Politics Archives

Monday

3 May 2010

One crumb of comfort for Gordon

One small piece of cheer for Gordon Brown as he heads towards annihilation is that he no longer has the support of The Guardian. That leaves it slightly easier for others of us to vote Labour. The Guardian has never been a party of the left, but instead one of the metro liberal faux left. It was, for a while, utterly besotted with the SDP – possibly the most high-born party to have contested an election in Britain since the Marquess of Rockingham in 1782. In a sense, Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger is being wholly consistent, in supporting whichever public schoolboy standing for PM has the cutest smile. Otherwise, if

David Blackburn

The Tories will trust in the Irish

The Telegraph reports that a Conservative minority government would rely on an ‘informal understanding’ with Unionist MPs and that David Cameron is preparing the ground for co-operation. It’s a courageous plan, in the Sir Humphrey sense. Many journalists argue that Cameron has a duty to preserve the Union. Certainly he does, but his overtures to the Ulster Unionists have been self-defeating. There is an assumption that the Unionist parties are conservative. Besides conserving the Union, they are not. Back in February, I reported that the Tory alliance with Reg Empey was serving only to eviscerate the UUP, as its socialist and social democratic factions revolted against Tory alignment. Sylvia Hermon,

John Osullivan

Why aren’t the Tories doing better?

My apologies for responding so tardily to Alex Massie’s post of Friday, but it was quite well hidden, maybe prudently so. He begins by objecting to my assertion on National Review Online that given the failure and unpopularity of Labour, “the Tories [as the main opposition party] ought to be winning easily and by a landslide.” This is an unfair critique, he argues, because “it’s the failures of the past and that he inherited that make Dave’s task so difficult. If 2005 hadn’t been such a ghastly failure perhaps the Tories wouldn’t need to win an extra 130 seats to win a majority. *In other words, they essentially need a

Fraser Nelson

Cameron will walk the line

“Don’t fall for it, Dave!” implores the front cover of this week’s The Spectator – together with a leader (precis here) urging him to form a minority government rather than enter any pact with the LibDems. It looks like he will not disappoint us. The Telegraph today discloses that: ‘Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night,

Alex Massie

Does Cameron Understand How PR Works?

This is, I’m afraid, a real question and one to which the answer would appear to be no. Today’s text comes courtesy of John Rentoul and his colleague at the Independent on Sunday, Jane Merrick. On the matter of voting reform here’s what David Cameron has to say: JM: Is it true you once said if you had to have electoral reform then STV [Single Transferable Vote] would be better than AV [Alternative Vote]? DC: My problem is I don’t see AV as effective reform, because you keep the constituency link, but you could end up with a more disproportionate result. It seems to me AV doesn’t really do it.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories plan to cut early – but how would their opponents respond?

Oh yes, the Tories are broadcasting more Ready For Government noises this morning. There’s an article in the Telegraph suggesting that David Cameron would choose a minority government ahead of coalition with the Lib Dems. And the Guardian reports that a Tory government would set out a bulkload of spendings cuts in the first six months of office, when, as a senior Tory puts it, the “excitement of the general election aftermath” will still be hanging in the air. You can understand the Tory thinking here. Not only will they find it easier to achieve things during the heat and righteous fury of early government, but they will also need

Martin Bright

Old Comrades Drift Back to Labour

I have had a number of shocked emails from old friends on the left following my previous post here, which many saw as an endorsement of the Liberal Democrats. In fact, I remain one of the great undecided. This weekend I witnessed some good comrades embracing the party of the workers. Nick Cohen devoted his column in the Observer to the thesis (adapting Chesterton) that “when people stop believing in Labour they don’t believe in nothing – they believe in anything”. Meanwhile, Norman Geras of normblog has published the five reasons he will be voting Labour. There is much soul-searching out there in liberal Britain. The Observer’s brilliant but tortured endorsement of the Lib

