Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Boris has endorsed Barack Obama’s bid for the US Presidency, claiming that a victory for the Illinois senator would “do fantastic things for the confidence and feelings of black people around the world”. It means the London Mayor has broken political convention on getting involved in foreign elections. And I imagine he’s ruffled a few Tory feathers in the process. P.S. Do check out The Spectator’s endorsement of John McCain here.
I, for one, am weeping no tears about the collapse of the British Energy takeover deal. Invesco and Prudential – the institutional shareholders understood to have led the backout – are right to say that if energy prices are likely to be high for the foreseeable future then a greater premium should be attached to the price. They’re especially right to be nervous if the matchmaker was one Gordon Brown, who has a reverse Midas touch when making investment decisions. First came his disastrous foray into asset management, selling the nation’s gold at a fraction of today’s price (actually, it’s worth being specific: he sold our gold for $275 an ounce, against
Since June, Jack Straw’s been trying to push through reforms which would limit the Tories’ ability to pour £millions into key marginal seats between elections – the ‘Ashcroft Effect’ as it’s sometimes called. Well, it’s not looking too promising for Straw’s plans. The Guardian have got their hands on a document in which the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, Peter Wardle, expresses “serious reservations” about the proposed reforms. Of course, the commission can’t block the legislation. But the reforms would only come into effect after it’s offered its guidance. And the commission’s reservations mean that Straw may be waiting some time for that. So much time, in fact, that it’s looking unlikely the changes will come into effect before the next election. So, Tory
Since Camilla Cavendish makes some points in her Times column today that are similar to some I made about David Miliband’s leadership challenge yesterday, I obviously think she’s written a fine, penetrating piece. As she says, In policy terms, it is the Conservatives who have so far seemed optimistic about the ability of people to make decisions for themselves, and Labour that has made devolving power to a few hospitals and headteachers look like an am-dram production, involving more histrionics and agonising than Racine. The irony is that where it has devolved most power – to Scotland and Wales – it has let nationalists hollow out its core vote. This
Yesterday I wondered if David Miliband was aiming to be Labour’s William Hague. Today it seems that he’s more likely to be the second coming of Michael Portillo. His bizarre appearance on Jeremy Vine’s radio show this afternoon during which he said, inter alia, that “I’ve always wanted to support Gordon as leader” leaves him with almost no room for manoevre. He must stand and he must stand now or risk humiliation. Whatever his other faults, Portillo never fully recovered from his dithering over whether or not to challenge John Major. He had the phone lines installed but retreated from the logic of his actions – and indeed from the
The Telegraph have just posted the results of their latest YouGov poll. It has the Tories a hefty 22 points ahead of Labour. And Brown’s personal ratings are disastrous. Only 15 percent of voters think he’s up the job; 65 percent believe he’s an electoral liability; and 45 percent say that Labour’s chances would improve were Brown replaced. The list goes on. All good news for David Miliband, surely? No, not really. The poll finds that Labour would do no better were Miliband in charge – in fact, the Tory lead would go up to 23 points. And other potential leaders would fare little better. Jack Straw would reduce the gap to 21 points, whilst Ed Balls would open it up to a massive 33 points (and
With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, David Cameron must be using the summer break thinking of whom to place around the Cabinet table. But he would do well to also think of what ministerial portfolios should exist at all. Prime Ministers have the greatest leeway to reshape the government’s machinery upon taking office. Then it gets trickier as voters expect results, not tinkering with bureaucratic arrangements. A number of institutional changes are both needed and politically expedient. First, a Tory government should create a new Cabinet-level Secretary of State for Veteran Affairs – with a department underneath – appointing a senior politician, or perhaps a former 4* soldier like
David Miliband has “suddenly” cancelled a trip to India, which was originally scheduled for September. The Times has the full story here.
