Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Gordon has reason to fear Cherie’s pen

Following on from Fraser: if I was Gordon, the news that Cherie is writing her memoirs would be one pre-conference headline I would not be happy about. The Campbell diaries were quite openly and systematically edited to avoid embarrassment to Prime Minister Brown. I would be amazed if Tony Blair’s autobiography is an exercise in score-settling. First, as I wrote in my Sunday Telegraph column at the weekend, the two men are getting on better than they have for many years. The arch-Brownite Ed Balls, once a ferocious critic of the ex-PM, has been telling colleagues that he hopes his new report on the prospective economic regeneration of the Palestinian

Join the debate

Tonight, The Spectator and Intelligence Squared are hosting the first in a series of debates. This evening’s topic is Zimbabwe and an all star cast of speakers will be debating the motion ‘Britain has failed Zimbabwe’ at the Royal Geographic Society here in London.  If you can’t make the debate in person, never fear. We’ll be broadcasting it live on the site via this link from 6.45 pm onwards and a recording of the debate will be available to listen to from 9pm. Lloyd Evans, The Spectator’s theatre critic, will also be penning a review of the event which we’ll be posting on the site later this evening. Once the

Coffee House Blog Roll

Andrew Neil’s blog (Daily Politics) Archbishop Cranmer Bagehot’s Notebook Benedict Brogan Ben Smith Boulton and Co. Comment Central (£) ConservativeHome Conservative Voices Dizzy Thinks EU Referendum Euroseptic FP Passport FT Westminster Blog Guido Fawkes Harry’s Place Iain Martin John Redwood, MP John Rentoul Jonathan Martin LabourList Left Foot Forward Marbury Mark Steyn Muse, the Apollo blog National Review’s The Corner Nick Robinson Norm Blog Norman Tebbit No Sacred Cows (Toby Young) Our Kingdom Paul Waugh Political Betting PoliticsHome Politics on Toast Resolution Foundation blog Robert Peston The Spectator Arts Blog The Spectator Book Blog The Staggers Stephen Pollard Telegraph Blogs Tory Radio UK Polling Report

James Forsyth

What Gordon told Paddy

Michael White has the scoop on a classic exchange between Gordon Brown and Paddy Ashdown when Brown was trying to persuade Ashdown to come into his big tent: When Paddy Ashdown turned down a cabinet post – Northern Ireland – he explained: “I can’t support your attitudes towards civil liberties.” GB is supposed to have asked: “But could you keep quiet about them?” No. It is easy to see how Ashdown resisted this seduction attempt. But as White points out, the interesting question is what will happen when the various Tories and Lib Dems who were vain enough to accept Brown’s blandishments realise that he is taking advantage of them.

These polls really are awful for the Tories

The details of the polls this morning make for even grimmer reading for the Tories than the headline figures. Populus reports that, astonishingly, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling’s lead over David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy has actually grown in the past ten days from 34 points to 38. While the ICM poll finds that Labour is now ahead on all nine key issues. The lead on the economy is a whopping 25 percent and the Tory advantage on health, which was always more a function of dissatisfaction with Labour’s handling of the NHS than anything else, has now disappeared to be replaced by a 13 point Labour

Tories down by eight in new ICM poll

The latest poll news isn’t good for David Cameron. ICM has the Tories eight points behind Labour and Cameron with the worst personal ratings of all the party leaders. The Lib Dems will be cheered to find themselves hitting that psychologically important 20% mark while Labour will be buoyed by reaching the 40% level. Grim as this news may be for the Tories, and the word is that there is more bad news to come, there is no need for panic. The Northern Rock crisis has probably killed off any remaining prospect of an Autumn election—if the Tories couldn’t make the idea that Brown is going now because everything is

How do you solve a problem like Ming?

Last night’s Newsnight interview with Ming summed up the problems the Lib Dems face. First of all, Ming only got 15 minutes at the end of the show compared to the full length, star attraction treatment that Brown and Cameron got. Second, the interview revolved around the Lib Dem’s leadership troubles—a trend Campbell exacerbated by choosing to quibble over every piece of polling data his inquisitors challenged him with. Third, Ming’s performance was poor. (Although, to be fair, he was much better on the Today Programme this morning.) The conventional wisdom is that the Lib Dems can’t afford to get rid of two leaders inside a parliament; especially as an

Fraser Nelson

Guess how much tax the rich pay?

Where would the Liberal Democrats be without the insinuation that the rich are let off lightly by the tax system? But I would like to let CoffeeHousers in on what seems to be a secret. The richest 10% actually stump up the majority (53%) of tax collected in Britain. And the richest 1% stump up a staggering 22% of the tax collected – twice their share of earnings. This is a statistic which should warm the heart of the most ardent redistributionist. It’s all in this Revenue and Customs excel sheet here – scroll to the bottom. And why do we have this situation? Not because of anything Labour’s done.

