Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Miliband far from Shermanesque in his denials

David Miliband was on Adam Boulton’s show today and described reports that he is manoeuvring for the leadership as ‘fiction’. But his denial of interest in challenging Brown left him plenty of wriggle room : “I am not in the market for any job other than the one I have at the moment.” If Miliband really wants to show that he is not signalling to Labour MPs that he would step in if other people would do the dirty work of getting rid of Brown then he needs to issue a Shermanesque statement. Sherman, a Union Civil War General, denied all interest in running for president in1884 with the statement

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Taliban’s changing tactics

Helmand Province, Afghanistan I have adopted the Gordon Brown strategy and disappeared after a bad by-election result for Labour. My excuse is that I’m now in Afghanistan, finding out how things are in Helmand. Afghanistan is an amazing country whose people combine abject poverty with the ability to endure weather of -20c in winter to 50c in summer. Such hardiness makes for resolute fighters, but it seems the Taliban have failed to recruit for this season. The poppy harvest ended three weeks ago, and the fighting usually starts immediately as the hired $10 Taliban” swap ploughshares for Kalashnikovs. Not this time, though. As one solider told me “the problem with

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Miliband on manoeuvres

The Sunday Times reports this morning that David Miliband is readying himself for a run at the leadership. A source close to Miliband tells the paper that “David is not going to do anything until a vacancy arises, but he is ready to go for it. There will be no public display from him in the next few weeks but he and his supporters will be making it clear to backbenchers that there is an alternative to Gordon.” Miliband’s plan reflects a phenomenal sense of entitlement. He plans to leave to his colleagues the grubby and difficult task of prising Brown from Number 10. He will then glide into the

Saturday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Campbell to Cherie: I never swore at your hairdresser

There is a classic letter from Alistair Campbell in The Times today disputing Cherie Blair’s account in her book of how Campbell swore at her hairdresser.   Sir, Before “you’re only a f***ing hairdresser” replaces “we don’t do God” as my most quoted remark, could I make clear that while I did say “we don’t do God” to an American magazine journalist, I have never described Andre Suard as “only a f***ing hairdresser” to anyone. There are other direct quotations attributed to me in your recent serialisation of Cherie Blair’s book which were not accurate, but this is the one I would like to deny, not least since it goes

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Miliband’s gift to McCain

John McCain and Barack Obama have been involved in a fierce back and forth about Obama’s willingness to meet with the Iranian leadership without preconditions. McCain claims that Obama’s willingness to do this shows that he does not have the judgement or the experience to be commander in chief, while Obama argues that McCain’s refusal to sit down with America’s enemies proves that McCain comes from the George W. Bush school of diplomacy. David Miliband has now waded into this debate. The Times reports that when Miliband met with Obama’s foreign policy team he queried the wisdom of Obama’s proposed approach. This is fantastic news for the McCain campaign who

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will Carter get Brown?

Gordon Brown has survived the first 30 hours after Crewe and Nantwich. In public, the cabinet has remained supportive and even among backbenchers those prepared to openly call for leadership contest are few and far between. Behind the scenes, though, things are different—just look at the string of anonymous quotes in today’s papers. But no one is yet prepared to be, in Martin Kettle’s phrase, ‘Labour’s Geoffrey Howe.’ One man to watch in all this is Stephen Carter, the man that Brown hired to create and market ‘new Gordon.’ If Carter were to walk it would be taken as proof that Brown is incapable of change and that Labour has

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Writing Labour off

Peter Riddell  is rightly regarded as the dean of the Parliamentary press corp. He is not a man prone to exaggeration or over-excitement which is what makes the conclusion to his column this morning so important: Ministers and MPs have to decide whether to continue with him, or to change leader again in the hope of reducing, if not preventing, electoral defeat. The combination of the May Day elections and Crewe and Nantwich has persuaded Westminster that the Tories will win the next election with an overall majority; the conversation has now shifted to how Labour can minimise its loses. One wonders how much stomach the new hired hands at

Dan Hannan

Ireland’s EU referendum will be no walkover

Daniel Hannan says that the vote on the Lisbon Treaty is not in the bag for the ‘Yes’ camp, which has no argument to offer. Meanwhile, the ‘No’ campaign is gaining ground every day In Brussels, even the smuggest fonctionnaires are starting to look uneasy. After the French and Dutch ‘No’ votes of 2005, EU leaders determined that there should be no more plebiscites. But there was one vote they couldn’t cancel: Ireland’s national constitution requires referendums on any cession of sovereignty. And so, in three weeks’ time, three million Irish voters will cast proxy ballots for 500 million unconsulted Europeans, determining whether the EU gets the Lisbon Treaty, née

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Beneath the radar, the Tory party is working on a strategy to win by a landslide

