And the first result is in…
The Tories have held Tamworth, gaining one seat in the process. Expect a flurry of results around 23:30.
Politics
Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Thursday
Inflated expectations?
I have just spoken to a senior Labour staffer (not Douglas Alexander!) who tells me they are seeing the “mirror image” of what I am hearing from the Tories. That is to say: high turnout in the Labour supporting inner city areas, much better than they thought. There is an obvious risk that Labour only looks at zones 1-2, the Tories at Greater London and both get inflated expectations.
Is tonight going to be disastrous for Labour?
The early word isn’t good for Labour. A few outlets have called the mayoral election for Boris. And now Benedict Brogan and Sam Coates reveal some Labour insiders think the Tories could hit around 47 percent of the vote. A cyncial attempt by Team Brown to alter expectations? Or are Labour heading for even more of a battering than we expected?
Backing Boris | 1 May 2008
You can add PoliticalBetting.com and Betfair to the list of those who have called the election for Boris.
More on that ConservativeHome claim
Anyone who follows ConservativeHome.com know it doesn’t take fliers. And it has just called the election for Boris. You may think: wishful thinking from those Tories. But no website is better plugged in to what’s happening out there; what the activists and tellers are saying. My sources report massive turnout in strong Tory areas like Chingford. I suspect this year, as with last, the new media will be ahead of the broadcast. And Conservativehome will be ahead of the new media. I am here in the Sky News green room with William Hague and Douglas Alexander. Rangers victory has cheered Dougie up anyway. Something tells me it will be the only
ConservativeHome calls it for Boris
Here’s what ConservativeHome have to say: “Based on a wide range of conversations we’ve had throughout the day with people in the field and with Tory and other insiders we are confident that on the basis of patterns of turnout, postal votes and canvass returns Boris Johnson has been elected Mayor of London.” Fingers crossed that they’re right.
Polls are closed | 1 May 2008
5, 4, 3, 2, 1 … and polls are now closed. Exit poll data should be filtering through soon. We’ll keep you informed.
Was Ken a Tory?
Hm, I’m not sure about this. But according to Harry’s Place, Ken may once have been a Young Conservative. Discuss…
Local elections 2008: live coverage
Stay with Coffee House tonight for all the latest on the local elections. Expect frequent updates, as well as analysis from Matthew d’Ancona, Fraser Nelson, Mary Wakefield, James Forsyth and Peter Hoskin. In the meantime, you can always flick through the briefing that the Electoral Reform Society has put together. When are results coming in? Where are the key battles being fought? Find all the answers in its well-informed pages.
Your guide to tonight’s entertainment
The Electoral Reform Society has produced an invaluable briefing on tonight’s event. Handily, it includes the times that the key results are expected to be called—remember that the counting in London doesn’t begin until tomorrow although there should be an exit poll after the polls close at ten. The results to look for are Bury (expected at midnight) which is currently under no overall control, if the Tories can go from having a plurality of the seats to a majority it will suggest that the Cameron effect is spreading beyond London. North Tyneside (another one at midnight) is very possibly the win the Conservatives want most as it would show
Three essential columns
While we wait for the local election results, I’d thoroughly recommend reading this morning’s columns by Mary Ann Sieghart, Iain Martin and Martin Bright. The three of them, brilliantly distil what has gone wrong for Gordon Brown. Sieghart, reminding us of what we have been missing since she’s stopped writing regularly for The Times’s op-ed page, articulates why the Labour whips office is going to have such trouble enforcing party discipline if things gets worse for Gordon. Iain Martin explains why Stephen Carter’s organisational fixes can’t solve the Prime Minister’s problems which are essentially politically. While Martin Brights points to the tipping point question: So what would be so awful
The Evening Standard endorses Boris
Today, The Evening Standard formally threw its support behind Boris Johnson for Mayor. Here’s the conclusion of their very solid editorial: This paper believes that the key issues in this contest are honesty and competence. On both, Mr Livingstone falls down badly. His broken promises and the irregularities surrounding some of his closest associates – exposed by our reporting – show that he cannot be trusted to maintain the standards of integrity that his office demands. Boris Johnson can offer London a fresh vision. He has mastered the complexities of London’s government to come up with policies that offer a real alternative to those of Mr Livingstone. He has the
Do the Brown new guard see Alan Johnson as Labour’s saviour?
