Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Fraser Nelson

Debt, debt and more debt

So this was the Recession Budget surprise: a seven-year horizon with no debt repayment plan. Ha! Bet you didn’t expect that. Britain is to be transformed from a low-debt country into a nation saddled with a wartime debt without having fought a war. And as for today’s Brownie – it’s one the Stern Review used: fake juxtaposition. Brown presents the splurge (or splutter: £9.2bn this year, £16.3bn next) on one hand. And on the other, tax rises for the rich. He wants newspapers to write that one somehow cancels out the other. But it doesn’t: he has no plans to fund his extra spending. He’ll just keep borrowing. Debt will

Fraser Nelson

Weasel No.1: turning the VAT cut into a tax rise

Okay, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but I suspect I’ve spotted the first tax con of the budget – because there is a way Brown can turn the VAT cut into a tax rise for small businesses. He may find it too alluring to resist. Small firms and sole traders must charge VAT to their customers at 17.5%, but if their turnover is below a certain threshold they pay their VAT to HMRC at a flat rate of, say, 12.5%. They keep the difference, 5%, on which they’d pay corporation tax.  Now, if the VAT rate falls to 15%, will the flat rate they must pay to HMRC

Value for money?

With recession tightening its grip, the taxpaying public are more concerned than ever about the size of the tax burden, the efficiency of public services and getting value for money from the state. It is for that reason that the TaxPayers’ Alliance has published the third annual Public Sector Rich List, which provides a full run-down of the 387 public sector employees from 140 different organisations whose total remuneration in 2007-08 was above £150,000. With ordinary people footing the bill not only for these individuals’ large salaries, hefty bonuses and generous pensions, but also for the services and organisations they run, the list provides a crucial opportunity for taxpayers to

Fraser Nelson

Join us in catching the pre-Budget weasels

The Great Budget Game starts at 4.30pm today. Darling will have delivered his speech; copies of the report will have been sent out; and journalists across the land will be rushing to write it all up. With the post-Budget briefing finishing at 5pm and news desks shouting for copy from 6.30pm onwards, that leaves very little time for scrutiny. So you write like mad. To come up with respectable-looking edition is a miracle in itself. But the less time journalists have, the more room there is for Brown to manipulate the message. As we wait for Darling at 3.30pm, I thought I’d give you my take on the battle for

Fraser Nelson

Labour planning new 45p top rate of tax

The latest rumour is that Brown will pay for his VAT cut with a delayed 45% rate of tax for those on £175,000 and over. So off the radar has this move been that (unlike a VAT cut) it’s not even in HM Treasury’s ready reckoner. Enough is now know about tax economics at these salary levels to establish that raising the top rate results is a false god – the super-rich don’t hang around to be taxed. That’s why top tax levels have been falling worldwide to compete for the high earners. France has cut its top rate from 48% in 2003 to 40% now. So “tax the rich”

Fraser Nelson

Brown is blasting out his false message

Whatever you may think about Gordon Brown, he does deserve to be recognised as a master of his art. I can’t think of a more accomplished confidence trickster ever to enter Westminster.  And he’s ready to unveil a whole Potemkin Village tomorrow, the climax of his life’s work. It will be built out of non-sequiteurs, exaggerations, half-truths and Brownies. His interview on the BBC1 Politics Show gave a preview as to how he will conduct himself. He is in full election mode, talking as if he’s in the heat of an election campaign—which, in his head, he is. Here’s my take:- 2)    “That has now spread to become not just

Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 22 November 2008

‘A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman’s famous “helicopter drop” of money.’ So said Ben Bernanke, now the chairman of the Fed, in a speech about how to ward off the ‘extremely small’ chance of deflation, which he delivered in 2002. ‘A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman’s famous “helicopter drop” of money.’ So said Ben Bernanke, now the chairman of the Fed, in a speech about how to ward off the ‘extremely small’ chance of deflation, which he delivered in 2002. Today, deflation looms, and Gordon Brown seems to want ‘money-financed’ (i.e. paid for by printing money) tax cuts. The Conservatives have responded

Fraser Nelson

Reykjavik on Thames

Is Britain going the same way as Iceland? Iain Dale says that my reference in my political column to senior economists referring to London as “Reykjavik on Thames” is “terrifying, if true.” Cheeky wee monkey. ‘Course it’s true. The phrase I can attribute directly to Willem Buiter, one of Brown’s first appointments to the MPC and a pro-Euro enthusiast (but that doesn’t make him bad and wrong). He makes the Iceland case, and coins the phrase, in this rather technical but sobering FT blog post. Now you could argue he’s just one maverick. But I’d make three points in defence. 1) Buiter was denounced as a maverick when he said

Fraser Nelson

Politics | 22 November 2008

Given that Gordon Brown spent his adult life plotting to get into 10 Downing Street, he has been understandably quiet about his decision to leave it. Tony Blair’s old office certainly brought him rotten luck, and his new open-plan base in Number 12 has far better feng shui for a man of his disposition. There he sits as the leader of the gang, within stapler-hurling distance of about a dozen aides. It looks and feels like a general election campaign headquarters, the environment in which, historically, Mr Brown has been at his happiest and most deadly. He is already at war. For the second time in his career momentum is

A child of our time

From the economic and psychological bedlam of the global downturn has emerged a particularly dangerous false dichotomy: namely, that there is somehow a choice for ministers over the next few years between economic reconstruction and the repair of Britain’s broken society, and that the government (whether Labour or Conservative) must prioritise the former at the expense of the latter. From the economic and psychological bedlam of the global downturn has emerged a particularly dangerous false dichotomy: namely, that there is somehow a choice for ministers over the next few years between economic reconstruction and the repair of Britain’s broken society, and that the government (whether Labour or Conservative) must prioritise

The week that was | 21 November 2008

Here are some of the posts made over the past week on Spectator.co.uk: The Spectator website is hosting an exclusive clip from the recently-discovered Agatha Christie tapes.  Click here to listen to it. Fraser Nelson says the world isn’t behind Gordon Brown, and suggests that the Tories shouldn’t let Brown provoke a split. James Forsyth wonders who is stoking the early election speculation, and speculates whether Peter Mandelson will end up a national treasure. Peter Hoskin asks whether the Tories should lie low, and Reports on David Cameron’s decision to ditch Labour spending plans. Stephen Pollard thanks his readers, as he moves on to pastures new. Melanie Phillips wonders which

Fraser Nelson

Brown’s admitted his mistake – but we let him get away with it for far too long

After months of dodging the question, Gordon Brown has finally admitted he was wrong to repeatedly claim that he’s abolished boom and bust. Jeremy Vine has just asked him on Radio Two if that was a mistake and he replied: “Yes. Of course politicians make mistakes and I’ve got to be honest that we’ve made mistakes.” This goes far beyond a soundbite, and in fact lies at the heart of the economic bomb that has just exploded. Brown, like Greenspan, thought we’d entered a new era of permanently low interest rates – and that just because inflation had been tamed, it meant we’d hit some kind of economic equilibrium. This

Alex Massie

Should Gordon Go Now?

By which I mean, natch, should El Gordo toddle off to Buckingham Palace and call for a general election next spring rather than hanging on until 2010. Danny Finkelstein says yes he should. I rather agree. Admittedly this agreement is to some extent predicated upon my dislike of Brown and the rest of his miserable, chiselling crew. (Smith, J being but the most alarming example of the breed). Consequently, the sooner the country has a chance to be rid of them, the better. Nonetheless, putting personal prejudices aside (and the downside of a Tory victory in the spring, of course, is that disappointment will arrive that muh sooner), there’s a

Fraser Nelson

The right reply

George Osborne needs your help, or at least we think he does. He will be spending this weekend hunting for lines for his all-important speech on Monday answering the Pre-Budget Report. Left to his own devices, he may be tempted to go all “responsible” saying “what’s important is that we get credit markets moving” or some other line that will mean nothing to the people watching at home. You the CoffeeHousers, though, can steer him in the right direction by helping write our wiki-rebuttal. It has to be stuff that Osborne can seriously use. Maximum 150 words and a bottle of Pol Roger for the best entry. The stakes are

Fraser Nelson

A taxing debate

Daniel Finkelstein has been fighting a heroic but rather lonely battle warning those of us on the right about the limitations of the tax-cutting message. He’s been on the lookout for what he wonderfully terms “punk tax-cutters” and he and I have an exchange of emails on the subject in this week’s magazine – read it here. He didn’t quite give me the savaging he did poor old Nick Clegg. But then again, I’m not for unfunded tax cuts. As far as I know, no Conservative is either. I’ve always seen this charge as an Aunt Sally. Gordon Brown surely qualifies as a punk-tax cutter given that he announced an

Fraser Nelson

Cameron <em>can </em>slow NHS spending

Most debates about what the Tories should do are split between what’s right, and what would go down well to win elections. I believe that strong parties start with the former, and work up a way of converting it to the latter. This is why I disagree with James. Refusing to match Labour on health spending in 2010/11 has indeed left the Tories open to the accusation – levelled against Michael Howard in 2005 – that they’ll shut schools and hospitals. James regards this as an unnecessary hostage to fortune. The Tories should no longer be afraid of this for three reasons. First, it’s a lie. Next, it is Labour

Fraser Nelson

A subdued exchange

It was a subdued David Cameron we saw in PMQs today, which is understandable after last week. He’ll need all the arrows he can get in George Osborne’s quiver next Monday. The aim is to make the economy a real issue, hence he went on case studies of businesses denied credit – details later released to journalists. So the aim wasn’t really to get on the lunchtime or evening news but to tee up a narrative for the press. We can expect build-up ahead of the PBR. Gordon Brown was also lower-key: he lost his cool last week over Baby P and paid dearly for it. So a fairly dull