Cameron v Balls
Cameron’s enjoying a bit of a duel with Ed Balls. After the latter again muttered something under his breath, Cameron responded: “Thank you. I know he’s the Minister for Children, but he doesn’t have to behave like one.”
Politics
Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Wednesday
But what would the Tories do?
Cameron is making an effective attack on Darling and his non-Budget. He is rightly concentrating on the government’s consistent and substantial underestimating of budget deficits. But if the deficits are really that bad, then why do Cameron’s Tories promise to match Labour’s tax and spend for the next three years?
Not a Budget performance from Cameron
Cameron, also sporting a purple tie, is delivering one of his stronger performances. He has some eye-catching stats—Britain is in the same debt league as Pakistan, Hungary and Egypt—and sounds more comfortable talking about economics than he normally does and I’m not just saying this because Cameron just said that he wouldn’t introduce across the board tax increases on alcohol.
Cameron steps up
David Cameron’s begun his reponse to Darling’s speech. He’s started well, and is taking on the Chancellor over his dodgy figures and misrepresentations – exactly the right approach. He’s even discussing inflation Brownie-style. A nice vignette: Cameron pointed out that we’re facing record levels of tax. From across the House, Ed Balls utters: “So what?” Cameron highlights Balls’ exclamation to the House and to the whole country…
A do nothing Budget
We’re already into padding … a penny here, a penny there on various pet spending projects (schools, apprentices) which have already underperformed despite the billions thrown at them … and new targets suggested (80% carbon cuts by 2050 instead of 60%) so far in the future that Darling and the rest of the cabinet will be pushing up the daisies long before future generations get to find out if they were met. When you hear a Chancellor droning on about cavity wall insulation … you know this is a do-nothing Budget. Since that’s what most pundits seemed to want, he’s delivered!
Homes are where the votes are | 12 March 2008
You have to say this for New Labour they have learned from Margaret Thatcher’s success in 1980s and understand how critical is for them to be the party of home ownership. The Tories must not succumb to the NIMBY temptation.
The crazy Cabinet
Any citizen tuning in to the BBC to watch the Budget would conclude that we are governed by a wardful of maniacs. As Darling drones on, Jack Straw and Alan Johnson have their tongues lodged in their mouths. Ed Balls and Hazel Blears compete to nod like the dogs on the dashboard of a Ford Transit. Harriet Harman chides the Tories like an irritable headmistress. Ruth Kelly grins miserably. David Miliband looks on quizzically. Douglas Alexander slumps with abject melancholy as though he might at any moment burst in to tears: perhaps he is considering his triumph of the election-that-never-was, the moment when Gordon’s luck turned. Breaking news: Jack Straw
Scant consolation
The loans available to small businesses are going to be increased. I suspect that small business owners would have preferred it if Brown hadn’t increased their taxes in Budget 2007.
“Investment” not waste
Another Brown-style trick. Darling’s just waxing lyrical about the “record levels of investment” in public services. Never mind that we haven’t seen commensurate improvements in those services. Never mind all the waste. Like his boss, he’s also now talking about public service reform – “spending must be matched by reform” – shame they haven’t done that for the past decade.
Treasury Purple
Seeing Darling wearing a purple tie and Yvette Cooper a purple suit, one wonders whether some spin doctor has decided that purple best represents stability in a time of global uncertainty. The Prime Minister, however, is sporting a red tie.
The word of the day: stability
We’re only a few minutes in and Darling has already said stability at least three times. The phrase of the day is ‘global uncertainty’—which Darling and Brown think is their get out of jail free card.
Brownian emotion
It’s like Brown never left No.11. Alistair Darling started his Budget speech saying that it’s key purpose is “stability now and in the future”. I’ve already lost count of the times he’s said “stability”, and he’s only a couple of minutes in…
The table Darling doesn’t want you to see
As I suspect we’ll hear the claim today that the UK is somehow holding up well in the face of the global slowdown, here is a handy table showing why we the precise opposite is true and we are literally hit harder than any other OECD country. Real GDP growth 2007 Real GDP growth – 2008 Slowdown factor 1 United Kingdom 3.1 1.7 44.9% 2 Ireland 5.2 2.9 44.8% 3 New Zealand 3.4 1.9 43% 4 Spain 3.8 2.5 35% 5 Germany 2.6 1.8 34% 6 Finland 4.2 2.9 32% 7 Italy 1.8 1.3 30% 8 Austria 3.3 2.5 26% 9 Belgium 2.6 1.9 25% 10 Switzerland 2.7
Blast from the past | 12 March 2008
Pictures have just landed of Darling holding aloft the old Gladstone budget box – ditching the new one Brown’s constituents made for him in 1997. First time we’ve seen this since Ken Clarke’s 1997 budget. Darling will want this to be symbolic of a new era – no Brown-style deceptive budgets, no tricks this time, we’re told. Funny to see Darling distancing himself from Brown in this way. Let’s see if his Budget wafts the false scent we’ve become so accustomed to expecting.
Live Budget coverage
With Alistair Darling delivering his Budget speech at 12:30, Coffee House is shifting into live coverage mode. Expect frequent updates, as well as analysis from Matthew d’Ancona, Fraser Neslon, Martin Vander Weyer and others. Click here for our live coverage
The fictions have begun…
The Prime Minister’s Spokesman has just given the lobby a briefing – and repeating what Darling briefed the Cabinet. I hope Chancellor started his presentation with the words “once upon a time” because what followed was demonstrable fiction. Here are the main points:- 1) All the countries in the world are facing problems 2) Britain is well-placed to withstand these problems. 3) Inflation is low 4) Debt is low, by historical and international standards are low 5) Economic growth is resilient. My response: 1) There is a global credit crunch, but Britain will be amongst the worst hit by it (see point 5) 2) We would be well-placed had a
What’s the right response to boredom?
The spin ahead of the Budget is that it is going to be really quite dull, a chance for Darling to remind us of his ability to bore us all into submission. The Treasury keeps stressing that there are no rabbits to be pulled out of hats. Either this is an elaborate double-bluff or we are all going to need to heavily caffeinate ourselves to get through the speech, my money—the £1.79 for a coffee at Pret to be precise—is on the latter. If Darling plays it Boycott straight, it poses a challenge for David Cameron. Most of his backbenchers, and his grassroots, will be looking for a morale boosting,
Lest we forget | 12 March 2008
Lest we forget: in the midst of today’s Budget-mania, pause and consider that the Lisbon Treaty, a sweeping package of reforms to our relationship with the EU, cleared the Commons without a hitch last night. So much for Tony Blair’s promise in April 2004 to mount a definitive national debate on the original EU Constitutional Treaty (of which the present Treaty is a shame-faced near-replica). “Let the issue be put and let the battle be joined!” declared Blair in the Commons. Well, that pledge of a referendum was dumped on the spurious grounds that the new text is not “constitutional” – and so there will be no battle to join.
Tuesday
Budget 2008: Live coverage
Tune into Coffee House tomorrow for live coverage of Alistair Darling’s Budget speech from 12:30pm. Throughout the day, we’ll have anaylsis from Matthew d’Ancona, Fraser Neslon, Martin Vander Weyer and several guest contributors.
Budget 2008: What to expect
The Guardian’s politics blog has a great post outlining all the the latest “speculation, leaks and educated guesses” on tomorrow’s Budget. So far the most striking predictions are: 1) £5 billion of tax rises; 2) more cash for failing inner city schools and the Academies programme; 3) a tax on plastic bags, among a whole raft of green proposals; and 4) an above-inflation increase for the duty on beer, wine and spirits.