Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown is blasting out his false message

Whatever you may think about Gordon Brown, he does deserve to be recognised as a master of his art. I can’t think of a more accomplished confidence trickster ever to enter Westminster.  And he’s ready to unveil a whole Potemkin Village tomorrow, the climax of his life’s work. It will be built out of non-sequiteurs, exaggerations, half-truths and Brownies. His interview on the BBC1 Politics Show gave a preview as to how he will conduct himself. He is in full election mode, talking as if he’s in the heat of an election campaign—which, in his head, he is. Here’s my take:- 2)    “That has now spread to become not just

Saturday

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 22 November 2008

‘A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman’s famous “helicopter drop” of money.’ So said Ben Bernanke, now the chairman of the Fed, in a speech about how to ward off the ‘extremely small’ chance of deflation, which he delivered in 2002. ‘A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman’s famous “helicopter drop” of money.’ So said Ben Bernanke, now the chairman of the Fed, in a speech about how to ward off the ‘extremely small’ chance of deflation, which he delivered in 2002. Today, deflation looms, and Gordon Brown seems to want ‘money-financed’ (i.e. paid for by printing money) tax cuts. The Conservatives have responded

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

VAT to be cut to 15 percent

It looks like Brown will cut VAT from 17.5% to 15% – the lowest the EU will allow. This would be the crux of Monday’s recession budget. The move costs £12.5bn and the idea would be to get retail sales moving, then jack up VAT later. The threat of the increase, of course, being the point of the stimulatory push. And put VAT back up to what? Robert Peston has speculated a 22.5% level. Crucially, it also seems the deficit will be £120 billion a year by 2010-11. The other bits and pieces include £5bn projected efficiency savings (but after the election, natch). The wee basic rate taxpayer rebate –

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Reykjavik on Thames

Is Britain going the same way as Iceland? Iain Dale says that my reference in my political column to senior economists referring to London as “Reykjavik on Thames” is “terrifying, if true.” Cheeky wee monkey. ‘Course it’s true. The phrase I can attribute directly to Willem Buiter, one of Brown’s first appointments to the MPC and a pro-Euro enthusiast (but that doesn’t make him bad and wrong). He makes the Iceland case, and coins the phrase, in this rather technical but sobering FT blog post. Now you could argue he’s just one maverick. But I’d make three points in defence. 1) Buiter was denounced as a maverick when he said

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Politics | 22 November 2008

Given that Gordon Brown spent his adult life plotting to get into 10 Downing Street, he has been understandably quiet about his decision to leave it. Tony Blair’s old office certainly brought him rotten luck, and his new open-plan base in Number 12 has far better feng shui for a man of his disposition. There he sits as the leader of the gang, within stapler-hurling distance of about a dozen aides. It looks and feels like a general election campaign headquarters, the environment in which, historically, Mr Brown has been at his happiest and most deadly. He is already at war. For the second time in his career momentum is

The Spectator

A child of our time

From the economic and psychological bedlam of the global downturn has emerged a particularly dangerous false dichotomy: namely, that there is somehow a choice for ministers over the next few years between economic reconstruction and the repair of Britain’s broken society, and that the government (whether Labour or Conservative) must prioritise the former at the expense of the latter. From the economic and psychological bedlam of the global downturn has emerged a particularly dangerous false dichotomy: namely, that there is somehow a choice for ministers over the next few years between economic reconstruction and the repair of Britain’s broken society, and that the government (whether Labour or Conservative) must prioritise

Friday

The Spectator

The week that was | 21 November 2008

Here are some of the posts made over the past week on Spectator.co.uk: The Spectator website is hosting an exclusive clip from the recently-discovered Agatha Christie tapes.  Click here to listen to it. Fraser Nelson says the world isn’t behind Gordon Brown, and suggests that the Tories shouldn’t let Brown provoke a split. James Forsyth wonders who is stoking the early election speculation, and speculates whether Peter Mandelson will end up a national treasure. Peter Hoskin asks whether the Tories should lie low, and Reports on David Cameron’s decision to ditch Labour spending plans. Stephen Pollard thanks his readers, as he moves on to pastures new. Melanie Phillips wonders which

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown’s admitted his mistake – but we let him get away with it for far too long

After months of dodging the question, Gordon Brown has finally admitted he was wrong to repeatedly claim that he’s abolished boom and bust. Jeremy Vine has just asked him on Radio Two if that was a mistake and he replied: “Yes. Of course politicians make mistakes and I’ve got to be honest that we’ve made mistakes.” This goes far beyond a soundbite, and in fact lies at the heart of the economic bomb that has just exploded. Brown, like Greenspan, thought we’d entered a new era of permanently low interest rates – and that just because inflation had been tamed, it meant we’d hit some kind of economic equilibrium. This

Thursday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Should Gordon Go Now?

