Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
According to Mike Smithson at Political Betting, Alan Milburn may be planning to challenge Brown for the Labour leadership, in the aftermath of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Says Smithson: “I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this weekend would be the ideal time to strike.” Could this be true?
Nick Clegg’s giving a speech at Policy Exchange this morning, in which he’ll announce his intention to cut taxes for low and middle income earners. In many respects, it’s a landmark moment for the Lib Dems (although Clegg’s political invisibility will probably negate any positive effects), and it’s certainly good for the Tories. When the Lib Dem leader can talk so openly about tax cuts, then you know the New Labour mantra “tax cuts = worse public services” is in its death throes. The new emphasis is on loosening the fiscal squeeze that people face. Clegg’s words will be a few more drops in the tidal shift. And will make
That’s the latest Guardian/ICM poll. This is Labour’s lowest level of support since the poll began in 1984. There’s no obvious way out for Labour. Sure, they could ditch Gordon but any successor would, I suspect, be compelled to call an election since I think it unlikely the public will stomach consecutive unelected Prime Ministers and it’s equally unlikely that a new leader could actually win an election anyway. The party’s over – as it deserves to be since no party should be in office for more than a decade anyway.
John Denham is now only 7 to 1 to be the next leader of the Labour party and Mike Smithson is tipping him as the potential Gordon replacement best placed to keep the government alive in the south. So, I was interested to see how he’d do on Straight Talk which is one of the tougher, most intellectually rigorous interviews out there. (You can watch the interview here) Denham stands up pretty well; he does a particularly nice job of arguing that there’s no contradiction between courting the Labour base and the aspirational classes. However, his understated style makes it hard to see him as a leader. One thing worth
Like Matt, I was genuinely impressed by the defrosted Gordon Brown on display at the Google conference. However – and churlish though it may be – I’d like to point out that his Einstein joke (where he swaps places with his chauffeur) is a Brownie. The genesis of this fake and oft-repeated tale is here. You may think the PM’s claim to have seen a banner saying “worldwide campaign against globalisation” is real because he used it in Jan08, Jul07, Mar07, Jan07 and Nov06 and (first) in a Newsweek article in Sep06. My guess is that he spotted this slogan not in a demo, but in an Apr00 article by
A new ICM poll for The Guardian has the Tories up two on 41, Labour down seven to 27 and the Lib Dems on 22, a three point rise on last month. This is the lowest level of support for Labour ever recorded in The Guardian / ICM poll which started in1984. There is no silver lining to the poll for Brown. He trails Cameron on every attribute of leadership that ICM asked about and three quarters of people who voted Labour in 2005 think Blair was a better Prime Minister than Brown. Update: The Independent also has a new poll out which has the Tories 13 ahead in Crewe and
Here’s footage of Gordon Brown’s “confident, relaxed and witty” speech at Google Zeitgeist earlier today. What do CoffeeHousers make of it?
I know many CoffeeHousers will take some time to forgive me for suggesting James Purnell as the best chance for Labour. But I am not alone. A rush of money on him has led Ladbrokes to make him joint second favourite to succeed Brown at 6/1. The curse of being the favourite still falls upon David Miliband at 5/2. Alan Johnson, whom the Tories fear the most, is also on 6/1. Here is the full list. David Miliband — 5/2 Alan Johnson — 6/1 James Purnell — 6/1 Jack Straw — 7/1 John Denham — 7/1 Ed Balls — 8/1 Jon Cruddas — 10/1 Andy Burnham — 16/1 Ed Miliband
Here’s the latest quote from Tamsin Dunwoody: “I am just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job” Now, come on Tamsin—you’re also the daughter of two MPs, the grandaughter of a peer, a former member of the Welsh Assembly and a university graduate. PS: The quote is from Sky’s online debate between the main candidates which is well worth reading in full.
