Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

Alexander Horne

Why Rishi Sunak can’t weaponise the ECHR

One of the major themes of the current election campaign is the attempt by Rishi Sunak to draw a dividing line between the Tories and  Labour on the issue of immigration, particularly when it comes to the Rwanda scheme. Today, the Conservative party sought to highlight the issue in its manifesto.  The manifesto claims a Conservative government would: ‘stop the boats by removing illegal migrants to Rwanda’, ‘stop illegal migrants bringing spurious legal challenges’ and ‘work with other countries to rewrite asylum treaties’. It also repeated a slogan that Sunak had previously trailed at the first televised debate with Keir Starmer that ‘if we are forced to choose between our security

Steerpike Steerpike

Former Green leader jumps ship to Labour

Another day, another drama. As general election campaign shenanigans continue, it now transpires that Robin Harper — the UK’s first ever Green parliamentarian and former leader of the Scottish Greens — has jumped ship to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party. With just over three and a half weeks to go until polling day, the veteran politician has announced he is endorsing the Shadow Scotland Secretary, Ian Murray, in Edinburgh South. The writing was on the wall when the ex-Edinburgh MP revealed last week that Harper was helping as a ‘volunteer’ during his campaigning. Murray — who until last year’s Rutherglen by-election was the only Scottish Labour MP since 2019 —

Andrew Lilico

It isn’t true that elections are always won from the centre

Last week, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt argued that the Tories shouldn’t pitch to the right in response to Nigel Farage and Reform, because ‘elections are always won from the centre ground.’ It is one of the most widely-repeated ideas in political analysis that elections are won from the centre. It isn’t really true, but it isn’t a silly idea and it’s interesting to understand why so many people believe it and the reasons it’s wrong. Its origins lie in economics, and in particular a model produced by an American economist called Harold Hotelling. That model is usually illustrated using the thought experiment of two ice cream sellers on a beach. The

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

How France’s shy Le Pen voters caused a political earthquake

Emmanuel Macron visited Oradour-sur-Glane on Monday to mark the 80th anniversary since the village in central France was liquidated by SS troops. Laying a wreath at the site where 643 Frenchmen, women and children were massacred, the president of the Republic declared that: ‘We will remember Oradour, always, so that history never starts again’. That was a veiled reference to the success of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which crushed the opposition in Sunday’s European elections. In 96 of France’s 101 Departments, the National Rally – led by Jordan Bardella – came out top, and their triumph in France’s towns and villages was overwhelming. Villages such as the rebuilt Oradour sur

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The Tories are addressing welfare reform too late

The launch of the Conservative manifesto later this morning will dominate today’s headlines. But it’s worth reflecting, before the full details are released, on how we ended up with an earlier-than-expected election. In addition to ministers’ fear that the small boats figures would rise this summer – and flights to Rwanda would be grounded – there was also growing concern that the economic data wouldn’t tell the good news story they wanted to take into an autumn election. Today’s labour market update complicates that theory.  The Labour market is still cooling, but slowly. Unemployment rose again, to 4.4 per cent between February and April this year: this takes the rate

Daniel Rey

Trump is forcing Biden to the right

Joe Biden is a pragmatist. With just five months to go until his rematch against Donald Trump, the veteran Democrat is making political decisions based on an electoral calculation. These decisions, intended to undermine Trump’s appeal among wavering voters, cross into economic, domestic and foreign policy. They are taking him closer to the views of his Republican opponent. A case in point is immigration – one of Trump’s electoral strengths, and one of Biden’s biggest weaknesses. Biden, who is lagging behind Trump in the polls, has just signed an executive order denying asylum to migrants who enter the United States illegally. Michigan has become a major problem for Biden Immigration

Terry Barnes

Australia’s Covid honours farce

Whatever one thinks of all that happened in the Covid years, and how the experience scarified so many and even compelled us to question the solidity of democratic institutions and values throughout the West, most of us simply want to forget. The Covid time is like a relationship gone bad: it’s easier to cope by burying it it and moving on. In Australia this week, however, unpleasant reminders of the dark Covid time resurfaced in an unexpected place: the national King’s Birthday honours list. What a face-slapping insult Andrews’s gong is to Victorians Since dispensing with imperial honours several decades ago, the highest civilian honour here is to be appointed

James Heale James Heale

What can we expect in the Tory manifesto?

