Politics Archives

Monday

6 May 2024

Can Netanyahu afford to reject Hamas’s ceasefire deal?

A day after it seemed that a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel was all but dead, the terror group has issued a surprise statement announcing that it has accepted the deal offered by Egypt and Qatar. Optimism, though, would be premature at this point. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under considerable public pressure to reach a deal that will secure the release of Israeli hostages, has said the proposal for a new Gaza ceasefire is ‘far from Israel’s basic requirements’. Meanwhile, late on Monday, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it was conducting targeted strikes against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah. Despite this military action and Netanyahu’s

Nick Rogers

Susan Hall’s defeat was avoidable

It didn’t have to end this way. In more than two decades of campaigning I never encountered a politician more personally unpopular than Sadiq Khan. Even Labour voters seem lacklustre in their support. Against a backdrop in London of rising knife crime, hollowed-out night life, unpopular driving charges, increasingly unaffordable homes, endless divisive protests and a failing police force, it was easy to understand why. Sadiq Khan, seeking a third term, was beatable. That the Conservatives pulled defeat from this potential victory makes me, a former Conservative Member of the London Assembly and an activist for over two decades, both sad and angry. This was avoidable. Victory in London would

Steerpike

John Swinney’s three worst moments in office

And so we have it: a nationalist coronation, as yet another First Minister resigns. John Swinney, formerly Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy FM and onetime leader of the SNP himself, has been elected – unopposed – as the new leader of the Scottish National party. Thought to have been parachuted in by the party establishment, Swinney’s coronation was almost foiled by ‘flatulence in a trance‘ SNP activist Graeme McCormick who, by some quirk in the SNP’s constitution, had enough nominations to stand against the MSP for the leadership. But, at the eleventh hour, the renegade backed down after having ‘lengthy and fruitful’ talks with Swinney himself. Branded the ‘unity’ candidate, the new

Jonathan Spyer

Hamas is playing for time

Israeli, international and Hamas officials are currently awaiting the decision of Yahya Sinwar, the terror group’s military leader on a proposed ceasefire deal. Egypt has put forward a phased release of Israeli hostages and a temporary end to the fighting in Gaza. Sinwar is looking at the deal. As the talking and the diplomatic manoeuvring continues, two IDF combat divisions, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armoured, are making their final preparations for entry into Rafah. Failure to reach agreement on Egypt’s proposal is likely to set an IDF operation into motion. Egypt’s proposition would commit Israel to a long and open-ended ceasefire. Over time, Israeli hostages would be swapped

Limor Simhony Philpott

Israel is committed to fighting on in Rafah

As last week drew to a close, it seemed that the intense efforts of Egyptian and American mediators might result in a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel being reached. Then on Saturday, a ‘high ranking source in the Israeli government’ announced that Israel would invade Rafah whether a deal was reached or not, meaning an agreement would only delay an operation into Hamas’s last stronghold. In response, Hamas hardened their position. They demanded further guarantees from mediators that the deal would lead to a permanent ceasefire allowing the terrorist organisation to keep control over Gaza and to continue attacking Israel. Israel cannot allow Hamas to keep control of Gaza

Gavin Mortimer

Draft dodgers are undermining Ukraine’s plea for help

Emmanuel Macron warned recently that Europe is in ‘mortal danger’. The French president said that Russia cannot be allowed to win its war with Ukraine. He reiterated the idea he first floated in February of sending soldiers to Ukraine, saying: ‘I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out.’ Macron’s comments come amid reports of an upsurge in draft dodgers in Ukraine. They are frightened because their government has launched a crackdown on men avoiding the draft. In November last year it was reported that as many as 650,000 Ukrainians of military age have left the country since the war began. ‘Some men paid

Sam Leith

Suella Braverman has made herself look silly

Did Suella Braverman run her latest op-ed by No. 10 for approval? That was the question asked at the end of last year when the then Home Secretary wrote an inflammatory article accusing the Met of being biased towards left-wing protesters. The answer then was that she hadn’t, and she lost her job (for a second time). This time round, nobody needs to bother to ask the question. She doesn’t have a job. No. 10 will have been dismayed but probably unsurprised to read her article in the Telegraph yesterday in which she blamed the Prime Minister for the catastrophic local election results. She implied he should have been dumped

