Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Has anyone seen this man?

Update: In the comments, Emily points to a BBC interview with Ed Balls that I missed. So, I owe Mr Balls an apology. However, I would be even more impressed if Balls went and did one of the big set-piece interviews this weekend.   One of the least appealing aspects of the Brownites is how they scarper at the first sign of trouble. So last night on Question Time we had Hazel Blears—who various Brownites were happy to brief was about to be dropped from the cabinet before the locals, on the BBC’s election night special the Labour representative was Chris Bryant who is only a PPS and was hopelessly outgunned by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Labour need ideas…

Clive points out that John Prescott is a late addition to the line-up at the Festival of Ideas in Bristol. Maybe, Prezza is going to reinvent himself as the new Labour philosopher.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Not so capital

Before we get back to discussing Crewe and Nantwich and what happens next, I’m going to have a little rant about London traffic and the price of taxis. This morning, I was doing in an interview near Marble Arch and then going to have lunch at half twelve with Clive Davis on Greek Street. The interview finished about 12:15 so to be sure I’d be on time, I decided to hail a cab. 25 minutes and £13.80 later, I arrived in Greek Street. Now, I’m not quire sure whether I’m more irritated by it taking 25 minutes to go 2.4 miles or that it cost me £5.75 per mile. It

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

No more need to worry about Labour’s long term plans

I am now in sunny Afghanistan, where we woke up to the Crewe result. This puts thing into a new perspective. It’s becoming rapidly clear that we need not worry about the many long-term plans of this government (abolish A-Levels, reform pensions, identity cards and the like). But what of the commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan once Labour is gone? Liam Fox has spoken of the need to either spend more or deploy less.  We’re still waiting to find which is to be the Tory answer.    

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What we know now

Here are a few things that I think we’ve learnt from last night’s result: 1). The Tories are now the best closers in British politics: In London, the local elections and last night the Tories did significantly better than the final opinion polls suggested they would. This suggests that the Tory ground game is now good enough to add a couple of points to their score. At the next election, this could make the difference between a slim and solid Tory majority. 2). ‘Tory hatred’ no longer moves votes: The Labour campaign desperately tried to whip up prejudice against a public school educated, lawyer who looked and sounded like a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?

Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely: “Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even – unlikely – if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?

If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing. A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tory majority of 7,860

The Returning Officer has just declared the official result and Edward Timpson is the new MP for Crewe and Nantwich. This is a massive defeat for Labour and will make many Labour MPs distinctly fearful about their own prospects.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Final result sometime after 2am

No one is disputing that Labour has taken a mighty kicking tonight but we are going to have to wait until a little bit after 2am for the formal declaration. Turnout was high at 58 percent, but the word is that Tory Nantwich turned out in force while Labour Crewe stayed at home. This suggests that the Labour campaign had the opposite effect from intended–turning out the Tory base.  

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will the recess save Brown?

The one consolation for Gordon Brown about tonight’s result is that the MPs are all leaving Westminster for the Whitsun recess and so the opportunities to plot will be limited. Alternatively, MPs could get it in the neck from their constituents and local parties about how bad things are and return to London steeled to the task ahead.

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour’s expectations management strategy fails again

If there is one aspect where the Tories still feel that they lag behind Labour it is expectations management. Tory staffers feel frustrated that Labour succeeds so easily in getting its worst case scenarios into the journalistic blood stream. But once again things are going to be a lot worse for Labour than even they though. Earlier in the week, Labour were spinning that a defeat by 3,000 or less would be a decent result for them. Whether the Tory majority is going to be big enough to ‘force the bastard out’ remains to be seen.  

James Forsyth James Forsyth

It is a now a question of how big the Tory majority will be

It appears pretty much certain that the Tories have won tonight’s by-election and reports are that they might have done so by a truly staggering margin. If the margins that are being discussed are accurate, and it is likely that they are, then this really could endanger Brown’s position. It seems that tonight is going to be another triumph for Eric Pickles and the Tory campaign team. Stay tuned.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Basra, a city filled with hope

Basra, Iraq Two years ago when Des Browne came here they wouldn’t let him out of the car. Now, he can do a walkabout in downtown Basra. The liberation on March 25th, when the Iraqi army’s Charge of the Knights liberated the city from the Shi’ite militias, has transformed the situation here. When Prime Minister Maliki announced the Charge of the Knights, Muqtada al-Sadr mocked it as the charge of the mice. But is has turned into the biggest surprise successes of the war. Maliki is making his army’s presence felt in Basra–there are check-points with the Iraqi flag on them all over the city—and he has gone from zero

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour is out of ideas

Westminster might be waiting for the voters of Crewe and Nantwich to cast their ballots, but we have already learned one thing from the campaign: Labour’s policy cupboard is bare. That Labour’s hopes of hanging onto this normally safe seat rest solely on hoping for a sympathy vote for the daughter of the popular, recently deceased MP and on caricaturing the Tory candidate as a toff shows that no one in the Labour campaign team can think of a compelling, positive reason to vote for the party. Martin Bright nails this point in his New Statesman column when he asks what would someone on the left see if they looked

Peter Hoskin

Are the Tories in landslide mode?

We’ve just uploaded the content from the latest magazine on to the website, and I’d suggest you read Fraser’s politics column ahead of the results from Crewe and Nantwich tonight.  In it, Fraser writes of how the Tories are unofficially shifting to a “landslide strategy”.  They now regard a whole host of marginal seats as “in the bag”, so party resources, cash and effort are being diverted to those seats which were considered “unwinnable” before Cameron took charge.  Crewe’s something of a pilot for this approach, so the result is of extreme importance to Cameron & Co.  What do CoffeeHousers make of the strategy?  Is it a masterstroke?  Or a risk too far?  As always, have your

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Great Expectations

Politics Home’s Insider panel’s benchmarks for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election give us a pretty good idea of how the pundit class would treat various results tonight. If the Tory majority is over 4,000, the panel thinks, that Labour would go into a tailspin and it would be confirmed that the Tories were on their way back to Downing Street. So, if the Tories do win tonight—watch the majority. Brown can probably weather a fairly narrow loss, but a thumping defeat would take us into a whole new political stage. 

Peter Hoskin

Brown losing friends. Rapidly

You can add another entry to the list of those who don’t like Gordon Brown: the unions.  Over the past few days we’ve been tracking growning union disgruntlement -and the possibility of a Summer of Strikes – over on Trading Floor.  And now that mood’s been encapsulated in a speech delivered by Brendan Barber, the TUC’s general secretary, last night.  He certainly didn’t pull his punches – the Government needs to “reconfigure its DNA”, as it “has not been clear about what it wants to be – and where it now wants to go”. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see who Brown’s allies are.  The unions don’t like him; business

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Graph of the Day

Courtesy of Danny Finkelstein: The red line shows Labour’s approval rating since 2005, the blue John Major’s 1992-97 ministry. Nuff said. (The bulge was the brief Brown Summer in which, helped by not being Tony Blair and his calm response to terrorism, Brown was for a moment or two actually quite popular.)