Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

23 Apr 2010

Why Not Vote Lib Dem?

There is a terrible desperation about the Tory approach to the Lib Dem surge. There is a clear desire to find some sort of killer story about Nick Clegg or a killer strategy to reassert David Cameron’s claim to be the candidate of change. What is odd is that Cameron seems to have forgotten what made him so attractive in 2005, which was that he was the candidate of the moderate, progressive centre ground. The recession pushed the Conservative Party into the language of austerity – a message the British public is not yet ready to hear – and they have not recovered. I have never understood why David Cameron

Fraser Nelson

No, Gordon, this recession hasn’t been milder than others

Today’s new economic data gives a handy piece of ammo to the Conservatives. It is untrue that, as Gordon Brown says, this recession was somehow milder than others. The economy contracted by 6.3 percent this time – it was 3.8 percent in the 1980s recession and just 2.4 percent in the early 1990s recession. I feel confident that the Conservatives will get this point across clearly, next time that Brown boasts that this recession has been somehow milder, thanks to his decision to “intervene” (ie, double our national debt). The increase in unemployment has also been worse than the 1990s, but not quite as bad as the 1980s (perhaps because

Alex Massie

The Tories Latest Ad and the Problem with Dave’s Speeches

Well, again, over to you chaps: what do you think of this one? Watching this and I’m afraid the unworthy thought occurs: David Cameron isn’t actually very good at delivering a speech. Perhaps that’s a little unfair. Better, maybe, to say that he’s not a natural orator. There is, in this campaign anyway, something missing. These clips are neither one thing nor another, neither a fireside chat nor a fully-trumpeted stemwinder. Instead, he falls somewhere in between and the result is oddly discordant – as though he aims for the full Lloyd George only to restrain himself for fear that it would sound and look ridiculous. The result is a

James Forsyth

Cameron’s low reward interview with Paxo

David Cameron is recording his interview with Jeremy Paxman at 5.15 today, it’ll air at 8.30. Cameron didn’t want to do this interview. Originally, Clegg was the only leader to agree to be interviewed by Paxman. But after the first debate, Brown said yes and the Tories decided that Cameron couldn’t be the only party leader not to do it. There is, of course, history between Paxman and Cameron. When Paxo interviewed Cameron during the 2005 leadership contest, Cameron turned the tables on Paxman spectacularly, attacking the whole Paxman school of interviewing. Cameron’s approach in 2005 was previewed by a very funny piece by Michael Gove in The Times which

Peter Hoskin

The nation’s Cabinet

Just to flag up an eyecatching poll from PoliticsHome, asking the public to pick the members of their ideal coalition government. Methodology and details here, and the results pasted below. Two things strike me: i) Alistair Darling once again proves he’s popular, which you wouldn’t necessarily expect of a Chancellor who has presided over a recession, and ii) Hilary Benn’s presence may well show that, so far as Brown’s government is concerned, keeping a low profile is a good way to get noticed. Anyway, here are the final choices: David Cameron – Prime Minister Vince Cable – Chancellor of the Exchequer Nick Clegg – Foreign Secretary Alistair Darling – Home

Peter Hoskin

Brown, behind the scenes

A neat election-time spot from the Guardian’s Haroon Siddique, who brings us the above photo of Brown’s speaking notes from the TV debate last night. Turns out – surprise, surprise – that the “two boys squabbling” line was prepared in advance. As were a few other clunkers that we thankfully didn’t hear. I mean: “You can phone a friend, you can ask the audience, you can go 50-50 with Nick.” Really?

Peter Hoskin

GDP grows by 0.2 percent in first quarter of 2010

Now we know: the official preliminary estimate says that GDP grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. So the double dip looks to have been averted (for now) – but not by much. The figure is at the low end of economists’ estimates and lower than the growth experienced in the final quarter of 2009. Labour, of course, will spin this as further proof that we can’t risk the recovery by voting for those dastardly Tories. And the Tories will say that it shows just how damaging Gordon Brown has been for our economy. But I wonder whether voters will choose between the two messages, or

Peter Hoskin

The morning after the debate before

So, like last week: what’s changed? And, like last week, it’s probably too early to judge. The insta-polls may have Cameron and Clegg on level footing, but, really, we need to wait for voting intention polls before coming to any firm conclusions. As we saw the day after the first debate, they can work in quite surprising ways. My instinct, though, is that things will remain relatively steady. The Clegg surge of last week was, at root, a cry for change from the electorate – any change. So it will probably take more than a solid Cameron victory in one TV debate to have voters flooding back to the Tories.

Fraser Nelson

Cameron starts to pull the Tory campaign out of the fire

The headlines will be “score draw”, but I’d say Cameron won – and comfortably. I write this as someone who could have happily have sunk a few pins into a voodoo doll of David Cameron earlier on this evening – for taking the Conservatives (and Britain) to this appalling point where he may yet lose the election. But he raised his game, substantially. At best, he spoke with passion and authenticity. This time, he looked like he was fighting for his political life, which (of course) he is. Things are looking up. Here’s my participant-by-participant verdict: Brown Brown was his normal automaton self. He does tend to mangle his words,

Thursday

22 Apr 2010

James Forsyth

Cameron is much improved – but the Lib Dem bubble hasn’t burst

It seems that the general election of 2010 will turn on 90 minutes next Thursday. David Cameron was far better tonight than he was last week. This time he managed to bracket Brown and Clegg together and had the moment of the debate when he called Brown out on Labour’s leaflets claiming the Tories would scrap various things that pensioners currently get free. If there was a YouTube moment in the debate, it was that exchange when Brown said he didn’t authorise the leaflets making these claims. The Tory press team then delighted in pointing to a Labour party political broadcast where they had suggested the Tories would take away

Peter Hoskin

Has Brown blown it?

