Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Thursday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

US election: how did the polls get it so wrong?

18 min listen

The post–mortem has begun on the US election with the Democrats desperately trying to figure out what just happened. To make sense of the result, Katy Balls is joined by Kate Andrews and James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata. On the podcast they discuss: how an election that seemed to be on a knife–edge ended in a landslide; how the Democrats misjudged the issues that matter to their core voter coalition; how global election trends and the ‘incumbency problem’ played a part; and how the term ‘asymmetric realignment’ can describe the voting patterns we saw yesterday. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Steerpike Steerpike

Did 100 Labour activists scare off 400k Democrat voters?

Was it Labour wot lost it? It was less than a month ago, as Kamala Harris appeared to be riding high, that dozens of bright-eyed British Starmtroopers began descending on America. In a now-infamous LinkedIn post, Sofia Patel, Labour’s head of operations, urged others to join them in North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. ‘I have nearly 100 Labour party staff (current and former) going to the US in the next few weeks,’ she boasted. ‘Let’s show the Democrats how to win elections!’ Fast forward three weeks and we know what happened next. The Trump campaign reacted in its usually understated way, threatening lawsuits, firing off bombastic threats and channelling

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The interest rate cut is good news for Labour

The Bank of England has announced its rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, reducing the base rate from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. The decision, voted 8-1 by the Monetary Policy Committee, is the second rate cut to be announced by Threadneedle Street since the inflation crisis began. Markets were expecting a rate cut today, after the Bank held rates in September. The BoE has been clear that bringing down the base rate will be a slow and steady process, as the Committee continues to assess the impact of lower rates on the economy and potential inflationary effects. This ‘gradual approach’ was reconfirmed today in the MPC’s minutes,

Steerpike Steerpike

Mike Amesbury due in court as Reform eyes seat

It’s never too long before Labour’s woes are back in the news. Now suspended MP Mike Amesbury has been summonsed to court to face an assault charge – after some rather shocking CCTV footage emerged a fortnight ago. The video appears to show the then-Labour politician speaking to a man at the side of a road, before throwing a punch at his victim. It was later reported that the bust-up had been the culmination of an ongoing dispute over the temporary closure of the Sutton Weaver swing bridge, and that frustration over cuts to the winter fuel payment also came up before the alleged assault took place. Talk about fighting

Steerpike Steerpike

Will these celebs really leave the US over Trump?

Despite receiving the backing of a whole host of A-listers, including Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris still managed to lose the 2024 US election. Donald Trump will soon return to the White House – but he may not be the only one preparing a big move. Over the course of the campaign, a number of top celebs claimed they would up and leave the States if Trump emerged victorious, while film star George Clooney even affirmed he would ‘get out of politics and go back to television’ if The Donald got in. So who might be considering a change of scene, and will they go through with

Simon Cook Simon Cook

Did lockdown make children overweight?

Every year, the government weighs and measures children in Reception (ages 4-5) and Year 6 (ages 10-11). The National Child Measurement Programme isn’t always popular with parents but it gives us priceless public health information on hundreds of thousands of children. With such a robust data set, it gives us the ability to look at how children change over time and test some of the theories that get thrown around about childhood growth and obesity. During the summer, a report from the Food Foundation claimed that the average height of five year olds was falling and had been since 2013. Gordon Brown thundered that this was down to ‘food bank Britain’ and

Steerpike Steerpike

Downing Street’s Diwali debacle

Twelve months ago, it was Rishi Sunak who was lighting a candle outside No. 10. So with a new regime installed in office, Mr S wondered how Keir Starmer would go about marking the Hindu festival. Sadly it seems that Starmer’s reverse Midas touch has struck again. For Steerpike hears that last week’s big bash in Downing Street proved something of a disappointment, with attendees complaining of menu choices not quite befitting Diwali’s normal traditions… Mr S would remind readers that strict observers of Diwali – the Hindu ‘festival of lights’ – do not consume alcohol during the occasion, while the majority of Hindu communities will only eat vegetarian food.

