Politics

There is a little glimmer of hope this afternoon for Gordon Brown: the Politics Home 5,000 Panel reports that Brown’s ratings are no longer falling. The bad news is that they have bottomed out with 77 percent of voters disapproving of the job Brown is doing. If the Prime Minister’s mood is improved by this news then he shouldn’t read Ben Brogan’s blog which warns of trouble ahead for Brown from a possible Scottish by-election. A defeat in his own backyard would be another personal humiliation for Brown.  

Strikingly good BBC Question Time last night, the highlight of which was David Miliband being asked if he could save the Labour Party. He avoided that question, but his answers to the others seemed to suggest he is ruling himself out of the job because he made so many mistakes. First, he admitted he became Foreign Secretary without knowing that Robert Mugabe had been given an honorary knighthood – something that has been a contentious issue since Blair was dragged into it five years ago. Then, on 42 days, Miliband claimed “you can be held for up to four years in France” – it’s actually four days, as Shami Chakrabarti

Over at Centre Right, Tim Montgomerie flags up a new poll that shows the No campaign leading in Ireland in advance of next week’s vote on the Lisbon Treaty. The No side, in a dramatic reversal, is now five points up over the Yes camp but with many voters still undecided. A defeat for the treaty formerly known as the Constitution in Ireland would, at the least, throw Brussels into confusion. It would also push this issue back up the agenda in Britain reminding voters of how they were denied the referendum they had been promised, giving Gordon Brown yet another problem to deal with.

Gordon Brown frequently asserts Britain has record employment or that Labour has “the best employment record in history” (Hansard, 16 Jan 08). In fact this honour goes to Nigel Lawson whose achievements Brown has never been able to come close to. Brown has specialised in finding alternatives to work – welfare, studenthood, etc. But here is the graph for economic activity percentage rates – ie, the proportion of people in work. It’s a strange graph because, aside from the industrial realignment of early Thatcher years, it basically oscillates between 78% and 80%. Sadly, this is not adjusted for immigration – which accounts for 82% of new jobs since 1997 according

Many CoffeeHousers have asked why Cameron doesn’t lampoon Brown for using his trademark dodgy figures as per our Brownie series. Well today he did – not on economics but on vehicle excise duty. Brown said 24 of the 30 most  popular car models won’t be affected. Then Cameron pounced. “once again, dodgy statistics from the PM” he said.  “In any other walk of life” he said “the trading standards officer would have him clamped in irons”. Brown counts the Ford Focus as one model, disregarding the 40 variations such as saloon, estate etc. This may sound strange coming from me, but I’m not sure the stat picking worked. When you start