By which I mean, natch, should El Gordo toddle off to Buckingham Palace and call for a general election next spring rather than hanging on until 2010. Danny Finkelstein says yes he should. I rather agree. Admittedly this agreement is to some extent predicated upon my dislike of Brown and the rest of his miserable, chiselling crew. (Smith, J being but the most alarming example of the breed). Consequently, the sooner the country has a chance to be rid of them, the better. Nonetheless, putting personal prejudices aside (and the downside of a Tory victory in the spring, of course, is that disappointment will arrive that muh sooner), there’s a

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The right reply

George Osborne needs your help, or at least we think he does. He will be spending this weekend hunting for lines for his all-important speech on Monday answering the Pre-Budget Report. Left to his own devices, he may be tempted to go all “responsible” saying “what’s important is that we get credit markets moving” or some other line that will mean nothing to the people watching at home. You the CoffeeHousers, though, can steer him in the right direction by helping write our wiki-rebuttal. It has to be stuff that Osborne can seriously use. Maximum 150 words and a bottle of Pol Roger for the best entry. The stakes are

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A taxing debate

Daniel Finkelstein has been fighting a heroic but rather lonely battle warning those of us on the right about the limitations of the tax-cutting message. He’s been on the lookout for what he wonderfully terms “punk tax-cutters” and he and I have an exchange of emails on the subject in this week’s magazine – read it here. He didn’t quite give me the savaging he did poor old Nick Clegg. But then again, I’m not for unfunded tax cuts. As far as I know, no Conservative is either. I’ve always seen this charge as an Aunt Sally. Gordon Brown surely qualifies as a punk-tax cutter given that he announced an

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron <em>can </em>slow NHS spending

Most debates about what the Tories should do are split between what’s right, and what would go down well to win elections. I believe that strong parties start with the former, and work up a way of converting it to the latter. This is why I disagree with James. Refusing to match Labour on health spending in 2010/11 has indeed left the Tories open to the accusation – levelled against Michael Howard in 2005 – that they’ll shut schools and hospitals. James regards this as an unnecessary hostage to fortune. The Tories should no longer be afraid of this for three reasons. First, it’s a lie. Next, it is Labour

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A subdued exchange

It was a subdued David Cameron we saw in PMQs today, which is understandable after last week. He’ll need all the arrows he can get in George Osborne’s quiver next Monday. The aim is to make the economy a real issue, hence he went on case studies of businesses denied credit – details later released to journalists. So the aim wasn’t really to get on the lunchtime or evening news but to tee up a narrative for the press. We can expect build-up ahead of the PBR. Gordon Brown was also lower-key: he lost his cool last week over Baby P and paid dearly for it. So a fairly dull

Peter Hoskin

Will Brown call an election in ‘1943’?

Weighing up the prospects of a snap election, Jonathan Freedland makes a pertinent point in today’s Guardian: “But what happens when the immediate mood of crisis passes, and voters ask whether Brown’s frenetic activity actually made any difference? If the answer is not much, he’ll be finished. Yet success might not help, either. Voters could decide that Brown had served his purpose and was no longer needed. Think 1945: it was because Winston Churchill had won the war that Britons felt free to boot him out. So Brown needs it to be 1943 for as long as possible. He needs voters to believe the crisis is ongoing, that we are

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Hillary’s Return?

Ewen MacAskill reports that Hillary is indeed going to be Obama’s Secretary of State. His report in the Guardian is entirely unsourced however – which is interesting because MacAskill is not a reckless reporter by any means. Even so, Josh Marshall says he doesn’t believe anything any British paper publishes about American politics. My old friend Toby Harnden has a theory explaining what could have happened: Maybe the almost complete lack of sourcing is a clue. When that happens, what’s usually going on is that a very senior person on the paper has been told something, is certain it’s true and directs that the story be written, without furnishing many

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Is Cameron ready to face down Brown’s “health cuts” claim?

Cameron’s announcement today grows more radical the more you study it. I was struck that he didn’t vow to protect health and education spending in 2010/11, as the party has in the past. In my “how to cut £40 billion” guide, my chief recommendation was freezing NHS spending to give the system time to digest the cash which Brown has force-fed it. Some chance, I thought – although it’s the best way to save money, Cameron wouldn’t have the cojones to face down the “health cuts” claim he’d get from Brown. But I seem to have underestimated him. He’s done an interview for Channel Four News, being broadcast at 7pm,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

It’s the positioning that matters

Yvette Cooper doesn’t like Cameron’s announcement that he’d spend less than the £680bn Brown intends to in 2010/11. “Unlike the Conservatives, we refuse to abandon people in tough times. The British economy needs a shot in the arm, not a slap in the face.” Except giving people their money back in tough times – as I suspect Cameron will do with the money he saves – is the very opposite of abandoning them. Does she not think the government will be tightening its belt, as all households in Britain are doing? This is what Gordon Brown would call the “wrong side of the argument”. Cameron is finally moving on to

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Tories shouldn’t let Brown provoke a split

Is the Tory right secretly gunning for Cameron? Rachel Sylvester today raises this prospect, and you can take as read this reflects thinking at a senior level within the Cameroons. This bodes ill and suggests someone is worrying that “the Wicked Tory Right are coming for Dave, that explains all the criticism of George, let’s fight them” rather than “we messed up, we have no clear message, let’s sort ourselves out and quickly.” Sure, there are grumbles in the corridors of Westminster but this is several places on the Richter scale away from a kill-the-leader rebellion.  I have detected absolutely no anti-Cameron sentiment, and the very idea of an alternative leader is laughable. So

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Game is the Game

My friend James Forsyth asks a daring question: “Will Peter Mandelson end up a National Treasure?” A crazy notion, you may feel, but not an impossible one! Now, of course, in many respects Mandeslon is a dreadful character, but whereas, say, Alastair Campbell is a mere thuggish bully, Mandelson is a subtler operator who enlivens, rather than demeans, the political game. I suspect the lobby is delighted that he’s back. Who could fail to be amused by the manner in which he smoked George Osbourne this summer, as though the Shadow Chancellor was but a kipper? This was Mandelson as his slimy, effortlessly loathsome best. There was something brilliant in