Steerpike Steerpike

Labour minister refuses to deny Trump has ‘Nazi sympathies’

The US election has been and gone and Donald Trump emerged victorious, with the former president set to re-enter the White House. The government sent Pat McFadden onto the airwaves today to field questions about the new president-elect – but the Labour MP became rather curiously tongue-tied on the matter of Trump’s politics… Quizzed by LBC’s Nick Ferrari this morning, McFadden was asked whether he believes Trump has ‘KKK sympathies or Nazi sympathies’.  PM: I think the relationship between Britain and America is really important and I’m confident… NF: That wasn’t the question though was it, Pat? PM: No I know. I don’t want to get into… NF: So you

Constantin Eckner

Germany’s traffic-light coalition was doomed from the start

Germany’s ruling traffic-light coalition – which has looked shaky since it was formed three years ago – has finally collapsed. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he had no trust in his finance minister Christian Lindner, who leads the Free Democrats. Scholz’s decision to act against Lindner follows months of disagreements between Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democrats and the Greens over budget policy and the country’s economic direction. A vote of confidence, which could pave the way for early elections, will take place early next year. As the ruling coalition has been busy tearing itself apart, Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been making headway, gaining support in several federal

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

What Marine Le Pen can learn from Donald Trump

The reaction of Marine Le Pen and her party to the stunning triumph of Donald Trump was curiously flat. Emmanuel Macron tweeted his congratulations to the 47th President of the United States early on Wednesday morning, an hour before there was any reaction from Le Pen, the woman who had once been proud to liken herself to a Gallic Trump. When it came, Le Pen’s message was tepid. She wished him ‘every success’, and added: ‘This new political era should contribute to the strengthening of bilateral relations and the pursuit of constructive dialogue and cooperation on the international stage.’ Le Pen has distanced herself from Trump for a while now Contrast

David Christopher Kaufman

I voted for Kamala Harris – but I’m not surprised she lost

In the end, I voted for Kamala Harris, but I always knew she was destined to lose. After all, if Harris was having trouble convincing me – a mixed-race gay Northern Californian – to get behind her, her chances were worrisomely slim. And the Harris campaign – rushed and reckless, relying on the same tired playbook that failed Hillary Clinton in 2016 – appears to have lost the vast American middle in spectacular fashion. Harris had plenty more to offer – if only she hadn’t been so afraid to let it loose The biggest problem for Harris is that she wasted every opportunity to make herself seem interesting. Here is

Daniel DePetris

What does Trump’s win mean for America’s allies – and its enemies?

When Donald Trump won his first-ever election in 2016, the world woke up the next morning in a collective state of shock and disbelief. Washington’s allies in Europe were caught completely unprepared; all of a sudden, they had to contend with a leader who relished needling them for all kinds of sins, real and perceived. America’s allies like Japan and South Korea, whose defence policies depend almost entirely on a stable alliance with the United States, were now forced to deal with a man who threatened to use those alliances as leverage to extract greater defence spending in Tokyo and Seoul. Latin America didn’t know what to believe, and frankly

Yascha Mounk

Reality check: why the Democrats lost

For the past decade, Donald Trump has been the most famous and influential man on the planet. But he had too many failures and electoral defeats to his name to be able to claim he dominated a whole political era. That changed on Tuesday night. Trump will be remembered as both the 45th and the 47th President of the United States. At the time of going to press, he is very likely to win full control of Congress. He is even likely to win the popular vote – making him the first Republican to do so in 20 years. All of this will allow him to impose his will on

The Spectator

What Britain can learn from Donald Trump’s victory

This has been the year of ejection elections. Across the democratic world, incumbents have been thrown out and insurgents have triumphed. And nowhere has the establishment been so humbled, the insurgency so resurgent, as in the US – still the world’s greatest democracy. For Democrats, it is mourning again in America. Just as in 2016, it is not just their candidate who has been defeated but their beliefs about their country. There are lessons for them, and for all political actors across the West, in Donald Trump’s victory. The failure of the Democrat campaign shows the folly of telling voters what they should think The Democrat campaign was premised on

