Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

No such thing as a safe seat

 Dunfermline, Crewe, Glasgow East – the phenomenon of safe Labour seats being upended is one that deserves a little more attention. Let’s consider that incredible turnout in Glasgow East – 42% in a seat where 48% turned up for the general. For the first time in decades, a political party (the SNP) campaigned hard there. People knocked on doors. The nationalists raised, and deployed, an army of people and asked Glasgow East voters what they thought, they engaged with them. And it worked.   Remember the BNP’s electoral successes – such as they are – come from exploiting the forgotten people in Labour’s modern-day rotten boroughs. They were the first

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Schadenfreude but not much else for the Tories

Aside from schadenfreude, there is not much in the Glasgow East result to make David Cameron smile. It reminds us that what is happening nationally is a fury directed at Labour, not Obama style enthusiasm for the Tories. I had initially thought coming third was quite a result for Cameron but went to bed before calculating voting shares. As CoffeeHousers pointed out, Cameron has made no progress in Glasgow East with his 6% voting share unchanged. And that in spite of an excellent candidate. Of course in these by-elections, voters wishing to stir things up pick the nearest stick to beat Labour with. In Dunfermline and West Fife, Brown’s home

Peter Hoskin

Cameron throws down the gauntlet

David Cameron on Sky News this morning:  “I think the PM should have his holiday but then I think we need an election. We need change in this country and that’s how change should come about.” Hat-tip: Politics Home

Peter Hoskin

Are the numbers against the would-be leaders?

In his victory speech a few hours ago, John Mason exclaimed that “this SNP victory is not just a political earthquake, it is off the Richter scale”. It’s hard to disagree. After all, overturning a 13,507 majority is impressive stuff, whichever way you slice it. So impressive, in fact, that it can only reinforce the idea that pretty much any Labour seat is now a viable target for opposition parties. Which creates a particularly nasty conundrum for Labour MPs. Ousting Brown will become increasingly attractive, as he leads them towards oblivion in 2010. But many of the names being bandied around to replace him have smaller majorities than that overturned

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A stunning victory

It’s official – the SNP has taken Glasgow East with a majority of 365 in what is, quite simply, a stunning victory. [And quite a result for Cameron, he’s pushed the Liberal Democrats into third place, getting real traction in a constituency where Tory vote is normally no higher than staff members and blood relatives]. This is most momentous Scottish by-election since Hillhead in 1982. The SNP’s greatest victory since the Hamilton by-election which put it on the map in 1967. And a result which has fought off very tough competition to be Gordon Brown’s worst setback yet. Westminster will want to know tomorrow what this means for Gordon Brown. The question

Peter Hoskin

A recount in Glasgow East?

The Beeb are reporting that there may be a recount in Glasgow East – perhaps a sign that this vote really is extremely close.  It could well be a very long night.  Stay tuned. P.S. How close? Jon Sopel’s said that the SNP majority may currently stand at around 354. P.P.S. The word is that certain parties are worried – rightly or wrongly – that votes for Margaret Curran may have been counted for the similarly-named Frances Curran, the SSP candidate.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Are the SNP about to win despite their candidate?

The SNP crowd is on the pitch – they think it’s all over. And the latest speculation I have picked up – amazingly – is a four-figure SNP majority. If the SNP do win, one thing should go on the record – John Mason, their candidate, was perhaps the worst of the main four candidates. He could hardly ever turn up without Alex Salmond by his side, doing the talking. He’s just turned up to the count, fists in the air victoriously and hugging colleagues in a way that you just don’t do at a by-election – until you win. The Tory, Davena Rankin, could have come straight from David Cameron’s

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

If it’s the economy stupid, then Labour is doomed at the next election

Defeat is written all over Douglas Alexander’s face on the BBC News Channel, and SNP deputy leader Nicola “Gnasher” Sturgeon is trying very, very hard to contain her grin. Mentally, she’s punching the air. What jumps out at me is that Labour’s intends to blame defeat on the economy. But can someone explain to me why that makes it okay? The economy is bad now, but will get much worse next year. If the bad economy means people want to whack Labour, then just think how the general election would go.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The word is that Labour has lost

I have now spoken to three people in Glasgow with the same news: Labour has lost. It was 42% turnout, a monster turnout – given that 48% voted in the general election. It was the sort of turnout one normally associates with a constituency which fancies giving someone a kicking. Now I’m not calling this for the SNP, but I thought I’d share with CoffeeHousers the message which political journalists are sending to each other right now. Also word that the Tories may beat the LibDems into third place: an unexpected result which would be tremendous news for Cameron.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Have the forgotten voters of Glasgow East triggered a political earthquake?