John Keiger

Aukus is becoming a potent alliance

Compare and contrast the frenetic, largely unwanted and unnecessary manoeuvres to create a common EU defence union, with the methodical, steadfast construction of Aukus as a formidable Indo-Pacific entente to counter the Chinese threat. Only this week, South Korea signalled its intent to join the alliance and share advanced military technology with the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Aukus began in September 2021 between Australia, the UK and USA to supply Canberra with a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines better able to confront Chinese regional expansionism. Building on their near eight-decade ultra-secret intelligence sharing agreement, Five Eyes, the three core members of Aukus now partner strategically and technologically in

Sunday

5 May 2024

Katy Balls

What does Andy Street’s defeat mean for Rishi Sunak?

The local elections results are in, and the Conservatives have lost more than 450 council seats. After a full recount, Labour’s Richard Parker beat Andy Street to become West Midlands mayor, with only around 1500 votes in it. What does his loss mean for Rishi Sunak, and where do the overall results leave him? Katy Balls and James Heale speak to Megan McElroy. Produced by Megan McElroy.

John Curtice

Things look bleak for the Tories

Thursday’s local elections almost inevitably produced a cacophony of information. That presented the parties with plenty of opportunity to cherry pick results that appeared to present their performance in a better light – thereby potentially distracting attention from less convincing performances. If Reform had fought these local elections more widely, the picture might have looked even bleaker for the Conservatives As the results gradually flowed in, the Conservatives pursued this strategy with vigour. They trumpeted their successful defence of the Tees Valley mayoralty. And they pointed out that Labour had failed to gain overall control of one of their target councils, Harlow. Unfortunately, that strategy came rather unstuck on Saturday

Eliot Wilson

Could Andy Street be a future Tory leader?

Andy Street was a political outsider when he was chosen as the Conservative party’s candidate for mayor of the new West Midlands Combined Authority in 2016. He was 53 and had enjoyed a successful career in retail, latterly as managing director of John Lewis and Partners. This weekend, after seven years as mayor, he was narrowly defeated by Labour’s Richard Parker, the margin just 1,508 votes out of a total of 600,000. Street has become a considerable figure in Conservative politics Street has become a considerable figure in Conservative politics, seen as straightforward and practical, an effective champion for his region. Partly this has been a result of his status

Steerpike

Watch: Galloway hangs up on LBC

The fall-out from the local elections continue. In the West Midlands, Labour pulled off a shock upset to unseat Andy Street by 1,500 votes. The Starmer army’s triumph there was all the more impressive when one considers that the pro-Palestine independent Akhmed Yakoob finished third on 11 per cent. Yakoob, who won the votes of many traditional Labour voters in the Muslim community, was backed by George Galloway, whose Workers’ Party of Britain is trying to cause Labour headaches across the UK. Invited on to LBC to speak about the result, Galloway clearly thought he would be on something of a victory lap. But his mood quickly turned sour after

Rakib Ehsan

Akhmed Yakoob’s West Midlands result should worry Labour

While Labour has gained councillors across England, and won bellwether councils such as Nuneaton and Bedworth and Milton Keynes, it has also lost some of its traditional Muslim support to George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain (WPB) and pro-Palestine Muslim independent candidates. From the industrial Lancastrian town of Blackburn to inner-city Bradford in West Yorkshire, the ‘Palestine’ effect has seen a surge of independent Muslim councillors elected – largely at the expense of Labour. But arguably the independent pro-Gaza challenger who has landed the fiercest uppercut to Labour’s chin is one who was not even elected: the West Midlands mayoral candidate Akhmed Yakoob. While Labour won the mayoralty from Andy Street, Yakoob managed to

Steerpike

Suella Braverman: we will be lucky to have any Tory MPs soon

So, it didn’t take long for the recriminations to begin. After Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives were subject to a massive drubbing in this week’s council elections, and were hit with the loss of the West Midlands mayoralty last night, the blame game is well underway. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman certainly wasted no time in giving Sunak both barrels. Appearing on Sunday with Lura Kuenssberg, the MP laid into the PM for the disastrous results, and predicted that the party was heading for a wipe-out in the next election, saying: ‘The plan is not working … at this rate we will be lucky to have any Conservative MPs at the next