Day two of manifesto week will see the Conservatives launch their prospectus for government. At a chunky 77 pages, the document aims to set out what the Tories intend to do if given another five years. Rishi Sunak’s party has already announced a slew of policies in the campaign (from mandatory national service to more help for pensioners). However, there will still be new ideas, with a focus on the economy through tax and welfare. Below is a run-down of what we can expect from this morning’s announcement in the East Midlands. Taxation The centrepiece of the manifesto is likely to be a 2p cut to national insurance, taking the

Dalibor Rohac

The EU election spells trouble for Ukraine

If one story dominates the cacophony of results of the European election from across the 27 countries of the Union, it is the defeat of incumbents in the EU’s largest member states: France and Germany. While their underperformance was expected, its aftershocks risk leaving Europe weak and ineffectual in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.  It is hard to see how Macron or Scholz will become bolder in their Ukrainian positions in the coming months In France, president Emmanuel Macron responded to the poor performance of his party, Renaissance, by calling a snap election for 30 June – less than two weeks before Nato’s summit in Washington.  The logic

Gareth Roberts Gareth Roberts

The trouble with ‘centrist’ Tories

‘Elections are won from the centre ground,’ the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said. Perhaps he should have a word with his own party. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years and, while they are nominally centre-right, many of the party’s policies and positions will hardly strike the average voter as sensible and centrist. Maybe if the Tories really had stuck to the centre ground they wouldn’t be 21 points behind in the polls and heading for electoral wipeout on 4 July. Nowhere is the Tories’ refusal to adopt a sensible centrist position clearer than in the gender debate. The middle ground on this issue is surely that the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Sorry Sunak can’t muster much of a fight in BBC interview

A clash of the razor-blades. That’s how it started. Nick Robinson’s grey jowls were dotted with stubble as he sat down to quiz the PM on BBC One. Rishi Sunak had shaved. Robinson hadn’t bothered. And that mismatch set the tone for their bad-tempered interview. Robinson played the irritable major-general going over the blunders of an incompetent subaltern. The worst error Rishi had committed, said Robinson, was ‘bunking off D-Day.’ Rishi grovelled abjectly, yet again. His upper lip quivered nervously. ‘I hope that people can find it in their hearts to forgive me,’ he said. Crikey. Anyone would think that he’d crashed a chopper into a column of veterans on

Monday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Sunak splutters in BBC interview, but Starmer won’t do much better

Rishi Sunak has started to move on from his D-Day blunder. He probably won’t recover from the electoral damage he caused himself, but he is now able to talk about other things. The question is what is it that he can talk about that will actually get the voters listening? This evening he gave an interview to the BBC’s Nick Robinson where – after making his apology for the way he ‘bunked off’, as Robinson put it – he had to answer questions on why people should believe the promises the Conservatives are making on tax, immigration, the NHS, and so on, when none of the things they’d promised so

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Lib Dem policies are as barmy as their campaign

Ed Davey has finally taken a break from fooling around to launch some policies. But one of them, in particular, is not going to please a great number of Lib Dem voters. The Lib Dem manifesto is to propose giving local councils the power to put a 500 per cent council tax surcharge on second homes. Obviously, there is minimal danger of the Lib Dems actually getting into power to impose such a policy, so those nice Lib Dem voters in Richmond and Kingston who have boltholes in Salcombe, Southwold, and so on can still afford the luxury of voting for the party without actually having to face the cost

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Fighting over the Tory manifesto begins a day early