Peter Hoskin

Nothing but negativity

A telling passage from Nicholas Watt and Patrick Wintour’s campaign report this morning: “Gordon Brown visited 10 London constituencies [yesterday] eventually leaving a pub in Kilburn by a side door after it was besieged by Tory and Lib Dem activists. He is now running a campaign almost exclusively warning of Tory cuts, and claiming that the party’s first tax cut would be for Britain’s richest millionaires. Brown also described the Tory manifesto as a ‘horror show’, flagging up their plans on inheritance tax, public services and the deficit, adding: ‘I say the Conservative party is not fit for government if it has policies like that.'” As I said a few

Sunday

2 May 2010

Peter Hoskin

A grim reminder of the Islamist threat?

Yesterday’s attempted car-bombing in Times Square doesn’t really tell us anything beyond that there are sociapaths willing to blow people up, and that sometimes luck – rather than judgement – foils their bloody plans. But, given the Pakistani Taliban’s claim that they were responsible for the attempt, it does serve as a grim reminder of the poison seeping out of that region. The question now, and for the next few months, is whether the West will somehow become more engaged inside Pakistan. It’s notable how British ministers have increasingly namechecked the country when justifying our presence in Afghanistan – but, still, it seems that the Taliban and other Islamist

Peter Hoskin

Cameron gets ready for government – but will he manage to avoid “frontline” cuts?

For the past few years, the Tory task has been to look like a government-in-waiting. Now, with the election only a matter of days away, David Cameron has dialled that process up to eleven. In interviews with the Sunday Times and Andrew Marr today, the Tory leader concentrates firmly on the nuts and bolts of government. The content of the Queen’s speech, the depth of Tory cuts, the possibility of coalition – all get name-checked and cross-referenced. There’s much in there to encourage Tory supporters. Indeed, CoffeeHousers have been clamouring for one of Cameron’s proposals: a “Great Repeal Act,” which would “scrap ID cards, home information packs and dozens of

Daniel Korski

Gordon Brown knows he is finished

Gordon Brown knows he is finished. My prediction is that he will not use his constitutional right to hang on if the Tories are the largest party in a hung parliament. OK, the Labour leader might try to stay in No 10 – for a second, maybe a minute, perhaps even an academic quarter, trying desperately to persuade a triumphant Nick Clegg that a Lib-Lab coalition is vital for Britain, and that the Tories are evil and must be resisted. But he will soon give up, throw down the phone in anger, shout at Stewart Wood, ask his colleagues to leave him alone and sit in the office alone for

Peter Hoskin

The Brownites still think they can win the election

So, back to the Labour leadership with Patrick Hennessy’s snappy article on the subject for the Sunday Telegraph. The main sweep of Hennessy’s piece is that Brown is likely to step down quickly in the event of defeat; that Harriet Harman could well fill the caretaker leader role; and that certain Dark Forces are moving to install David Miliband as party leader proper. The colour, though, lies in a couple of juicy snippets which are worth repeating here: “Last week, this newspaper has learnt, Lord Mandelson was overheard telling colleagues of his difficulties running the campaign when other figures – who could only be Miss Harman and her followers –

Peter Hoskin

Balls falling behind in the Labour leadership race

We are, in all likelihood, only days away from a full-blown, out-in-the-open Labour leadership contest. In which case, the odds that Ladbrokes have just fired out are worth a passing glance. Underneath the news that the Tories are now odds-on to form a majority government, they’ve got this list: Next permanent Labour leader David Miliband 7/4 Ed Miliband 5/1 Alan Johnson 6/1 Harriet Harman 8/1 Peter Mandelson 10/1 Alistair Darling 12/1 Ed Balls 14/1 Jon Cruddas 14/1 Jack Straw 25/1 John Denham 25/1 Andy Burnham 25/1 Hilary Benn 33/1 Yvette Cooper 33/1 The thing that strikes me is Ed Balls’s relatively low position – behind both Alistair Darling and Peter