Joanna Bell

Ireland’s border policy is completely incoherent

Earlier this week, Ireland’s newly installed Taoiseach, Simon Harris, made an outrageous proposal to deploy 100 policemen to control immigration along the border with Northern Ireland. Harris is trying to prevent an influx of immigrants crossing the border before Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport immigrants to Rwanda is implemented. It doesn’t feel like that long ago that his predecessor Leo Varadkar was stressing to European Union leaders how important it was to avoid a hard border. To make his point Varadkar even went as far as highlighting an old news story about an IRA bomb which went off at a customs post in the 70s, killing nine people. Yet for

Francis Pike

Why Taiwan is pulling down statues of Chiang Kai-shek

While the West obsesses about whether or not China’s supreme leader, Xi Jinping, is going to invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese seemingly have other concerns. Today the hot issue is statues. To be precise, statues of Chiang Kai-shek, the post-war founder-dictator of independent modern Taiwan. In an inventory taken in 2000 it was estimated that there were over 43,000 statues of Chiang in Taiwan. A removal process, albeit limited in scale, was begun shortly after. Some 150 statues were removed and taken to the sculpture garden that surrounds the mausoleums of Chiang and his son Chiang Ching-kuo – a place often referred to as the ‘Garden of the Generalissimos’. So why

Marat Iliyasov

What’s the truth about Ramzan Kadyrov’s ‘terminal illness’?

Is Ramzan Kadyrov dying? The independent Russian-language publication Novaya Gazeta recently published an investigation in which it claimed Kadyrov was terminally ill, suffering from pancreatic necrosis. Putin’s ally, it claimed, may not have long to live and it cited a long list of evidence to back up its claim. Throughout his rule, Kadyrov and his cronies have committed many crimes to shore up their power, and have enjoyed the Kremlin’s protection throughout. But even Putin’s patronage cannot protect Kadyrov from his own mortality. Kadyrov appears to be doing his best to ensure that his family is well placed after his death The Chechen ruler’s health, judging just from his appearance, is clearly failing. Recent videos published

John Foreman

Is Havana Syndrome real?

Aficionados of zombie films will know that some ghouls just won’t stay dead. In 2013, the economist Paul Krugman came up with the concept ‘zombie ideas’ – propositions that have been refuted, and should be no more, but keep returning because they serve a political purpose, or appeal to people’s prejudices. In the run up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I experienced some of the symptoms associated with Havana Syndrome myself In March this year, US officials will have hoped that a well-known zombie idea, Havana Syndrome, had finally been killed off. Havana Syndrome is the name for a group of unexplained medical symptoms which have been reported by hundreds

Saturday

4 May 2024

Patrick O’Flynn

After Street’s loss, the Tories have one strategy left

Tory supporters went to bed on Friday night believing that their man Andy Street would hold on handily in the West Midlands Metro Mayor contest, while also daring to dream that Susan Hall might just pull off a sensational win over Sadiq Khan in London. It has not played out like that. Not only did Labour handsomely win this year’s round of May elections, but it also won the expectations management battle. There really are no reasons to be cheerful for Conservative MPs In the West Midlands contest, a wafer-thin triumph for Labour’s Richard Parker over Street probably doesn’t tell us much about the general election results to come later

James Heale

Andy Street’s narrow defeat caps Tory misery

Andy Street has been defeated as mayor of West Midlands by Labour’s Richard Parker in a knife-edge contest. The result was due at 3 p.m this afternoon but was delayed by almost six hours following a recount of all the ballots cast in Coventry. Parker ended up with 225,590 or 37.8 per cent of votes to Street’s 224,082 or 37.5 per cent – so just 1,508 votes separated them. It means that Labour has now won 10 of the 11 mayor elections. Ben Houchen, clinging on in Tees Valley, is the only Tory mayor left. Street had done all he could to distance himself from what he regarded as a