These are bad times for Conservatives fighting the tightest marginal seats. About a year ago they were given generous resources to help them campaign, to promote their candidates and to rubbish Labour in general. Now, the cash is drying up. Unofficially, these target seats are being designated as ‘in the bag’ and the money instead is being diverted to constituencies that, pre-Cameron, were regarded as utterly unwinnable. No one in Conservative headquarters is calling it by its name — to do so would court the lethal charge of complacency — but what is being discreetly developed is nothing less than a landslide strategy. This explains the energy with which the

The Spectator

Here’s what we call progress

‘Progress prevails’: thus did the Guardian’s editorial on Wednesday celebrate the defeat of amendments to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill that would have reduced the upper limit of 24 weeks for abortion and ensured that IVF clinics would need at least to consider the need for ‘supportive parenting and a father or male role model’. The newspaper observed that ‘political incorrectness [had] threatened to run wild’ in the Commons but ‘the heartening outcome was that the progressives prevailed’. By what perverse definition can it be counted ‘progress’ that the law governing abortion has remained unchanged since 1990, despite dramatic changes both in neonatal care and scientific imaging? The argument

Mary Wakefield Mary Wakefield

Welcome to the United States of Amnesia

Gore Vidal tells Mary Wakefield that America has forgotten its constitutional roots, and explains why Bobby Kennedy was ‘the biggest son of a bitch in politics’ To kill time, as I wait for Gore Vidal by the reception desk in Claridge’s, I leaf through the pages of his memoirs, looking at the photographs. One in particular takes my fancy: Gore aged three, in the garden of his grandfather’s house in Washington DC — a dapper little chap in shorts and a smart round-collared shirt, tending what seem to be cabbages. He’s glancing up at the camera half-amused, entirely self-possessed. He’s so unusually composed for a toddler, that I squint at

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Brown Toastwatch

So, as expected, the Tories win the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Handsomely. The remarkable thing is that it took so long and that the Tory brand remained so toxic that this is the first by-election gain the party has enjoyed enjoyed since Labour came to power in 1997. In fact, it’s the Tories first bye-election gain since 1982. But all things must come to an end. Once the worm turns it stays turned. This, remember, is seat number 165 on the Tories’ list of target seats. A 17.6% swing is at the high end of Tory hopes. True, this result alone won’t topple Gordon Brown. He will limp on. Labour’s

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Labour want to limit the damage, then Alan Johnson is their best bet

One of the reasons that most pundits still think that Gordon Brown will survive is that there is no obvious alternative to him. Personally, I’m sceptical as to whether anyone could now deny the Tories an overall majority at the next election barring some unforeseen event; the public mood really does appear to have shifted decisively against Labour. However, I do think that Alan Johnson would keep the Tory majority down more effectively than anyone else. Johnson is the best communicator in the cabinet and has a natural rapport with the voters. His life story is attractive and he seems to understand the aspiring classes better than anyone else in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Has anyone seen this man?

Update: In the comments, Emily points to a BBC interview with Ed Balls that I missed. So, I owe Mr Balls an apology. However, I would be even more impressed if Balls went and did one of the big set-piece interviews this weekend.   One of the least appealing aspects of the Brownites is how they scarper at the first sign of trouble. So last night on Question Time we had Hazel Blears—who various Brownites were happy to brief was about to be dropped from the cabinet before the locals, on the BBC’s election night special the Labour representative was Chris Bryant who is only a PPS and was hopelessly outgunned by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Labour need ideas…

Clive points out that John Prescott is a late addition to the line-up at the Festival of Ideas in Bristol. Maybe, Prezza is going to reinvent himself as the new Labour philosopher.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Not so capital

Before we get back to discussing Crewe and Nantwich and what happens next, I’m going to have a little rant about London traffic and the price of taxis. This morning, I was doing in an interview near Marble Arch and then going to have lunch at half twelve with Clive Davis on Greek Street. The interview finished about 12:15 so to be sure I’d be on time, I decided to hail a cab. 25 minutes and £13.80 later, I arrived in Greek Street. Now, I’m not quire sure whether I’m more irritated by it taking 25 minutes to go 2.4 miles or that it cost me £5.75 per mile. It

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

No more need to worry about Labour’s long term plans

I am now in sunny Afghanistan, where we woke up to the Crewe result. This puts thing into a new perspective. It’s becoming rapidly clear that we need not worry about the many long-term plans of this government (abolish A-Levels, reform pensions, identity cards and the like). But what of the commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan once Labour is gone? Liam Fox has spoken of the need to either spend more or deploy less.  We’re still waiting to find which is to be the Tory answer.    

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What we know now

Here are a few things that I think we’ve learnt from last night’s result: 1). The Tories are now the best closers in British politics: In London, the local elections and last night the Tories did significantly better than the final opinion polls suggested they would. This suggests that the Tory ground game is now good enough to add a couple of points to their score. At the next election, this could make the difference between a slim and solid Tory majority. 2). ‘Tory hatred’ no longer moves votes: The Labour campaign desperately tried to whip up prejudice against a public school educated, lawyer who looked and sounded like a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?

Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely: “Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even – unlikely – if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?

If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing. A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would