Darling’s rocky guarantee

The government’s unprecedented decision to guarantee every bank deposit in the country should be enough to stop the queues outside Northern Rock branches and any further meltdown in the financial system. However, no one has covered themselves in glory during this episode. Adam Applegarth, the chief executive of Northern Rock, has delivered a master class in how not to handle a crisis, The Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority have between them dropped the ball and the government has looked far from sure of itself. Indeed it is noticeable how despite Alistair Darling’s shaky performances, Gordon Brown has still kept away.   One of the many questions that remains

Free advice to Ming: Don’t declare yourself a failure

Mike Smithson has an interesting piece up at Political Betting arguing that if the Lib Dems are to be taken seriously by the media they need their very own Campbell or Coulson. Certainly, when you read about Ming Campbell declaring in a conference QandA “Well of course I’m a failure” the case for some proper media handling seems inarguable. (Yes, I know it was a joke—but when you’re in Ming’s position you don’t make such statements even in jest). So what I was wondering was, if you were Lib Dem press chief what would you tell the party to go big on? Personally, I think they should be hitting Brown

James Forsyth

Lib Dem conference gets bumped down the new agenda

The predicament of the Lib Dems is summed up by the media coverage, or lack thereof, of their conference. Looking at the papers today, the Lib Dem conference seems to be about, at best, the fourth item on the news agenda. The worrying thing for the Lib Dems is that this isn’t likely to change as the week goes on. It is hard to see Northern Rock shifting from the front pages and if it does there is bound to be another twist in the McCann saga to capture public attention. Perhaps, though, the audience for the conferences isn’t the general public. As Sam Coates points out, the Lib Dems

James Forsyth

More bad poll news for the Lib Dem

The ComRes poll in today’s Independent will not improve the mood of grumpy Lib Dem delegates in Brighton. The poll finds that the party is down at 15 percent, a 7 point drop since the last election. If there was a uniform swing at the next election it would be the Lib Dems who would find themselves decapitated, losing their next generation of leaders—Nick Clegg, Chris Huhne and David Laws.

Ming on the back foot

The YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has got the Lib Dem conference off on the wrong foot for Ming Campbell. The poll finds that only four percent of voters think that he is the most impressive of the three party leaders. Even among Lib Dem supporters, Gordon Brown outscores Campbell and 65 percent of Lib Dem voters think that they would be better off with a younger leader. While the party’s overall rating of 15 percent shows that it has lost a third of its support since the last election. As Fraser writes in this week’s magazine, the conference has effectively turned into a venue for the two young pretenders,

Darling stumbles

Darling is losing his grip. He got his figures wrong twice on the World This Weekend and his exasperated stuttering hardly inspired confidence at a time when it is so badly needed. His job is to exude calm and savoir faire, for the benefit of anxious savers listening at home. Instead, he went on about how David Cameron was once a special adviser to Norman Lamont. Yes, the credit crunch started in America but why is the UK so exposed? This is the question ministers must answer. For years, the Tories have taken a defeatist attitude thinking Brown’s reputation with the economy was untouchable. Now is their chance. PS Cameron

How the Tories could get the public to go green

The YouGov poll in Sunday Times which shows that Labour is five points ahead also contains some instructive data on the public’s reactions to the policies suggested by the Tory Quality of Life policy review group. Whenever there is a genuine combination of carrots and sticks proposed there is popular support for the ideas. So, 80 percent of people favour raising taxes on gas guzzling cars while reducing those on low emission vehicles. Equally, 83 percent support lowering stamp duty on energy efficient homes. By contrast, 70 percent oppose charging people to park in supermarket car parks and 54 percent disagree with the idea of putting VAT on short haul

Why John Reid is stepping down

Earlier today, like many people around Westminster, I received a text message from John Reid letting me know that he will be standing down as an MP at the next election. As sorry as I am – John was an invigorating presence on the parliamentary and Whitehall scene, and one of the few ministers who fully grasped how the world changed on 9/11 – the news does not come as an enormous surprise. For a start, he is blissfully happy in his marriage and had always talked wistfully of a time when he would be able to devote himself fully to his wife (‘I’m a happy bastard, me’). But he

How government and the Bank of England exacerbated the credit crunch

The credit crunch is global. So why has there only been a run on the banks in Britain? Alistair Darling suggests Northern Rock is a mere domino in a chain which started in America. But John Redwood’s blog points out that the first domino was knocked over by the clumsy fingers of the Labour government. Only in Britain did the central bank refuse to boost liquidity by lending at a non-penalty rate (unlike the ECB, the Fed, the Norwegians, Swiss, Russians etc).   The next bit sounds nerdy, so was the ERM crisis so stay with me. Exacerbated by the BoE’s intransigence, the de facto cost of bank borrowing, three-month

Might Brown’s tea-time stunt backfire?

On Thursday I thought that Gordon Brown had pulled off a masterstroke by inviting Margaret Thatcher to tea at Downing Street, but now I’m not so sure. Marina Hyde’s column is a good guide to the shifting reactions to it and is well worth reading. As Hyde writes, “This piece of gesture politics – even that description flatters – reveals nothing more nor less than a total contempt for the voter. What is the slackjawed electorate supposed to divine from this cynical dumb show? Perhaps that Gordon is above anything so unseemly as ideological difference, or that some sort of tea-based transubstantiation has given him new prime ministerial gravitas, or

Only a Lib Dem could get it this wrong

Sir Menzies Campbell’s call for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU is a desperate bid to preserve party unity on the eve of what may be his last conference as Lib Dem leader. No less than Harold Wilson in 1974-5, he seeks to avert a party split by backing a plebiscite. The trouble is that the question Ming wants to pose – In or Out – is a complete irrelevance (except for Ukip voters). The controversy over the re-heated EU Constitution, now stripped of grandiose language but substantially the same as it was in 2004, has nothing whatsoever to do with membership of Europe. It is about trust