Saturday

1 May 2010

Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 1 May 2010

One reason that Nick Clegg’s impact remains strong is the power of numbers. One reason that Nick Clegg’s impact remains strong is the power of numbers. At the last election, Labour retained office with an enormous overall majority, but only 9,562,122 votes. You have to go back to the era before women had the vote to find such a small backing for the party which won outright. Worse, you will never find such a low proportion of those entitled to vote producing the victor. Last time, only 22 per cent of the total electorate voted Labour. In 1992, the Conservatives got more than 14 million votes, and in 1997, Tony

The Spectator

Gordon the gaffer

It was always dangerous to let Gordon Brown near real voters. His election campaign has been constructed so that he meets as few as possible. Labour aides have been asked to pose as audiences. The Prime Minister has always been a backroom man: he is at his best with spreadsheets and opinions. He is easily irritated. Worse, he thinks that anyone who disagrees with him is either confused or malign. Now we know that he also regards his critics as ‘bigoted’. The accidental recording of his comments after meeting Gillian Duffy in Rochdale is far more damaging than John Major referring to the Eurosceptic ‘bastards’. Cameras recorded the Prime Minister

The Spectator

No compromise

Next week’s election may well bring Conservatism to a crossroads. Next week’s election may well bring Conservatism to a crossroads. If David Cameron fails to secure a majority, he will have a choice: should he seek to enter a deal with the Liberal Democrats as the flailing Ted Heath tried (and failed) to do in February 1974? If so, would he agree to voting reform which could change the nature of our politics forever? Or would he carry on in a minority government until it is necessary to call the inevitable second election? The latter is the riskier path. It is also the only acceptable one. Much rot has been

Fraser Nelson

Cameron must avoid making deals with the Lib Dems

Even after the Gillian Duffy incident, tonight’s polls either point to a hung parliament or a gossamer Tory majority. So the prospect of a Con-LibDem alliance, being forged next weekend, remains all too real. In the leading article of this week’s Spectator, we urge Cameron to go it alone with a minority government – rather than enter into a pact, of any sort, with the LibDems. If Cameron fails to win a majority, he must form a minority government, do the best he can and then, when the time comes, ask the Queen for a dissolution of Parliament so he can ask the country for a majority. There are five

Peter Hoskin

The curtain starts to fall on Gordon Brown

There’s a strange fin de siècle air about Labour this weekend: a new appreciation that the forthcoming election marks either the end of their reign, or – at best – is the start of a different, diluted kind of power. There are still a few signs of life and struggle, sure. I mean, Gordon Brown’s interview with Jeremy Paxman last night was fairly proficient by his standards, if typically disingenuous. But, even then, the PM is struggling to move the conversation on from Gillian Duffy. In interview with the Telegraph today, he admits that he has “paid [a] heavy price” for his gaffe. That line forms the headline of the

Fraser Nelson

‘The manifesto is what we believe in, that is what matters’

As election day approaches, David Cameron talks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth about Tory principles, where his campaign went wrong, and what might happen if he doesn’t win To gauge how much trouble David Cameron is in, one need only check his smile. In the days when he enjoyed a seemingly impregnable lead over Labour, he appeared fretful and inactive. But when he meets The Spectator on a train to Southampton, he is wearing a grin. This can only mean one thing: he is, once again, fighting for his political life. The polls are no longer predicting a Tory victory but a hung parliament — and senior Conservatives wonder if

Ross Clark

What did Nick Clegg get up to at Cambridge?

I am not sure that I quite envy James Delingpole, cast as a teddy bear-carrying social climber in When Boris Met Dave, Channel 4’s drama-documentary about the future Tory leader’s time at Oxford. But I do feel a bit peeved that my generation is about to seize power and I can’t even claim a bit part. If Channel 4 were minded to delve into Nick Clegg’s time at Cambridge I wouldn’t even make that — for the simple reason that in the three years I spent there with him I failed even to hear of him. Failing to meet the man who this time next week may be power-broking the