Politics

Will Gordon Brown’s stimulus serve only to suck in more immigrants? The Prime Minister should ask himself this as he visits the London Olympic 2012 site – it’s a classic example of the problem. Sure, there have been plenty of jobs created by the construction. But which English borough registered the biggest increase in National Insurance numbers to foreign nationals last year? Newham – where the site is based. A full 21,510 of them (Fig6, pdf) – and this is in a constituency where there are 32,800 working-aged people on benefits. As I argued in the News of the World last October, most of these have been claiming for five years or more.

If the Tories really didn’t want a third runway at Heathrow they should have called for one. That would have stopped Gordon Brown. He is only going ahead because he thinks it will draw a dividing line between the supposedly pro-business Labour and naïve tree-hugging Tories. And I confess that I started out being in favour of it, so fatuous were the environmental arguments against it. Farting cows produce more greenhouse gas than aircraft (or cars), as does rice production – and do we see Greenpeace activists campaigning outside Aberdeen Angus steakhouses or Chinese restaurants’? But the debacle over Terminal Five brought home to me a more important point. Britain

Gordon spent Christmas learning the catechism from Peter Mandelson. Today we heard the result. And it sounded robotic. ‘Do nothing’ is his clockwork description of the Tories. ‘Real help’ is the mantra for Labour. The first question at PMQs came from a government stooge asking about loan guarantees. Gordon stood up and re-announced his scheme to underwrite £10 billion worth of business debts. ‘Real help’ he said. Again and again. I lost count after the fifth repetition. Cameron responded by departing from his script. ‘Planted question, copied policy.’ This was his best moment. A powerful point succinctly made and he seemed justifiably pleased that the government has adopted a measure

Now that Brown has copied the Tory proposal to underwrite bank loans, what’s the real picture on interest rates? Since the UK debt crisis started, the Bank of England base rates have become woefully detached from the rates charged to real people. This is powerfully summarised by three graphs from Citi, which I reprint here.. Over last year, BoE base rates fell by three points. Only half of this fall was “passed on” by fixed-rate and variable mortgages, while the cost of borrowing money actually rose for overdrafts, credit cards and personal loans. As the graph shows: The most misery will be felt by those who have unsecured personal loans

More defections from Tory HQ: Natalie Kirby, Cameron’s assistant head of media, is off to run the press at….. McDonald’s UK. Before Coffee Housers snigger, I’d like to point out that McDonald’s corporate debt has a lower risk rating than UK government bonds, so the markets are in no doubt about which is the dodgier institution. I’m not joking: McDonald’s has a credit default swap rating of about 70 while the UK government’s is about 100. This means that the market genuinely thinks that quarter-pounders are a safer bet than pounds. Cameron will argue that as companies prepare for a change of government, its inevitable that Tory staff will be

Ed Balls never gets enough credit for the Brownies that he cooks up. One was served today, when he spent an interview with the Beeb denouncing those Tory plans to axe 220,000 apprenticeships. As he put it: “There is a choice for our country – a choice between a Government which says we must act to get through difficult times and the Conservatives, who on Monday announced cuts in public spending which would mean over 200,000 apprenticeships cut. In fact, it would mean almost no apprenticeships for young people at all.” Except there are no Tory plans to axe apprenticeships. Not one. It was concocted by Mr Balls, on the