Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Sunday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Sage ‘scenarios’ vs actual: an update

Given that lockdown was very nearly ordered on the advice of Sage last month, it’s worth keeping an eye on the ‘scenarios’ it published, and how they compare to the situation today. Another week of data offers more food for thought. This week was the period when deaths were supposed to be peaking – so given that no extra restrictions were ordered, it’s interesting to compare the peak the models predicted for this week with what actually happened. Deaths were said by Sage to peak at anything from 600 to 6,000 a day (the latter figure, predictably, hogged the headlines). But on Saturday 262 deaths were reported in England, and

Saturday

John Ferry John Ferry

The paradox at the heart of Nicola Sturgeon’s green ‘revolution’

In some ways it was refreshing to see the radical left brought to heel by the realities of government. Having spent years campaigning to ‘ditch neoliberal economics for good’, this week saw the Scottish Green Party celebrate Shell and BP winning contracts to exploit Scotland’s offshore wind potential for the enrichment of their shareholders. Far from being a strike against neoliberalism, the Greens have provided a ringing endorsement of capitalism’s place in the transition away from fossil fuels. This came on the back of the ScotWind Leasing project, which has seen the Scottish government auction off seabed plots for major offshore wind projects around the Scottish coast. In the first

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

The rampant egotism of Boris’s backbench MPs

The post-war Conservative statesman David Maxwell Fyfe once claimed that loyalty was the Tory secret weapon. Like many of his ideas – he was also a notable advocate of European integration – this one did not stand the test of time. Indeed, it crashed and burned when he became one of the highest profile victims of Harold Macmillan’s ‘Night of the Long Knives’ reshuffle. Jeremy Thorpe wittily characterised that brutal event as showing that a Tory leader was willing ‘to lay down his friends for his life’. These days the disloyalty primarily flows the other way in the Conservative party, with backbenchers increasingly viewing bids to topple the party leader

Friday

Steerpike Steerpike

Carrie’s campaigners and the Tory Chief Whip

Poor Mark Spencer. The whips’ office and its much-maligned chief have been in the firing line this week over their poor tactics and weak political intelligence, having been accused of deploying bully-boy tactics while conversely failing to protect their embattled PM. Spencer has, reportedly, accepted his fate and the fact he is ‘very much much on his way out’ amid briefings that the whips’ office is to be purged to make amends for Johnson’s errors. Still, Mr S was intrigued to read a page 4 report from the Guardian today, headlined ‘Chief Whip “delaying changes to animal welfare”.’ It claims that ‘senior sources in the Conservative party have confirmed that several policies including

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Did Boris’s whips go too far?

13 min listen

After Christian Wakeford’s defection to Labour, Boris Johnson looks to be in the clear – for now. The Prime Minister’s backbenchers, though, are still frustrated by the aggressive tactics used by his whips to ensure their support. Is blackmail normal in the Commons, and are their complaints a result of Parliament’s generational divide? Cindy Yu speaks to James Forsyth. ‘If you had turned up in Westminster in the 1970s, you would find whips pushing people up against the wall. I don’t think that goes on today.’ – James Forsyth

Steerpike Steerpike

Milling flounders on Uyghur debate

The mood in Westminster has gone somewhat quiet over the past two days, after Christian Wakeford’s defection on Wednesday stopped the momentum of Tory plotters in parliament. But for a few hours yesterday, passions came alive once more – this time on an issue of policy. Foreign Office minister Amanda Milling was dragged to the House to answer questions from seething China hawks over the Commons debate on the Uyghur Tribunal’s verdict of genocide. The hapless Milling was appointed to her current post as Minister for Asia in September 2021, after being demoted from her role as Chairman of the Conservative party. And, for all its current difficulties, how Milling

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What happens if Boris wins a no confidence vote?

The Partygate drama is temporarily paused as Tory MPs wait for Sue Gray to deliver her report. But even once it is out, what happens to Boris Johnson and the Conservative party is far from clear. One Tory MP with a foot in both the rebel and loyalist camps predicts ‘trench warfare for several weeks’ as the plotters try to get the 54 letters they need for a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister. As the rules currently stand, if Boris Johnson wins a confidence vote, he is safe for 12 months Not all Tory MPs are convinced that submitting a letter is the right approach though. As I

Wolfgang Münchau Wolfgang Münchau

Blair is right: Boris doesn’t have a plan for Britain

What can Boris Johnson and the Tories learn from Tony Blair? While Labour’s former leader remains deeply unpopular – and indeed ultimately fell over a grave misjudgement – he was the UK’s last successful prime minister. Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Theresa May and, now, Boris Johnson exist in his shadow. The PM would be wise then to look to Blair’s rise to power – and his strategic approach to government – to learn some lessons. In a speech yesterday, Blair warned that:  Margaret Thatcher was the last Tory leader with an actual agenda ‘There is a gaping hole in the governing of Britain where new ideas should be.’ Blair is right. While Partygate continues to dominate the

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Sex, trans rights and the Scottish census

It takes some doing to make a census interesting. So congratulations to the National Records of Scotland (NRS). NRS, which administers the decennial survey, is facing a judicial review over its guidance on the document. On the question of sex, it states that ‘if you are transgender the answer you give can be different from what is on your birth certificate’. That is, something other than your legal sex. Feminist group Fair Play For Women will challenge this guidance at the Court of Session on 2 February. If this sounds familiar, it’s because similar guidance for last year’s census in England and Wales was challenged at the High Court and found to

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

How bad was President Biden’s first year?

34 min listen

Freddy Gray and Lionel Shriver discuss Joe Biden’s first year at the helm of the United States, and whether he is capable of tackling the challenges poised by Vladimir Putin, rampant inflation and his own capacity for gaffes.

