

Fleet Street resounds to just one gag today: every ash cloud has its silver lining. Tony Blair is marooned in the Middle East and won’t be plugging his memoirs at this week’s London Book Fair. I wonder if he’ll adopt a few Semitic shrugs to accompany the gauche Cary Grant accent. Still, we must wait longer for the author of Blairism’s recollections. Blair may have degraded into self-caricature, but his premiership deserves a literary legacy. It was dominated by thrilling conflicting narratives. Blair’s obvious political skill was matched by convictions over which the three parties still battle: public service reform, choice and eradicating entrenched social divisions to name but three.

Peter Hoskin

Numbers which show why the TV debates are priceless for Nick Clegg

How valuable was the TV debate to the Lib Dems? Well, we’ve seen the poll numbers, of course. But the Electoral Commission has just released some figures which shine a different light on proceedings. They show that the Tories received party donations totalling £1.46m in the first week of the campaign. Labour, nearly £800k. And the Lib Dems were way, way behind on £20,000. So, Clegg & Co. are heavily outgunned financially – but they’ve still had the biggest upsurge in publicity and popularity. True, donations to the Lib Dems have risen dramatically since the TV debate – but it’s still unlikely that they’ll reach Tory, or even Labour, levels