Last week, The Daily Mirror reported that Alan Johnson would be made the chief whip and the government front man in a post-May day reshuffle. Now, Kevin Maguire’s New Statesman column passes on word that Stephen Carter tried to persuade Johnson to take the job of deputy Prime Minister. Johnson would certainly be a good foil to Brown—he’s English and relaxed—but rumours like this are going to put a target on his back.
Is Blair eclipsing Brown in Israel?
I’ve just returned from Israel, but the issues have followed me to London. Tomorrow the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee convenes in the capital, to discuss the Palestinian situation. Gordon Brown’s expected to speak at the event, but – as I understand it – Tony Blair will be hovering around as well, in his capacity as Middle East envoy. Who – if either – will commandeer the limelight, I wonder? Whilst I was in Israel, not one person had a bad word to say about Blair – the consensus being that he’s doing a lot to promote economic development and peace in the Palestinian territories. I asked Olmert’s spokesman what the Israeli
It’s election time
It’s local and London election time, and Coffee House will be bringing you frequent news and analysis throughout today and tomorrow. For now, though, an overview of what the papers are saying… Are the local elections a dress rehearsal for the general election? Not so, says Peter Riddell in the Times: “The joy of local elections is their sheer unpredictability and the idiosyncrasies of the results. As even a glance at the candidates in the London mayoral contest shows, we are not seeing clones of Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg rehearsing for the big one in two years time… …So nothing will be quite what it seems, not
Wednesday
Major Carroll Advances
Heartening news from Ireland: when the government banned smoking in pubs in 2004, 27% of Irish folk smoked. Now 29% consume these little tubes of delight*. True, there’s a long way to go yet but every journey begins with a single smoke… *Dennis Potter’s description, if memory serves. [Hat-tip: Taking Liberties.]
How to vote for Boris
If you’re voting in London tomorrow, you are going to be given three ballot papers—one for the mayoralty, one for the constituency section of the London assembly and one for the proportional vote. In the mayoral vote, you can vote for a first preference—we’d recommend putting a tick next to Boris—and a second preference. If your first preference is Boris or Ken, then your second preference is irrelevant. But if you’re voting for one of the other candidates, your second preference is key. In reality, there’s not much point putting anyone other than one of the two leading candidates as your second preference as the votes will be reallocated between
Cameron is walking into an elephant trap on 42 days
Like Fraser, I thought that David Cameron went on the wrong topic today. But I think the bigger mistake the Tories might be making is in trying to turn 42 days into a trial of Brown’s political strength. Regardless of what one thinks about 42 days, and a good case can be made both ways, there is something deeply unappealing about people playing politics with the issue. Now, you can say that both sides are doing it but today Cameron looked like the main offender. The Tories also face the problem of what do they do if, as looks likely, they defeat Brown on this issue. The sight of them
In crisis, there’ll be an opportunity for Brown
If Livingstone loses on Thursday and the Labour vote slumps elsewhere in the country, the headlines for Gordon Brown will be dire and he’ll be plunged further into the mire. But in this crisis there will be a brief window of opportunity for him. The press will be in full ‘government in crisis mode’ and getting so excited by the remote prospect of a leadership challenge that Brown will actually have the freedom to carry out a drastic reshuffle. It will be embarrassing and humiliating for Brown to sack or demote those who he chose less than a year ago, but Brown will already be embarrassed and humiliated so he
A better PMQs for Brown
In a not-very-hotly contested category, this was perhaps Gordon Brown’s best PMQs performance. His content wasn’t any more accurate, but sounding confident is half the battle. And he did. He didn’t stutter or garble his words and looked much more relaxed. As ever, there’s a bit of Dr Johnson’s dog about this – but Cameron chose the wrong issue and if he expected Brown to crumble he was mistaken. A day ahead of the local elections, Cameron could and should have picked a doorstep issue. Instead he went on the case for 42 day detention without trial. Brown seemed quite optimistic about it. When he was defending it, I fancied