You don’t mean a thing if your seat’s not a swing – that is the rule which governs Britain’s constituency voting system. Its worst aspect is the emergence of modern day rotten boroughs, where no mainstream party votes. The more I hear from Glasgow, the more likely it looks that the forgotten voters of Glasgow East might – just might – trigger that political earthquake. If it does, it will be for a simple reason: it’s difficult for Labour to turn out your voters if you have never really bothered to find out who they are, or where they live. Difficult to find out at short notice, if your grassroots

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Tackling poverty | 25 July 2008

Today’s march on poverty – with church leaders at the front; Gordon Brown giving the sermon – overlooks an important point. Thanks to global capitalism, we are living in a golden age of poverty reduction: never in human history has the West’s wealth been shared more quickly with the developing world, and to such incredible effect. According to the World Bank, the number in extreme poverty has dropped from 40% in 1981 to 21% in 2001. Poverty has fallen most where capitalism has done best. That is why the bulk of the drop in world poverty is done by India and China. “China prices” mean cheap goods for us –

Thursday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

How Osborne should manage the budget

Reading George Osborne’s responses to Coffee House has made clearer my own advice to him: save money by decelerating NHS and education budget increases. Max out with rhetoric about “we will outspend Labour” and say “every penny of Brown’s spending will be locked in” etc. It will all be true. But simply increase at very low rates – 0.5% to 1% in real terms. By 2010, with unemployment and repossessions soaring, the public will be in the mood to hear that the government is also tightening its belt. Given that the NHS has so little to show for the doubling of its budget, it will hardly notice if it is

Peter Hoskin

Osborne responds – Part I

Here are George Osborne’s answers to the first five questions put forward by CoffeeHousers: Tiberius “I understand the reasons for not committing to upfront tax cuts, but there are bound to be some savings available from reform. Do you have any idea at this stage how much could be available, and where would you seek to allocate any such savings?” Thanks Tiberius. Our judgement call two years ago not to commit to upfront tax cuts, in spite of pressure from many people, has clearly been vindicated by events. When it comes to efficiency savings, we have made it clear that cutting wasteful spending is a key part of our plans.

Peter Hoskin

What the Tories think of James Purnell

Ok, so it seems like you CoffeeHousers generally don’t agree with our appraisal of James Purnell (exemplified by Fraser’s article “Meet James Purnell: the best hope Labour has of avoiding disaster”). But what does the Tory party think of the work and pensions secretary?  Here’s a hefty quote from Tara Hamilton-Miller’s excellent article in the New Statesman today, outlining just that: “Back in the office, Tories have been checking out James Purnell, the new young buck many suggest could be the saviour of Brown’s crumbling party. The Central Office staff don’t get it. Says one Tory aide: “He’s a boy. I’m not convinced his own party buy him. Surely this is a case of hype

Peter Hoskin

What will tomorrow look like?

It’s by-election day today in Glasgow East, and you can expect frequent updates and analysis from the Coffee House team.  At the moment, the consensus is that it’s too close to call.  As Fraser said yesterday, the numbers suggest a narrow Labour victory, but – if you factor in low turnout and the mobilising power of the nationalists – that could be overturned quite easily. If the SNP do come out on top, then the British political landscape could start looking very different, very quickly.  Ominously for the Prime Minister, Steve Richards (who’s written the latest Spectator politics column, available here) reports in today’s Independent that Labour ministers may already

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Alan Johnson should save it for Brown

This must be the opposite of “rapid reaction”. Some two weeks late, Labour is responding to David Cameron’s speech in Glasgow. It is Alan Johnson who is trying to divine some clear, red water: “Before we evoke the Victorian notion of the deserving and undeserving poor we should take a moment to consider how complex these issues really are. Just as the government has a moral duty to tackle poverty and exclusion, so it also has a duty to address obesity. But this is not a licence to hector and lecture people on how they should spend their lives.” Consider this for a moment. A Labour government whose leader has

Peter Hoskin

Could this escalate?

Today’s Standard reports on an accusation that David Cameron is giving Tory donors free publicity by staging photo-calls at the factories they own. Of course, there may be nothing in it – and it’s hardly at the level of cash-for-honours. But, at the very least, it’s a reminder that Cameron needs to be very careful indeed. He projects high standards, and often talks about a “new politics” which does away with the less edifying aspects of Westminster politics. Good for him. But it means that the Tory leader could face a greater public backlash than other politicians, should he ever appear to be part of the problem rather than the solution.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The latest from Glasgow East

Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn’t a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying “too close to call”? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts: 1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn’t need to. I can believe this – I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.  2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign – ie, even if they

Peter Hoskin

More poll cheer for the Tories

Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson’s got the latest Ipsos MORI poll results.  They have a hefty, 20-point lead for the Tories.  Here are the numbers in full: Tories on 47 percent (up 2 from last month); Labour on 27 percent (down 2); and the Lib Dems 15 percent (down 1).