Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Why Cameron should stand on the centre ground

Geoffrey Wheatcroft has a bizarre piece in today’s Guardian attacking Dave for hugging the “centre-ground” and for surrounding himself with a Blairesque “junta”. Too much energy is expended on defining – usually as a prelude to trashing – the concept of the “centre-ground”: it means no more or less than the political mainstream, what animates voters and makes them worried. Thus, the “centre-ground” should include a civilised response to people’s concerns over immigration, as much as an attention to environmental issues. Cameron, by the way, is perfectly well aware of this. As for Geoffrey’s attack on individuals such as Andy Coulson, Dave’s new communications director, and Michael Gove, his confidant

Fraser Nelson

A few bright spots for the Tories

As Matt suggested, I’m getting some stick from Tories here in the Commons – mainly ones who have just seen today’s Spectator cover (Peter Brooke’s brilliant cartoon of Cameron about to be run over a bus) and asking if I’ve gone all Brutus. Quite the reverse. I merely sought to dangle regicidal Tories over the precipice and ask them to look down. Yes, things are grim. The Thames is still rising, the Daily Telegraph has a horrible poll tomorrow and the markets are crashing. But there are a few reasons for Tories to be cheerful:- 1. The Daily Mail is getting bored being so supportive of Brown, and its leader today

The will to win

“The present Mayor of London”: that is how Our Candidate refers, with terse menace, to Ken Livingstone, in today’s Telegraph. If I were Ken, those five words would give me pause. As charming as The Candidate certainly is, never doubt he has the steel to win.

The Tories have no plan b

Fraser’s piece is already making waves. The reason for this is that it poses the question that all Tories are thinking about but dare not voice – not least because they do not know the answer to the question: “If not Dave, then who?” To lose a fourth successive general election, as the polls suggest the Conservatives are on course to do, would be a savage blow to any party. The years 1992-94 (post-Kinnock, pre-Blair) have been airbrushed out of Labour Party history, but they should act as a terrible warning to those Tories who think that a bit of creative disunity now is what the party needs. As David

What if Cameron fell under a bus?

Fraser has a cracking piece in tomorrow’s magazine on who’d  take over if something happened to Dave. As Fraser reports, there’s no clear alternative—something that Cameron has reason to be thankful for considering the feeding frenzy currently going on in the Westminster village. I called William Hills earlier and asked them for the odds on who would be the next Tory leader and they make for interesting reading. William Hague 9/4 fav. David Davis 5/1 George Osborne and Andrew Lansley 10/1 Liam Fox and Alan Duncan 12/1 Nick Herbert 14/1 Theresa Villiers 16/1 Some other interesting odds: Ed Vaizey 20/1, Malcolm Rifkind, Ken Clarke and Julie Kirkbride 25/1, Michael Gove 33/1

Fraser Nelson

Common mockery

It was almost like David Cameron was being bullied by the Commons today. When he stood up, all MPs cheered – the kind of sarcastic cheer they normally reserve for Ming Campbell. When he mentioned the floods and “people in this country are discussing this issue” an almighty laugh went up saying “what would you know, you were inspecting Rwandan latrines yesterday.” When Cameron spoke about Europe, the Labour MPs roared with approval saying “we’ve forced you to lurch to the right. Game over”. Overall it was bad for Cameron – even Ming Campbell mocked him. His ill-judged Rwandan trip stopped him venting fury on behalf of submerged Middle England

The boy who drank

Today’s papers carry a rather exasperated quote from the publicist of Daniel Radcliffe, the young actor who plays Harry Potter. Responding to questions about whether Radcliffe had, shock horror, been drinking at his 18th birthday party: “The question as to whether Daniel was or wasn’t drinking alcohol at his birthday party last night, I am not willing to discuss. Daniel is now 18 and the question of whether he chooses to consume alcohol at a private function or not is completely up to him.” But the publicist rather spoils her point by going to great lengths to deny that Radcliffe had been “drinking Fosters or any other lager” while watching

More bad news for Dave

Today’s Guardian ICM poll continues the run of bad figures for Dave. Now, all of this can be (and is being) dismissed by Tory optimists as part and parcel of the predictable “Brown bounce”: Gordon has not yet been PM for a month, after all. And I agree that Cameron would be daft to mould his strategy around the voting intention statistics drawn up by pollsters in the first few weeks of a premiership. The finding that should worry Dave is that a majority of Labour and Tory voters think that Brown has brought a change to government. This suggests that the public has bought Gordon’s mantra that he has

Alex Massie

Three cheers for the Tories. Yes, really.

