Politics Archives

Saturday

29 Sep 2007

Frank Luntz

Don’t go greener or get meaner, Mr Cameron

It’s been two years since I sat down with 30 potential Conservative voters for BBC2’s Newsnight and asked them whom they’d like to follow into the next election. Their answer was nearly unanimous: the heretofore unknown and obscure David Cameron. And it’s been a year since I sat down with 30 potential Labour voters and asked whom they wanted to follow Tony Blair. Their answer: the colourful and avuncular John Reid. Apparently the party wasn’t listening. A few days ago, with a new Prime Minister approaching his 100th day, I once again started a Newsnight conversation with the elusive but essential swing voters to ask whether it was time for

Nigel Lawson

Sorry, minister: The Spectator is right about the EU Treaty

There are two reasons why Jim Murphy, the Europe minister, is wrong and The Spectator right about the question of a referendum on the European Union Reform Treaty (‘The Spectator is wrong to call for an EU referendum’, 22 September). The first is that the government gave the people a solemn pledge that it would hold one before there was any question of ratifying the European Union Constitutional Treaty, and anyone who takes the trouble (and it does involve a wearisome amount of trouble) to study both documents will find that, to all intents and purposes, the content is the same. While different politicians from different countries state, for their

Rod Liddle

I blame Mandelson and the EU for propping up Burma’s wicked regime

The EU has not helped Aung San Suu Kyi’s cause It has been a long-held view of mine that most of the evil in the world today can be traced back, somehow, to Peter Mandelson. People tell me that this is irrational and warped. And yet, as the Burmese soldiers sprayed those protesting monks with tear gas and bunged them in the back of paddy wagons to be taken God knows where and for God knows how long, the EU Trade Commissioner’s spectral form once again swam towards me from inside my television set. We are all worked up and worried about Burma, quite rightly, because of its appalling record

Friday

28 Sep 2007

James Forsyth

Is Osborne set to commit the Tories to the abolition of inheritance tax?

The Taxpayers’ Alliance is reporting that George Osborne will pledge to abolish inheritance tax at Blackpool. The TPA believes that the proposal that Osborne will unveil will be very similar to the one proposed by the Tax Reform Commission. Inheritance tax as we know it will be abolished and replaced by a new kind of capital gains tax which treats death as equivalent to a sale of assets. Primary residences will be exempt from all tax. But all other assets will be subject to capital gains tax of up to 40%. Though, there will be taped relief through which this could fall to zero for assets owned for ten years.

James Forsyth

Might Salmond stand against Brown?

Iain Dale has a fascinating story up about a rumour that Alex Salmond might stand against Gordon Brown at the next general election. I’d love to see such a contest, Salmond clearly gets under Brown’s skin and the campaign would be great knock about. But I fear that it is unlikely. Considering that Brown won with 58 percent of the vote in 2005, Salmond wouldn’t have a realistic chance of winning and, as Iain notes, running as essentially a protest candidate would undermine Salmond’s standing. If Salmond did, for some reason, go for it, it would force Brown to spend far more time in his own constituency than he’d like. It’d

James Forsyth

Brown to decide by Sunday on snap poll

Gordon Brown will decide whether or not to call an election this weekend, The Guardian reports today. His aides, apparently, now think he is more likely to go for it than not. An announcement on October the ninth and an election on the first of November is the favoured option. This would allow Brown to announce the handover of Basra province to the Iraqis and might allow Alistair Darling to deliver the comprehensive spending review and pre-budget report before Brown goes to the country. The risk for Brown of an election on November 1st is not so much turnout but the fact that he needs to go and sign off

Thursday

27 Sep 2007

Alex Massie

So, Mr (or Mrs) Candidate…

Radley Balko has some questions he’d like to ask the Presidential candidates. I particularly liked: Do you think an atheist could be president? Do you think an atheist should be? Assuming you generally agreed with an atheist on more issues than the alternative candidates in a given election, would you vote for one? and America by far and away has the highest prison population in the world. Does this concern you? Are there any federal crimes you feel should be repealed from the books, or devolved to the states? and Would you support a sunset provision requiring Congress to revisit and re-pass each law after five years? Chances of these

James Forsyth

The UN is not a moral authority

I never understand why people hold the UN up as some great moral arbiter. Far from being some vehicle for the world’s collective good intentions, it is a classic balance of power institution whose main aim is to avoid a conflict between the great powers—and damn the consequences for the little people. Just look at how it is set up so that nothing can happen without the unanimous consent of the five permanent members of the Security Council. While this might have been a necessary evil during the Cold War, given that any direct confrontation between the super powers could have turned nuclear very quickly, it is far less defensible today. The

Fraser Nelson

What else Brown takes from America

I loved the Fink’s tracing of passages in Brown’s speech back to those of American politicians. But why stop at rhetoric? Brown’s policies are burgled from America too. He used to go to America for ideas in the way that Colleen McLaughlin goes there for clothes. Tax credits were a Clinton device. Sure Start nursery centres are a (failed) copy of Head Start. Even New Labour as a title apes the New Democrats. He bills his international aid package as a Marshall Plan. His Youth Volunteering is explicitly modelled on Americorps. The only thing which isn’t American is his tax burden.