Gordon just can’t help himself, can he? There can’t be a simple dividing line – oh no. It has to be one built on exaggerations, half-truths and plain lies. So it has always been with his brand of government, and for much of the time – think cuts vs investment – it has worked in his favour. But tonight, despite a surprisingly punchy performance from the PM, it seems to have backfired dreadfully. The Tories are going big on those misleading Labour leaflets – and rightly so. Brown denied that he authorised them. But the fact that a Labour party political broadcast made similar claims about the Tories and old-age

Alex Massie

A Narrow Victory for Gordon Brown

First things first: SKY lost. A debate that was supposed to be about foreign policy scarcely touched on many of the bigger, more interesting issues in the world. Nothing about China, Russia, Iran, Islam, Israel-Palestine, Africa, terrorism, etc etc. The ability of a British government to influence some of the issues arising in these parts of the world may be limited but it would be interesting, nevertheless, to hear what the leaders had to say about them. Instead there was europe, nuclear weapons and a brief detour into Afghanistan to allow the leaders to dust-off their favourite Afghan anecdotes (jogging! Mechanics!). Despite that serious limitation it was another surprisingly entertaining

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s evening – as he and Brown fight back against the Clegg surge

Well, one thing was clear: Brown and Cameron have both been at the textbooks, staying behind for extra classes, and learning the lessons of last week. They came into this TV debate prepared. Not just for the very fact of Nick Clegg, but with strategies and soundbites to slow his advance. The result was a more passionate and confrontational show than I expected. Brown was the biggest surprise on the night. Sure, you have to apply the usual caveats and parameters: he is Gordon Brown, and being disingenuous and deluded is what he does. But, all that considered, he was uncharacteristically sprightly, I thought. His little prepared quips were half-way

James Forsyth

Does Clegg go for a Love Actually moment?

The foreign policy portion of tonight’s debate offers Nick Clegg several opportunities to bracket Labour and the Tories together. Both of them supported the war in Iraq, both won’t take the military option off the table when it comes to Iran and both believe in the centrality of the alliance with the US to UK foreign policy. On this final point, it’ll be fascinating to see if Clegg launches a full-on assault on the view that the America alliance is the cornerstone of UK foreign policy. He sketched out the arguments against thinking about the special relationship in a speech the other day and there’s no doubt he could

Alex Massie

Will Cleggcapping Work?

Well, yes, it probably will have some effect. But as Jonathan Freedland argues Clegg may survive the press’s assault with his dignity and credibility more or less intact. Indeed, the entire episode might have the effect of firming up some support for Clegg. There willl be some voters who see it as proof that the Liberals must be doing something right and others who feel that it will be worth endorsing Clegg just to spite everyone else. It occurs to me that the Liberal Democrat surge is not quite unprecedented. That is, it can reasonably be compared, in some respects at least, to the SNP’s campaign during the Scottish parliamentary

James Forsyth

Pre-debate poll boost for the Tories

This poll is going to be rapidly overtaken by events, but tonight’s YouGov tracker has the Tories up one to 34, Labour up two to 29 and the Lib Dems down three to 28. We’ll have at least two instant post-debate polls tonight so we’ll have a good idea of who, if anyone, is going to get a boost from tonight’s poll before we go to bed. But this debate is expected to have a far smaller audience than last week’s so might not have quite the same impact. Although, I hear the Sky questions will aim to put the party leaders’ on the spot more than those last week

James Forsyth

Tonight’s tactical battle

If seven days ago, anyone had suggested that the first debate would propel Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems to the top of the polls we’d all have thought that their lunch had gone on rather too long. But that’s what happened. Tonight, the questions are whether Gordon Brown reprises his ‘I agree with Nick’ routine or tries to check Clegg’s momentum and whether Cameron can turn in the kind of performance that begins to turn things round for him. Cameron shouldn’t be angry tonight. But he does need to bracket Brown and Clegg together at every opportunity. When three people are debating, the person who does the best

Peter Hoskin

People loathe politicians – but do they loathe the political media too?

One thing’s for certain: the Lib Dems are coming in for greater scrutiny and attention from the media. The covers of the Telegraph, Sun, Mail, Express and, yes, The Spectator are testament to that – even if some are less substantial than others. But the question is: will this derail the Clegg bandwagon? And, like Iain Dale, I’m not so sure. Iain’s point is that some of the coverage is so spiteful that it will “serve to increase his popularity and position in the polls”. He adds that this would be a “sure sign that the power of the press to influence an election is on the wane”. He’s right,

Ed Howker

Paul Rowen and the anatomy of a Lib Dem expenses scam

Now the Lib Dems are riding high in the polls, they attract greater scrutiny – which, to put it mildly, they do not always stand up to. In this week’s Spectator, we look at what can be seen as the Lib Dem vice. They may not charge for duck houses, or mortgages. But they do specialise in taking money intended for MPs expenses, and finding “innovative” ways of putting it into their war chest. Here is a hard example that may interest CoffeeHousers and it stars Paul Rowen, whom Mr Clegg visited last week – and declared “has done a great job”. He certainly has: for filling the Lib Dem

Daniel Korski

Is Europe a Con-Lib deal-breaker?

Europe is likely to play a big role in tonight’s debate. It is probably the one issue that divides the Liberal Democrats and the Tories as much as electoral reform. Nick Clegg, a former MEP and adviser to then-EU Commissioner Leon Brittan, is a euro-enthusiast who would like Britain to join the Euro, even if it takes time. David Cameron is a euro-skeptic (though not, to the chagrin of many CoffeHouse readers, obsessed about the issue). But neither wants a confrontation with the EU and other European governments over the next four years – and the Liberal Democrats have become quieter over time about their pro-EU tendencies. Their support