Politics Archives

Friday

8 Jan 2010

Brown’s only strength is the weakness of his rivals

So who got what? Today’s Times has a great summary of the concessions and promises that Brown has had to make to keep his Cabinet colleagues on side, including: “In a series of negotiations: — Harriet Harman demanded and received a promise to have more day-to-day control over the election campaign. Labour’s deputy leader also demanded to be treated with more respect from Mr Brown’s staff. — Jack Straw told Mr Brown that he must not rely solely on a “core vote” strategy aimed at shoring up Labour’s heartland support. — Alistair Darling urged the Prime Minister to be more honest about the cuts in public spending needed to pay

Daniel Korski

In preparing for war, the Tories differ from Labour in one respect – they would be prepared

In today’s Times, and on the occasion of George Osborne and William Hague’s visit to Helmand, the Tories are publishing proposals for how to improve the Government’s approach to post-conflict operations. Their central idea: to create a stabilisation force in the military, complete with the necessary expertise, training and so on to win the peace after combat. If it was not already abundantly clear, the Iraq Inquiry has shown how ill-prepared the British state – civil service, military and government – was for post-combat reconstruction. Though much has changed since the Iraq War – e.g. a dedicated department, the Stabilisation Unit, has been set up in Whitehall, and General David

Thursday

7 Jan 2010

Daniel Korski

Cancel the London Afghanistan Conference

In a few weeks time, a slew of foreign ministers will descend on London to attend a conference on Afghanistan. No.10 will use the event to sell Gordon Brown as a statesman, confidently dealing with the nation’s threats. The Conservatives, in turn, will probably try to score the usual points about Britain’s failure, alongside its NATO allies, to make any in-roads in the fight against the Taliban. Together with Tony Blair’s evidence to the Iraq Inquiry, the conference may create one of the few moments in the drawn-out election campaign when the three party leaders stop talking about the NHS and focus on national security issues instead. Too bad, then,

James Forsyth

The plot’s gunpowder is extinguished

The atmosphere is flat in Westminster today. The plot finally fizzled out this morning but not before having highlighted how little support in the Cabinet Brown has. It was telling that it was Shaun Woodward, not anyone more high profile, who turned up on the Today Programme to defend the PM. Plots that wound but do not kill Brown are perfect for the Tories. They make the voters see Labour as divided and add to the mood that it is time for a change. This one also had the benefit of being ideally timed from a Tory perspective, obscuring a week which had seen Cameron make a rare blunder. YouGov’s

Peter Hoskin

Compare and contrast | 7 January 2010

After June’s rebellion, it’s thought that Brown made a promise to his Cabinet colleagues: “…that cabinet ministers such as Alistair Darling will not again find themselves briefed against. There was deep anger in cabinet when Darling found himself being referred to in the past tense by Brown earlier in the week.” But in today’s Guardian: “The Downing Street spin machine knew something bad was afoot on Tuesday, but did not know precisely what was coming. So like any good media management operation, they tried to flush out enemies by briefing that Tessa Jowell, the Cabinet Office minister, was set to quit.” If I were Jowell – and if that’s what

Peter Hoskin

Brown has survived, for the moment

Whatever took place yesterday – and there was certainly more to this plot than met the eye – the immediate danger to Gordon Brown seems to have fizzled out this morning. Here’s what David Miliband has just told the cameras: “No member of the government was involved in the letter – we are all determined to win the election under Gordon’s leadership.” Which is a good deal less ambiguous than the message he put out yesterday. Now, there are two ways of looking at all this. First, that there’s enough Cabinet disatisfaction with Brown that another coup attempt has to be on the cards; that the revelations we’ve heard

James Forsyth

Brown weakened by friend who became foe

Intriguing post from Iain Martin, who is well sourced in the Darling camp, about what might have been said between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor yesterday: “I’ve heard from two Labour sources now that the conversation was very difficult and that Darling raised the possibility of Brown going, but the PM resisted. It would be taking it too far, says a well-placed MP, to say that the mild-mannered Darling told his old friend turned foe to call it a day. He said it was more that Darling floated the possibility of a swift departure for the sake of the party.” Whatever was said between the two men yesterday, the

Peter Hoskin

So what now for Brown?

Well done, Gordon. You seem to have survived another attempted coup. And not just any old coup, either. This one may have been particularly badly organised and executed, but it was also – probably – the last one you’ll face between now and the election; the last one you’ll ever face in your political career. If yesterday came with a sense of “now or never,” then the tea leaves now read “never”. Bravo. But, hang on. This is hardly good news for our PM. His authority is, pretty obviously, diminished. If Hoon and Hewitt didn’t manage to achieve that by themselves, then the ambiguous support from his Cabinet colleagues did

Alex Massie

Labour’s Useless Plotters Should Watch The Wire for Guidance

What a day! I mean, we’ve two feet of snow here and are running low on vital provisions (tobacco and whisky) and one of the chickens went missing and is feared lost in a snowdrift. A shame, since she’s a reliable layer. Meanwhile at Westminster, a pair of clowns armed with plastic spoons tried to knife the Prime Minister. Tweedle-Who? and Tweedle-Hoon concocted a plot so comically useless that it seems possible that the only question is whether it will be remembered for its stupidity or its ineptitude. Now of course it ain’t over yet (as James reminds us) but as of this writing it looks as though, yet again,

Wednesday

6 Jan 2010

James Forsyth

This isn’t over until David Miliband offers clear support to Brown

David Miliband has learned a lot since last June. Then, he was bounced by Peter Mandelson into declaring his support for Brown within an hour or so of James Purnell’s resignation. Today, he waited hours to release a statement and then when he did it could hardly have been less supportive. Tonight when challenged by TV crews outside his home, he said with a straight face that his position is ‘entirely clear’ when it is anything but. Until he comes out unequivocally for Brown this ain’t over. The other news of the night is Eric Joyce’s claim that two Cabinet ministers had told Hoon and Hewitt they would resign and back

James Forsyth

David Miliband barely offers Brown support

On a day where statements of support for the Prime Minister from key Cabinet colleagues have been notable for how lukewarm they ware, David Miliband’s takes the biscuit: It is hard to see how this could be a weaker statement of support. There is no word of praise for Brown, no claim that he is best man for the job, just a declaration that he backs Labour’s re-election. If I was one of Brown’s henchmen, I would feel far from reassured by it.