David Cameron is receiving some grief for zipping off to Rwanda to talk about the Tories’ new policies on global poverty, leaving behind the whines of some that he is ignoring his flooded constituents so-called plight. Well, too bad. Cameron had a good, welcome message to deliver in Kigali: Tory leader David Cameron has called for an end to trade barriers that put developing countries at an “unfair disadvantage”, during a trip to Rwanda. He said all rich countries should end trade tariffs unilaterally and British aid spending should be speeded up. Launching a policy group’s report on global poverty, he said trade rules were “immoral”. The group’s proposals, which

Reading between Gordon’s lines

Gordon Brown’s new book, Britain’s Everyday Heroes (Mainstream, £10.99), is yet another important clue to the Prime Minister’s political trajectory. In inspiration, it is part Cobbett’s Rural Rides, part Eliot’s homage to “unhistoric acts”. In his portraits of 33 individuals engaged in various forms of service and community work, Gordon identifies those he regards as the “true celebrities” of our times, and hails “an age of engagement: with our culture and communities energised and improved by the choices and actions of individuals – people power.” In such enterprise, he says, we can see – you guessed it – the “greatness of Britain” as well as the “timeless values of the

Here’s some beef

Amidst all the hullabaloo about David Cameron heading to Rwanda while parts of his constituency remain flooded, it is worth noting that the report he is unveiling over there has some pretty sound ideas in it. Writing in the Telegraph this morning, Peter Lilley, the group’s chair, argues that trade is essential and that rich countries must do five things: “open their markets unilaterally to the products of all low-income countries; liberalise the “rules of origin” that result in 40 per cent of imports that should enter Europe tariff-free paying duties; give incentives to reduce the high tariff barriers between developing countries; abolish export subsidies that damage Third World agriculture;

James Forsyth

New EU treaty is 96% the same as the constitution

The invaluable think-tank Open Europe has translated the text of the European treaty formerly known as the constitution into English; something the government has so far failed to do.  Their work shows that 96 percent of the text is as it was in the constitution.  In some ways this doesn’t come as a surprise, Bertie Ahern said that it was 90 percent the same, but it does illustrate how disingenuous the government is in trying to deny people the referendum they were promised in the Labour manifesto. But Brown clearly believes that the Tories will be too nervous about ‘banging on about Europe’ to go after him on  this. 

Cameron’s gamble

Behold an extraordinary role reversal: the Tories used to define themselves by crunchy competence, and Labour by compassion and an emotional appeal to collective and international solidarity. Tonight, Gordon Brown is styling himself as the right man to steer the nation through its watery crisis: après la deluge, moi. David Cameron, meanwhile, has taken a colossal gamble, and gone ahead with his trip to Rwanda to mark the launch of the Conservatives’ international poverty report. Tomorrow’s papers will make for rough reading, I predict. As British voters worry about the cost of flood damage and the promise of further inundation, the Tories fly out of the country. But Dave calculates

James Forsyth

Direct questions

Tonight the Democratic presidential candidates are doing a debate where the questions will come from YouTube users. The almost 3,000 videos submitted are of surprisingly high-quality. The campaigns must be a little nervous about tonight. As Ben Smith points out, there’ll probably be some questions that are more direct than anything a traditional moderator would ever dare ask. (Predictably, folk have submitted videos asking Hillary if her husband has committed adultery since leaving office.) I expect we’ll see a show along these lines in the next election here. What would you ask Brown, Cameron and Campbell?  

Kavanagh: Labour set to win big and then win again

In The Sun this morning Trevor Kavanagh dismisses the Tories chances of winning the next election, writing: “Gordon Brown is going to win—and win big. In the process he will likely set Labour up for a fifth term and 20 unbroken years of socialism.Why? Not because he has necessarily delivered a better Britain over the past ten years – though he has been fiendishly clever. But because the Tories are still soft, arrogant and – some say – idle.”   Kavanagh goes on to contrast Brown’s workaholic determination with the Tories more relaxed approach. Indeed, it is one of the many ironies of the past few week that Alastair Campbell’s diaries

No time to leave the country

As Middle England sinks further underwater today, David Cameron is off to Rwanda to inspect the gap year-style project overseen by Andrew Mitchell. The timing couldn’t be worse: today, for the first time in decades, there are towns in Britain without clean water. Temporary residents’ centres are opening for the displaced in Oxford. If I were Gordon Brown, I’d visit as many of these places as I could while Cameron is abroad, and be pictured comforting Middle England as Cameron poses with Rwandans And if I were Mr Cameron, I’d avoid the cameras today for precisely these reasons. Fate has made this the worst possible time for him to go.

Can the Tories win from this far behind?

Matt is right that the Tories would be daft to dump Dave. First, Labour would have an absolute field day accusing the Tories of panicking and ‘lurching to the right’. Second, it would turn the Tory party into a laughing stock and, last but not least, it is hard to see who could do a better job than Cameron. I was making this case to someone earlier when they asked me: has an opposition party ever won an election after being this far behind in the polls at this point in a parliament? I was stumped and couldn’t think of an example: anyone know of one? Personally, I don’t think

Powell’s wife hits out at police over ‘cash for honours’

One of the most striking things about the end of the ‘cash for honours’ inquiry on Friday was the absence of a victory lap from those who had spent so long under pressure from the police probe. Both Lord Levy and Tony Blair were magnanimous in victory and careful not to criticise the police directly in their statements. This seemed like by far the best tactics for them, it wasn’t in their interests for the police to feel that they had to defend themselves. The new Prime Minister must also have welcomed their restraint; this is a story he wants to go away as soon as possible and anything that