David Miliband has now gone so far he can’t go back. But could this be his “botched election” moment? His appearance on the Jeremy Vine show went well, inasmuch as the callers lined up to denounce Brown and he seemed to engage with them well. His defence of Brown was again so weak that it would be read as a provocation. Brown was a good chancellor and has given us values we can go forward with, says Miliband, with a valedictory tone, as if to say, “go now, and go gracefully”. Brown must either destroy him, isolate him or yield to him. But Miliband cannot pretend nothing has happened. He
When David Miliband’s team get together this afternoon to talk through his performance on the Jeremy Vine show, I hope they realise they’ve got to do something about his voice. There’s the embarrassing ‘mockney’ accent (not shared by brother Ed). And worse — his recent attempt to widen his appeal and stop dropping his t’s: “Grea’, sorry I mean GreaT” “Vo’ers, I mean voTers”. Then there’s the fact that DM’s attempts at a Blairish matey-ness end up sounding not just patronising, but slightly psychotic. It’s as if he’s convinced we’re all brain-dead cretins, so he’s putting on his special slow, patient voice in the hope that it helps us get
I wrote earlier that Brown is being urged to sack David Miliband. But the Mirror’s Bob Roberts puts forward a different scenario – that Brown annoints Miliband as his heir apparent, thereby avoiding a leadership challenge now. According to Roberts, our Prime Minister’s “ready” to do this, too – he may even seal the deal by making Miliband his Chancellor. Hm. You can see the attraction for Brown – unless he does something pretty drastic, he’s likely to be forced out before the next election, and won’t have any chance to rectify his battered reputation. But two problems present themselves: 1) this could make Brown seem even weaker, and 2) I doubt people will be too keen on yet another
Cameron “does” punters very well. When I’ve followed him on the campaign trail, I’ve been struck by how he has a gift whereby he can click with pretty much anyone. For those who didn’t see his interview on Newsnight last night, you can watch it again here. It was arranged by Radio One’s Rajini Vaidyanathan, who has a deadly knack of catching politicians off guard (as Gordon Brown found out). She had assembled what should, for Cameron, have been a troublesome mix of Radio One listeners. A working single mother from Gravesend who wanted to know why she should be discriminated against under the Tories, and thought Cameron as “borderline
As Fraser writes in his cover piece today, Miliband doesn’t want to bloody his hands during any leadership struggle. Sure, the Foreign Secretary’s plotting with the best of them. But as for being the one to stick the knife between Brown’s shoulder-blades – that can be left for Jack Straw or any of that batch of ministers prepared to resign over all this. Or at least that’s the plan. Problem is, there’s always the chance that others won’t want to do Miliband’s dirty work for him. Jack Straw certainly isn’t too keen on the idea. And I suspect Harriet Harman, Ed Balls or any of the other suspected plotters won’t
Obviously, there’s lots to say about the Glasgow East by-election result. We’ll get there eventually. But in the meantime here, via Iain Dale, is an updated version of Gordon Brown in his bunker. Most amusing. Warning: the sub-titles contain strong language.
No, I don’t think so. Do you? Really? On the other hand, Danny Finkelstein thinks that David Miliband’s piece in the Guardian this morning signals his determination to be a candidate to succeed Gordon Brown. Rosa Prince agrees. And there was me thinking that Miliband is the intelligent one. Doesn’t he remember William Hague’s example, doomed to become party leader too young and at the worst possible moment. There’s precious little upside in being the next Labour leader, whether the changeover takes place this year or next. Better by far to back a caretaker such as Jack Straw – the only politician named by Miliband in his piece – and
If so, you may want to print out the speech that Matthew Parris wrote for you in The Spectator recently.
We’ve had a few technical problems today, so here are some Coffee House posts that you may have missed: Fraser Nelson wonders whether Alex Salmond is Labour’s biggest threat, and give his thoughts on the Labour leadership struggle. James Forsyth outlines the the internal turmoil that Labour can expect should Brown be ousted, and analyses David Miliband’s op-ed in the Guardian. And Peter Hoskin asks whether Labour will be annihilated at the next election, and reports on the job losses at Northern Rock.
A leadership challenge really picks up steam when Cabinet ministers start coming out in support of it. Who’ll be the first to do so, should Miliband, Straw, Harman et al decide to run? One good bet might be the senior minister who’s most vulnerable to defeat in the next general election – the one who’s got the most to lose if Gordon Brown stays in power, and the least to lose by forcing a change. In this case, that person’s got to be Jacqui Smith. A swing of just 3.4 percent – the lowest “swing value” of anyone in the cabinet – would see her lose her seat at the next election. A precarious position,
…Ed Balls is a-skipping. Well, not quite – this footage is actually from an event back in May, and it hit YouTube in June. But it’s only just made it up onto the indispensable Play Political. I wonder if Team Miliband lies behind the discovery…
I just bumped into John Mason, the glorious victor of Glasgow East, nemesis of the once mighty Scottish Labour and trigger of Gordon Brown’s leadership woes. He hardly said a word, being shown around with the demeanor of an awe-struck schoolboy who’s escaped from the pages of the Beano. I have said before that he was, in my view, the weakest of all the candidates, which just underlines the power of the SNP machine. Scottish Labour remains decapitated, without purpose or direction. Whilst the Scottish Tories are wrapped up in cutting deals with the SNP. Unionist parties in Scotland have never been weaker. Should England care? Yes, and not for