James Forsyth

Labour gets ready to go, but cabinet remains divided on timing

The chances of an autumn poll just increased with the news that Labour is hiring key election staff. Now, this doesn’t mean Gordon is definitely going but it does show that he wants to keep the option open. Oddly enough, I think this is quite good news for David Cameron: if he has a good conference and there isn’t an election, he’ll be able to claim credit for frightening Brown off. Interestingly enough, cabinet ministers are now openly weighing in on whether Gordon should go to the country this year or not. Hazel Blears is, unsurprisingly, in favour and full of enthusiasm: “When’s the election? Who knows? But I say

Matthew Dancona

Boris wins Tory mayoral primary

It was the Spec wot won it….well, not quite. But I like to think that our ferocious, implacable support for Boris played a small part in persuading London voters to choose him as their Tory mayoral candidate by an overwhelming margin (75 per cent of the 20,019 votes). Then again, what else were they going to do? My venerated predecessor as Editor is a giant of a politician, and his selection as the Conservative contender was – with the greatest respect to his rivals – never much in doubt. Here, at last, is a candidate who not only has the charisma and the policies to take on Ken and win.

Wednesday

26 Sep 2007

Alex Massie

Brown does a Biden

Danny Finkelstein notices what I should have noticed. Curses. Anyway, the Hand of Shrum was all over the Great Clunking Fist’s speech to the Labour party conference: How could I have missed this? The heavy influence of Bob Shrum on Gordon Brown’s speech. How could I have missed it? First of all there are plenty of phrases pretty directly lifted from speeches made by Shrum clients, many of which he admits he wrote. Here are just a few, there may well be many more: Al Gore 2000 nomination acceptance speech: I know my own imperfections. I know that sometimes people say I’m too serious, that I talk too much substance

James Forsyth

A vintage split

Nick Robinson has a great post up on the generation gap opening up among the cabinet about whether or not to go to the polls now. As Robinson points out, the young bucks want to go this year, increase the Labour majority and dish the Tories for good. Indeed, if the Labour majority did rise to three figures—as the current polls predict it would, the Tory party would turn in on itself with such force that it would take a generation to recover. If you’re a Miliband, Balls, Alexander or Purnell the prospect of spending the prime of your political life without any serious external opponents must seem worth the risk that

Fraser Nelson

What Osborne meant

My interview with George Osborne in tomorrow’s Spectator has caused much interest, particularly his contrasting of himself with the “uber modernisers”. This phrase has travelled so fast that a Cabinet member I just met for coffee in Bournemouth had already heard it. “A split story right before conference,” he grinned. “Just what they need. Osborne doesn’t just acknowledge a faction, but christens one”. Not quite fair. It was hardly a coded attack on Cameron, whom he heaped praise on. George was just stating the obvious, making it refreshingly clear where he personally stands in a party which is openly in the middle of a policy debate. Such candour isn’t heard

Fraser Nelson

What is the gamble for Brown?

Much discussion over what Ed Balls meant when he said that the “gamble” was to delay the election, not hold it now. What could he mean? The only interpretation being given is that he thinks his chances of winning will increase from the 11% lead of today. But I’d like to offer another one. Can you see Brown in November 2011 on a podium at a conference pledging to lead Britain until 2015 or 2016? Nor can I. I suspect that this master strategist knows this, and knows he has only one election in him. He’ll have seen from Blair what happens when that election is won. One’s authority collapses.

Matthew Dancona

Balls’s independent thinking

The news that Ed Balls is to scrap the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority and replace it with an independent body prompts two thoughts. First, Mr Balls is showing real promise as the man in charge of the nation’s schools, and will be kept on his toes by his splendid Tory Shadow, Michael Gove. This is an excellent measure, and one that might just save the debauched currency of public examinations from slipping into Weimar oblivion. Mr Balls was the co-author with Gordon Brown of the decision to hand control of interest rates to the Bank of England: he understands that trust follows when politicians step aside. Second, the proposal illustrates

Tuesday

25 Sep 2007

Alex Massie

Gordon Brown’s Best of British

Earlier this year I wrote a piece for TNR’s website suggesting that Gordon Brown’s Scottishness might become a problem for him. Well, with Labour riding high in the polls and talk of an autumn election running rife you might think that this was overblown nonsense. Maybe so. But don’t take my word for it, have a gander at the speech Brown gave to the Labour party conference yesterday. For all the talk of change and renewal and driving the country forward, by far and away the most notable element of Brown’s speech was the way he wrapped himself in the Union Flag. He mentioned “Britain”, “British” or “the British people”

James Forsyth

Can Brown resist an 11 point lead?

A new YouGov poll puts Labour 11 points ahead and further increases the pressure on Gordon Brown to call an election in the next few days. There’s little doubt that these numbers will strike fear into the hearts of Conservatives. The consolation for them is that this is about as bad as it gets. The survey was taken just after Brown had spoken at conference; the moment one would expect to be the high-water mark of Labour support. There are even some encouraging numbers in there for the Tories. Only 29 percent believe that it would be in Britain’s best interests to hold an election this year—suggesting that there might

Fraser Nelson

On to Blackpool

When I zipped through security, I knew something was up. The conference here is almost dead. The normal buzz of a Tuesday has vanished, even if Brown’s up for a soft focus Q&A with Mariella Frostrup tomorrow few are hanging around to see it. Alan Johnson’s NHS speech was underwhelming. David Miliband’s speech was full of Blair-style verbless sentences, which made me feel rather nostalgic. But has divided the audience between those who found it odd, and those who saw in him the next leader. But 11 point Labour lead in YouGov’s poll has moved the gossip at the conference on to one topic – what will Cameron do now?

Fraser Nelson

What they’re talking about in the bars of Bournemouth

Here’s a recap of the gossip around the bars last night.. 1. Early election: Perhaps Brown started this hare running to wrong-foot the Tories, then came to take it seriously himself. Now the hype is so big, that perhaps Brown can’t stop it and will look cowardly if he doesn’t go now. He’s leaning towards a later election. 2. Bible: Plenty jokes about witch trials, Bible branding and Wicker Man style politics. “It made me feel like I was back in the Western Isles” says one fellow Scot down here. But obviously its part of the Brown brand. Hardly a day goes by without him reminding us that his