On Tuesday morning, Rishi Sunak will unveil the Conservative party’s 2024 manifesto. So far, there is talk of tax cuts, welfare reform and the need to reform the ECHR. But some on the conservative side are already voicing alarm that the 76-page draft document is playing it too safe on tax and borders – and lacks big ideas. As one figure privy to the document puts it: ‘It could flop’. While Tory candidates pray there is a rabbit in the hat to be unveiled tomorrow, Labour are busy getting their own attack lines in. This afternoon Jonathan Ashworth – the shadow cabinet office minister with the unofficial title of ‘minister

Steerpike Steerpike

Reform candidate apologises for his Hitler neutrality comments

Oh dear, it seems like the election scandals are coming thick and fast at the moment. Today, it was the turn of Reform UK, after it was revealed that one of the party’s candidates claimed Britain would be ‘far better’ if we had ‘taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality’ instead of fighting the Nazis during the second world war. Talk about a vote winner…  Ian Gribbin, Reform’s candidate for the Bexhill and Battle constituency, has caused a spot of bother for Nigel Farage’s party after a selection of his online posts came to light today. Commenting on the UnHerd website in July 2022, the Bexhill candidate wrote:  ‘Britain would

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

How would Britain’s Labour party change UK-China relations?

34 min listen

In less than a month’s time, Britain may well have a new prime minister – and a different ruling party. Under 14 years of the Conservative party, the UK’s approach to China has swung from the sycophancy of the golden era to fear and loathing under Liz Truss, stabilising in the last couple of years to a compete but engage approach, all while public opinion on China has hardened following the Hong Kong protests and the pandemic. What will a new government bring? Will the managerialism of Keir Starmer change UK-China relations much from the managerialism of Rishi Sunak? This is not a hypothetical question as Labour looks set to

James Heale James Heale

Will the Lib Dem manifesto win over the ‘Blue Wall’?

Sir Ed Davey kicked off manifesto week by launching his party’s document this afternoon in East London. In true Lib Dem style, it is a weighty tome of 114 pages – the product of months of painstaking care by party strategists. Their task was to reconcile the desires of the activist base with the demands of Tory voters that the leadership is trying to woo across the South of England. ‘We are a genuine party democracy – sadly’, joked one of Davey’s aides to me at last year’s conference. That tradition means that, unlike the Conservatives, the Lib Dem document cannot be cooked up in a matter of weeks and

Mark Nayler

The establishment triumphed in Spain’s elections

Spain’s Conservative Popular party (PP) came first in Sunday’s EU elections, upping its share of seats in the European parliament from 13 to 22 – with 34 per cent of the vote. The Socialists (PSOE), represented by energy minister Teresa Ribera, avoided the drubbing many had predicted, coming second with 20 seats.   Between them, the PP and PSOE have won enough seats to dominate smaller parties for the duration of this EU parliament A large gap separates these two frontrunners from smaller left- and right-wing groups, Catalan separatists and a curious new addition to Spain’s political scene. These parties secured between two and six seats in the new EU legislature. The

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

The Scottish Tories won’t accept Faragism

Douglas Ross was not a game-changing leader of the Scottish Conservatives in the way Ruth Davidson was but he announces his resignation as the game is being turned on its head. North of the border the Tories are seeing their vote hold up even as the electoral fortunes of their Sassenach brethren implode. They could come out of this election with more seats than the six they went into it with. But they are not captains of their own fate and Ross’s departure will only call attention to that.  Ross has had a tenure that at times seemed cursed and at others lucky. He had to handle the Scottish blowback

John Keiger John Keiger

The EU may struggle to find its way out of this election crisis

It is said that the EU thrives on crises. These are what spurs it on to the ultimate goal of wider and deeper integration. But yesterday’s European election results may be a crisis too far. Unlike its predecessors, this election has returned nine or so large Eurosceptic national parties intent on arresting the march towards ever-closer union. The nationalist and identitarian right, while by no means a majority in the new European parliament, is in a commanding position to seriously influence the EU’s future direction. According to the Bertelsmann Foundation’s European expert, quoted in Le Monde, the EU is entering ‘its most decisive phase in its 70 year history’. In the