The first thought that occurs on looking at Gordon Brown’s YouTube PMQs is that Rory Bremner’s impersonation is now near-perfect. It’s a parody of himself. He says he’ll be glad to take everyone’s questions “on this exciting new initiative.” All Politics 2.0, going straight to the public without the interface of journalists or MPs. And then without pausing for breath, the Great Helmsman helpfully tells us what these questions should be. “Questions you have about how gloablisation’s working, what’s happening to climate change, how we can build the houses we need, how we can get the jobs we need for the future… I’m here to answer your questions. Politicians get
Do take the time to read Cameron’s speech today – it may be his most convincing yet. In it, he lays into government waste more forcefully than ever before, and outlines a Tory attack on the “three causes of a bigger state and rising public spending” – the cost of social failure; the cost of unreformed public services; and the cost of bureaucracy. It’s the perfect approach, and, suddenly, “sharing the proceeds of growth” makes a whole lot more sense. The best aspect of the speech, however, is how it humanises the economy. “We need to start living within our means,” Cameron says. The public finances have been stretched to
Stephan Shakespeare had a smart post up on Centre Right over the weekend, arguing that Labour were weapons-testing the class issue in Crewe. But it seems that Labour’s clumsy-premature use of the issue has actually forced them to remove it from their general election arsenal.Today’s Standard reports that This is good news for the Conservatives. David Cameron and George Osborne’s respective decisions to join the Bullingdon are a—potential—election weakness. But Labour by having played the class card so early and so crudely has made it far less effective should they choose to use it in future. It will, if Labour loses Crewe, be viewed as a failed tactic and so
Well, well. I have just watched Gordon Brown deliver a speech on the global economy and the web at the Google Zeitgeist forum at The Grove hotel. Someone has definitely put something in the PM’s tea, because this was a very different Gordon to the testy, embattled figure of the past few weeks. Confident, relaxed and witty, he delivered his speech without notes, pacing the stage and playing the audience at this excellent event. Instead of lecturing them – the cream of the new media world – he praised them for their part in the ‘biggest re-structuring of the global economy we have seen in our history.’ He urged them,
Text for the day is Jackie Ashley’s Guardian column. Jackie argues that those who object to aspects of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill are acting from intrinsically “reactionary” motives: she warns that this Commons battle is a dry run for the general election. Modern Labour versus Luddite, anti-progressive Conservatives. Dave and his gang, she warns, are dangerous counter-revolutionaries pretending to be modernisers. The Spectator has expressed deep reservations about this bill, both in its editorial column and John Patten’s recent article: we are especially exercised by the clause which would, in effect, abolish fatherhood from the lives of some children. I see the Government’s proposal as old-fashioned and our
Here are some of the posts made over the weekend… Andrew Neil wonders whether Gordon Brown will shed a tear for his old grammar school. Fraser Nelson reveals the unsettling truth about abortions at 24 weeks, and reports on a by-election poll boost for the Tories. James Forsyth highlights the tensions at No.10, and says that West Midlands Police owe us an explanation. And, over at Americano, James also suggests that McCain is picking the wrong fight with Obama over Iran.
After a few subtle flirtations, Nick Clegg has finally decided that his Lib Dems will support the Tories in the event of a hung parliament. Apparently, he’d back Tory Budgets, and side with Cameron & Co. in any votes of confidence. It’s a set-up which would leave the Tory leader free to accept the post of Prime Minister after the next general election, even if his party doesn’t win an outright majority. The timing of this decision is telling. Many expected Clegg to leave things up in the air, and make his move in the wake of the next general election. But the fact that it’s come now suggests he
NATO is under attack from so many forces (mainly the EU wanting a common defence policy) that it’s hard to work out what will eventually break up the alliance. But the cluster bomb conference in Dublin that starts today may be the one. No one likes cluster bombs, and we’d all like to live in a world without them. But there is a difference between smart bombs and “dumb” bombs – a difference observed by the MoD, which wants to keep using its smart munitions like the M73 and M83 which self-destruct if they don’t detonate. The Foreign Office disagrees and we’re having what Lord Malloch Brown calls an “internal
I was reviewing the papers on the Marr sofa earlier with Jane Moore, one of my favourite columnists. Next week’s abortion vote came up, and she said she is pro-choice – but was persuaded of the need to reduce the time limit from 24 weeks to 20 weeks by a letter she received from a nurse involved in the procedure. Its contents, she told Marr, were unsuitable to be discussed on air. She later told me what it was – a description of how at 24 weeks the child is often strong enough to be alive – and then must be left to die on the side of an NHS
Labour’s campaign in Crewe is, rightly being, lambasted. It is depressing that after 11 years in power, Labour can’t give voters a positive reason to vote for the party and have instead had to revert to the tired rhetoric of class prejudice. But what we shouldn’t overlook is how the issue is exacerbating the split within the Number 10 staff. Stephen Carter, the strategist Brown hired to try and re-launch his premiership, is dead against the Crewe approach. The Mail on Sunday reports that he now plans to bring Oona King in as political secretary, in large part, because she shares his belief that these kind of attacks are ineffectual.
When Gordon Brown entered Downing Street for the first time as Prime Minister he talked about the excellence of the education he received at Kirkcaldy High School in Fife. He even invoked the school motto – “I will try my utmost” – and claimed: “I wouldn’t be standing here without the opportunities I got there.” Some in Scotland detected a massive hypocrisy in these words. His grammar school might have given him – and many like him – the opportunity to get on in life but that had not stopped Brown being in the vanguard of Scottish socialists who wanted to abolish every grammar school in the country. They succeeded: