Politics

Next Thursday, voters in the UK’s 12 European constituencies, 27 shire counties and seven unitary authorities will go to the polls in the most extraordinary circumstances. There is, as Martin Vander Weyer argues on page 25, no shortage of local issues to exercise us in the county council elections, just as the unratified Lisbon Treaty ought, in theory, to loom large in the European elections on 4 June. In practice, of course, this so-called ‘Super Thursday’ will be something altogether different: the first true snapshot of public fury at the MPs’ expenses scandal, and a measure of how deep that crisis really is. Labour is bracing itself for a punishment

This is one of the Big Questions. Nate Silver was one of the biggest winners in last year’s election and one is wary of suggesting that he’s got this question wrong. Nevertheless, I rather suspect that he may have. He suggests that, in 2012 at least, the GOP could, perhaps should, consider giving up on the hispanic vote. The argument is that Republican weakness amongst latino voters didn’t actually hurt the GOP all that much. That is, hispanic votes only make the difference in states that are trending Democratic anyway. Furthermore, there remains a path to 270 electoral college votes even if the Republicans concede Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Nadine Dorries is at the end of her tether: Does the DT [Daily Telegraph] have an agenda other than the desire to perform a public service? Why would they expose this fiasco at the start of an election campaign if the priority was not to destabilise the main political parties and to drive votes towards the minority parties? Really, this presumes that newspapers are vastly more cunning than tends to be the case. The Telegraph is motivated by something rather quaintly old-fashioned: a story. Like anything else in the paper this is designed to serve two ideas: make money and b) inform the public. Just occasionally (oh, happy day!), it’s

I once gave the Conservatives their biggest ever donation, yet I recently took the difficult decision to support Ukip for the European elections on 4 June. So I have been expelled from the Tory party. I am not an observant person but I do not seem to have been cut by anyone since then; rather the opposite. Goodness knows how many people, ranging from a vicar to a pensioner, have told me that they have voted, and will vote this time, Conservative in all national elections but Ukip in the European elections. Lord Tebbit, while carefully avoiding specifically recommending Ukip, which would have been a catastrophe for the Tories as

CoffeeHousers pick Frank Field as their choice to be the next Speaker. Fraser Nelson sets out the power of celebrity candidates, and is left unimpressed by Gordon Brown’s press conference. James Forsyth says that talent needs a seat, and wonders whether Vince Cable will be able to resist the tempation to run for the Speakership. Peter Hoskin thinks that Michael Martin’s resignation was a necessary first step, and sets out the Lumley effect. Toby Young believes an anti-sleaze party should contest 100 seats. Martin Bright reports on a collective sigh of relief. Clive Davis asks: where’s Al Pacino when we need him? Alex Massie says that Parliament should be a

Amidst the public riot over parliamentarians’ expenses, the story of Hazel Blears remains oddly fascinating. And story is the operative word, given that she appears to be the sole cabinet minister singled out for opprobrium despite the fact that several of her colleagues have enjoyed equally shady and profitable dealings with the Fees Office. Since she’s had the gall to criticise the Prime Minister you can see why Downing Street is Chipmunk Hunting, making it clear that her actions were “unacceptable” and all the rest of it. But if Blears is guilty – or guilty enough to be forced out of the cabinet – then surely Alastair Darling and Geoff

Danny Finkelstein’s column in the Times today is very interesting if, perhaps, also a little too neat. On the other hand, I kinda hope he’s right. Large centralised political parties were created because of the existence of the mass media. To make any political impact, an idea or an individual had to find a spot in the limited shelf space provided by the big media giants. This prompted individuals to organise themselves into tight, uniform groupings with a professional staff shaping their message for media outlets. As the mass media became stronger, so did whipping. From this relationship between the media and politicians arose our current form of closed politics.