Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Saturday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Writing Labour off

Peter Riddell  is rightly regarded as the dean of the Parliamentary press corp. He is not a man prone to exaggeration or over-excitement which is what makes the conclusion to his column this morning so important: Ministers and MPs have to decide whether to continue with him, or to change leader again in the hope of reducing, if not preventing, electoral defeat. The combination of the May Day elections and Crewe and Nantwich has persuaded Westminster that the Tories will win the next election with an overall majority; the conversation has now shifted to how Labour can minimise its loses. One wonders how much stomach the new hired hands at

Dan Hannan

Ireland’s EU referendum will be no walkover

Daniel Hannan says that the vote on the Lisbon Treaty is not in the bag for the ‘Yes’ camp, which has no argument to offer. Meanwhile, the ‘No’ campaign is gaining ground every day In Brussels, even the smuggest fonctionnaires are starting to look uneasy. After the French and Dutch ‘No’ votes of 2005, EU leaders determined that there should be no more plebiscites. But there was one vote they couldn’t cancel: Ireland’s national constitution requires referendums on any cession of sovereignty. And so, in three weeks’ time, three million Irish voters will cast proxy ballots for 500 million unconsulted Europeans, determining whether the EU gets the Lisbon Treaty, née

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Beneath the radar, the Tory party is working on a strategy to win by a landslide

These are bad times for Conservatives fighting the tightest marginal seats. About a year ago they were given generous resources to help them campaign, to promote their candidates and to rubbish Labour in general. Now, the cash is drying up. Unofficially, these target seats are being designated as ‘in the bag’ and the money instead is being diverted to constituencies that, pre-Cameron, were regarded as utterly unwinnable. No one in Conservative headquarters is calling it by its name — to do so would court the lethal charge of complacency — but what is being discreetly developed is nothing less than a landslide strategy. This explains the energy with which the

The Spectator

Here’s what we call progress

‘Progress prevails’: thus did the Guardian’s editorial on Wednesday celebrate the defeat of amendments to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill that would have reduced the upper limit of 24 weeks for abortion and ensured that IVF clinics would need at least to consider the need for ‘supportive parenting and a father or male role model’. The newspaper observed that ‘political incorrectness [had] threatened to run wild’ in the Commons but ‘the heartening outcome was that the progressives prevailed’. By what perverse definition can it be counted ‘progress’ that the law governing abortion has remained unchanged since 1990, despite dramatic changes both in neonatal care and scientific imaging? The argument

Mary Wakefield Mary Wakefield

Welcome to the United States of Amnesia

Gore Vidal tells Mary Wakefield that America has forgotten its constitutional roots, and explains why Bobby Kennedy was ‘the biggest son of a bitch in politics’ To kill time, as I wait for Gore Vidal by the reception desk in Claridge’s, I leaf through the pages of his memoirs, looking at the photographs. One in particular takes my fancy: Gore aged three, in the garden of his grandfather’s house in Washington DC — a dapper little chap in shorts and a smart round-collared shirt, tending what seem to be cabbages. He’s glancing up at the camera half-amused, entirely self-possessed. He’s so unusually composed for a toddler, that I squint at

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Brown Toastwatch

So, as expected, the Tories win the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Handsomely. The remarkable thing is that it took so long and that the Tory brand remained so toxic that this is the first by-election gain the party has enjoyed enjoyed since Labour came to power in 1997. In fact, it’s the Tories first bye-election gain since 1982. But all things must come to an end. Once the worm turns it stays turned. This, remember, is seat number 165 on the Tories’ list of target seats. A 17.6% swing is at the high end of Tory hopes. True, this result alone won’t topple Gordon Brown. He will limp on. Labour’s

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Labour want to limit the damage, then Alan Johnson is their best bet

One of the reasons that most pundits still think that Gordon Brown will survive is that there is no obvious alternative to him. Personally, I’m sceptical as to whether anyone could now deny the Tories an overall majority at the next election barring some unforeseen event; the public mood really does appear to have shifted decisively against Labour. However, I do think that Alan Johnson would keep the Tory majority down more effectively than anyone else. Johnson is the best communicator in the cabinet and has a natural rapport with the voters. His life story is attractive and he seems to understand the aspiring classes better than anyone else in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Has anyone seen this man?