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Trump’s victory, Kemi’s shadow cabinet and footballer killed by lightning

Home Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of the Conservative party, appointed a shadow cabinet. She made Robert Jenrick, whom she beat for the leadership, shadow justice secretary; Dame Priti Patel, shadow foreign secretary; Chris Philp, shadow home secretary; Mel Stride, shadow chancellor. Alex Burghart was given Northern Ireland and the Cabinet Office, with Laura Trott at education, Edward Argar at health and James Cartlidge at defence. Badenoch had been elected leader by 56.5 per cent of the 95,194 members’ votes (compared with the 57.4 per cent for Liz Truss in 2022), in a turnout of 72.8 per cent (compared with the 82.2 per cent in 2022). The Pitt Rivers museum

Niall Ferguson

Not even close: how Trump confounded the pundits

It was supposed to be close. On the eve of election day, Donald Trump was up just 0.1 per cent in the RealClearPolitics polling average. FiveThirtyEight projected a tiny Trump advantage. PredictIt had Kamala Harris ahead. A celebrated pollster ran 80,000 simulations, and Harris won 50.015 per cent of them, versus 49.985 per cent for Trump. And it made some sense to expect a close result. With the exception of Barack Obama’s victories, every US election since 2000 has been close. In two cases, 2000 and 2016, the winner didn’t win the popular vote, which before then hadn’t happened since 1888, when Benjamin Harrison beat Grover Cleveland. What makes American

Lionel Shriver Lionel Shriver

The real test for the republic

It’s always intimidating to write for a readership more clued up than you are. I file this on the very Tuesday the international commentariat have relentlessly claimed is the most consequential election day in American history. Now, in my ignorance, I suspect this superlative reflects the blinkered vanity of the present, and I’ve braved expressing my trust on the record that the country will ultimately survive either dismaying outcome. Yet only you know if an anti-climactic calm still prevails down thousands of American Main Streets; if, rather, the cities are aflame, armed militias reign, supermarket shelves are bare, and the US army is trying to decide which side to back;

Paul Wood

How Trump could temper tensions in the Middle East

One of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign ads was aimed at Jewish voters. Three stereotypical New York bubbes are kvetching about the state of the world. ‘Israel’s under attack. Anti-Semitism like I never thought I would see.’ One says: ‘Oy vey… You know Trump I never cared for, but at least he will keep us safe.’ This was a canny appeal, recognising that many American Jews were traditionally Democrats and would have to hold their noses to vote for Trump. But Trump has been – as he says himself – Israel’s ‘protector’ and Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was the first foreign leader to praise him for his victory: ‘Congratulations on

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Inside Kemi Badenoch’s first shadow cabinet

At her first shadow cabinet as Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch walked into the room and declared that there were ‘still too many people’. Various advisers hastily left. It was an indication of how she plans to do things differently. Even the invitation list for politicians has been slimmed down – the shadow attorney will not attend, and some roles have been axed, such as deputy leader. No ‘readout’ of discussion topics was emailed to hacks afterwards to update the lobby on what happened. Kemi Badenoch can start off her leadership by pitching herself ason the same side as rural voters The reason? Badenoch wants shadow cabinet meetings to be a

Wednesday

Matt McDonald

Kamala Harris finally concedes defeat

US Vice President Kamala Harris finally took the stage at her alma mater, Washington, DC’s Howard University – a day later than anticipated, to deliver a 12-minute concession speech. She walked out at 4:24 p.m. ET Wednesday, somewhat ironically, to the chorus of Beyoncé’s ‘Freedom’: Freedom, freedom, I can’t loseFreedom I can’t lose ‘The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for – but hear me when I say that the light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting’, Harris said. She added: ‘I am