Fraser Nelson

Losing the plot | 6 January 2010

There are German operas that lasted longer than today’s Hoon-Hewitt plot. Launched at 12.45pm, given legs by the fact that ministers hate Brown too much to interrupt their lunches for him. But dead by 6pm due to Mandelson texting Nick Robinson. (Again, you can’t fault Mandy for drama). You feel the Tories should take Labour mps on a Regicide for Beginners away-day and teach them the basics. You need five or six people to declare hour-by-hour. You need basic co-ordination. You need timing (i.e. not a week when cameron is scoring so many own goals and the Tory lead is narrowing). Basic stuff. This is, in what is a fairly

Lloyd Evans

An intriguing PMQs – overshadowed by events

After the hubbub about Hewitt ‘n’ Hoon’s plot to unseat Gordon Brown, PMQs is perhaps a distant memory. It’s certainly made my review a little later than usual. But better late than never, as today’s clash was a bloody and intriguing contest with both party leaders on combative form. Cameron seemed unusually relaxed, glib and self-confident. Perhaps he’d been tipped off about the plot. Or perhaps he’d been thrilled by the sight of his beautifully groomed coiffure in the bathroom mirror this morning. If he spent as much time on his manifesto as he did on his hair there’d be no talk of a hung parliament. But this didn’t seem

James Forsyth

What we have learnt today

Three things stand out to me from today. First of all there is little Cabinet love for Brown: there was no stampede of Ministers rushing out to offer their support to him and several have yet to say anything. Also many of the statements of support contained precious little enthusiasm for Brown. The second thing is that you can’t bring down a Labour leader without support from the bulk of the Parliamentary party. This plot is simply too narrowly constructed. Finally, the Tory reaction has been intriguing. On the one hand they are delighted. They know that the electorate hates divided parties. They are also aware that it covers up

Peter Hoskin

What are Hoon and Hewitt hoping to achieve?

The secret ballot story is still ongoing – so it’s a little early to be drawing conclusions just yet. But, for now, it’s worth thinking about what H&H are hoping to achieve by all this. If it’s true that they haven’t discussed their plans with Cabinet ministers, then why are they sticking their heads above the parapet? It’s not as though they’re the most widely popular members of the Labour backbenches, who could manage to influence huge swathes of the PLP. Without a mass of pre-existing support, they surely can’t have much hope of getting the ballot they’ve called for. Which just throws up more questions. Should we simply take

James Forsyth

Mandelson’s statement scarcely endorses Brown

Peter Mandelson’s much-awaited statement does not seem particularly full-throated in its support of the Prime Minister. ‘No one should over-react to this initiative. It is not led by members of the government. No one has resigned from the government. The prime minister continues to have the support of his colleagues and we should carry on government business as usual.’ There is no praise for Brown and it almost reads as if someone did resign we would be into a totally different ball game.

Peter Hoskin

Mandelson intervenes

Is this the endorsement that Brown was looking for? Sky and the BBC report that the Business Secretary is putting out the message that the PM has the support of his Cabinet colleagues. Meanwhile, the good folk at Comment Central are running a Cabinet Watch, tracking which members of the Cabinet have come out in support of Brown. Only three, so far – although they haven’t added Mandelson yet (or Ed Balls, who is currently on Sky talking about “getting on with the job”). All eyes on Darling, Johnson, Harman and Miliband now.

Martin Bright

It Really is Now or Never this Time

As Ben Brogan has pointed out, if the GH/PH plot was not conceived with the say-so of Peter Mandelson (or at least the nod) then it won’t be going anywhere. At the same time, if Mandy tells Gordon that he must agree to the secret ballot then he will find ot very difficult to resist. But this really is the crunch time for the Labour Party. If it wants to avoid a decade of wilderness it needs to nail this issue once and for all. The point is that David Cameron knows that the Prime Minister is his greatest electoral asset and without him all bets are off. It has

James Forsyth

The plot is on life support

The Hoon and Hewitt attempt to force a secret ballot on Brown’s leadership is not off to the best of starts. If it is not dead on arrival it is certainly on the critical list. Even those who think Labour would be better off without Brown are unimpressed by this attempt. One texted me just now saying ‘outcome same as previous crap attempts: no change at top but shave 5% in polls.’ Certainly, the timing seems poor. Trying to compete with the snow is not the best idea nor is launching this campaign at a time when Labour had managed to score some points against the Tories.

James Forsyth

A narrowly constructed plot

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt’s letter calling for a secret ballot on the Labour leadership has wiped out a decent performance by Gordon Brown at PMQs and will revive stories about Labour division and Brown’s unpopularity. It is a massive bonus for the Tories in what had been a disappointing week for them up to now. Hewitt is definitely a Blairite but Hoon is one of those who crossed over to the Brown side while Blair was still PM. However he is a disappointed man, he hoped for the Europe job that Baroness Ashton got to everyone’s surprise. If Brown is to be ousted, though, I doubt it will be