Update: In the comments, Emily points to a BBC interview with Ed Balls that I missed. So, I owe Mr Balls an apology. However, I would be even more impressed if Balls went and did one of the big set-piece interviews this weekend.   One of the least appealing aspects of the Brownites is how they scarper at the first sign of trouble. So last night on Question Time we had Hazel Blears—who various Brownites were happy to brief was about to be dropped from the cabinet before the locals, on the BBC’s election night special the Labour representative was Chris Bryant who is only a PPS and was hopelessly outgunned by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Labour need ideas…

Clive points out that John Prescott is a late addition to the line-up at the Festival of Ideas in Bristol. Maybe, Prezza is going to reinvent himself as the new Labour philosopher.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Not so capital

Before we get back to discussing Crewe and Nantwich and what happens next, I’m going to have a little rant about London traffic and the price of taxis. This morning, I was doing in an interview near Marble Arch and then going to have lunch at half twelve with Clive Davis on Greek Street. The interview finished about 12:15 so to be sure I’d be on time, I decided to hail a cab. 25 minutes and £13.80 later, I arrived in Greek Street. Now, I’m not quire sure whether I’m more irritated by it taking 25 minutes to go 2.4 miles or that it cost me £5.75 per mile. It

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

No more need to worry about Labour’s long term plans

I am now in sunny Afghanistan, where we woke up to the Crewe result. This puts thing into a new perspective. It’s becoming rapidly clear that we need not worry about the many long-term plans of this government (abolish A-Levels, reform pensions, identity cards and the like). But what of the commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan once Labour is gone? Liam Fox has spoken of the need to either spend more or deploy less.  We’re still waiting to find which is to be the Tory answer.    

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What we know now

Here are a few things that I think we’ve learnt from last night’s result: 1). The Tories are now the best closers in British politics: In London, the local elections and last night the Tories did significantly better than the final opinion polls suggested they would. This suggests that the Tory ground game is now good enough to add a couple of points to their score. At the next election, this could make the difference between a slim and solid Tory majority. 2). ‘Tory hatred’ no longer moves votes: The Labour campaign desperately tried to whip up prejudice against a public school educated, lawyer who looked and sounded like a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?

Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely: “Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even – unlikely – if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?

If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing. A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tory majority of 7,860

The Returning Officer has just declared the official result and Edward Timpson is the new MP for Crewe and Nantwich. This is a massive defeat for Labour and will make many Labour MPs distinctly fearful about their own prospects.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Final result sometime after 2am

No one is disputing that Labour has taken a mighty kicking tonight but we are going to have to wait until a little bit after 2am for the formal declaration. Turnout was high at 58 percent, but the word is that Tory Nantwich turned out in force while Labour Crewe stayed at home. This suggests that the Labour campaign had the opposite effect from intended–turning out the Tory base.  

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will the recess save Brown?

The one consolation for Gordon Brown about tonight’s result is that the MPs are all leaving Westminster for the Whitsun recess and so the opportunities to plot will be limited. Alternatively, MPs could get it in the neck from their constituents and local parties about how bad things are and return to London steeled to the task ahead.

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour’s expectations management strategy fails again

If there is one aspect where the Tories still feel that they lag behind Labour it is expectations management. Tory staffers feel frustrated that Labour succeeds so easily in getting its worst case scenarios into the journalistic blood stream. But once again things are going to be a lot worse for Labour than even they though. Earlier in the week, Labour were spinning that a defeat by 3,000 or less would be a decent result for them. Whether the Tory majority is going to be big enough to ‘force the bastard out’ remains to be seen.  

James Forsyth James Forsyth

It is a now a question of how big the Tory majority will be

It appears pretty much certain that the Tories have won tonight’s by-election and reports are that they might have done so by a truly staggering margin. If the margins that are being discussed are accurate, and it is likely that they are, then this really could endanger Brown’s position. It seems that tonight is going to be another triumph for Eric Pickles and the Tory campaign team. Stay tuned.