Steerpike Steerpike

Sturgeon skews her stats (again)

The statistical shenanigans of the SNP have been highlighted by Mr S before but it’s always worth highlighting when the nationalist Holyrood government gets it wrong (again). At First Minister’s Questions yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon told colleagues that England’s infection rate is 20 per cent higher than that of Scotland, according to ONS figures. A surprising figure, given that the ONS estimated infection rate was 1 in 20 for both nations yesterday. The SNP leader said: In terms of the ONS figures this week, infection levels in England right now are over 20 per cent higher than in Scotland. I don’t think it’s a competition but if Douglas Ross wants to make these comparisons, then

Joanna Rossiter Joanna Rossiter

Putin won’t be fazed by Britain’s show of military support to Ukraine

Can the British army afford to take on Russia? That’s the burning question that has been left after Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced this week – to surprisingly little fanfare – that the UK is sending 30 elite troops and 2,000 anti tank weapons to the Ukraine. Wallace clearly intended to send a message to Moscow on where Britain’s allegiance lies, but such political posturing can only be beneficial if it’s backed up by sustained support in the long term – something the British army is in no place to do. As Britain seeks to reduce the size of its army to just 72,500 regular soldiers, Russia has amassed over 106,000

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Why William Wragg’s whipping complaints matter

To an old Westminster lag like me, there is something slightly grating about MPs complaining about nasty whips and political intimidation. I’m thinking about William Wragg, who says the government is ‘blackmailing’ MPs to support Boris Johnson and suggested the police should get involved. Wragg says that MPs are facing threats over constituency funding and even their personal lives unless they fall into line. Some people are surprised and outraged to learn that governments threaten to do horrible things to their own MPs. Those people have not spent much time in Westminster, where such things are quite mundane. Indeed, the sort of things Wragg describes strike me as being at

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

The fate of the French Socialists is a warning for Boris Johnson

The defection of Christian Wakeford to Labour has put a spring in the step of the left-wing party. Apparently it marks the start of their revival. Give it two years and Keir Starmer will be waving from the steps of Number 10. That’s one scenario. A more likely one is that the good people of Bury South will unseat Wakeford at the next general election as Labour suffer another humiliating defeat. What so many in the Westminster bubble don’t get is that for the average voter in Bury, Basildon or Blyth Valley, ‘partygate’ is not top of their grievances with Boris Johnson. It’s often immigration, tax rises and the nonsense

Steerpike Steerpike

Dehenna Davison and the Mean Girls of Downing Street

It’s all a bit of a soap opera over at No. 10. Tears, screams, tantrums, mess everywhere — and that’s just Boris’s children Wilf and Romy. The papers are full of talk of ‘the good king with bad advisers’ as various sources speculate that one or more of the whips’ office, special adviser team and the ministerial ranks could all be overhauled. Bertolt Brecht suggested dissolving the people and electing another – it appears Boris wants to do the same to the team he hand-picked. But while Johnson’s government has been accused of having a ‘women problem,’ it’s not just the men getting involved in the briefing wars. For tensions within

Thursday

William Moore William Moore

The collapse: how Red Wall MPs turned on Boris

39 min listen

In this week’s episode: Will the Red Wall crush Boris Johnson? In this week’s Spectator, our political editor James Forsyth and our deputy political editor Katy Balls report on the plot to oust the Prime Minister by Red Wall MPs, and No.10’s battle to save Boris. They join the podcast to give their up to date diagnosis. (00:43) Also this week: How to save the BBC? This week Nadine Dorries announced that she is planning a licence fee freeze. In the Spectator this week Paul Wood, a veteran journalist of the BBC writes about his love-hate relationship with the broadcaster. He joins the podcast now along with Domonic Minghella, writer,

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Did Tory whips blackmail Red Wall MPs?

9 min listen

As the Prime Minister has a stay of execution after the pork pie plot came to nothing, today allegations are flying that Tory whips have been using unsavoury methods to threaten wavering MPs into line. Christian Wakeford, the newly defected Labour MP to Bury South, says that whips threatened to withdraw funding from a local school; while William Wragg claims that MPs have been blackmailed with information about their private lives. But how much of this is true, and how much, as some in SW1 are saying today, is this just a part of being a whip? On the podcast, James Forsyth points out how some of this comes down

Matthew Lynn

Has Macron shot France’s energy industry in the foot?

Gas prices are soaring. Europe could be about to witness electricity shortages. Power companies are collapsing by the day, and, on top of all that, the government is set to phase out traditional energy to meet its net zero target.  So might think that a cable to ship in cheap, greener electricity from the other side of the Channel is something of a knight in shining armour. Yet the government blocked the proposal today, and it was absolutely right to do so. Britain may need all the electricity it can get its hands on right now — but the last thing it should do is increase its dependence on Macron and Putin. Britain

Damian Reilly Damian Reilly

Against Dominic Cummings

I’m no Westminster insider, but there comes a point when you have to consider that perhaps Carrie Johnson was right about Dominic Cummings. That point for me arrived in May last year when, without giving any indication he might be the one at fault, Cummings unblinkingly described to a parliamentary committee his relationship with his former boss, Carrie’s husband the British Prime Minister:  ‘The heart of the problem was, fundamentally, I regarded him as unfit for the job and I was trying to create a structure around him to try and stop what I thought were extremely bad decisions, and to push other things through against his wishes. And he

Steerpike Steerpike

Michael Fabricant’s hapless help

Oh dear. Tory loyalists have been out in force the past two days, desperate to save Boris Johnson’s flailing premiership. Mr S has heard of at least one boosterish Boris-backer quoting the words of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990: ‘I shall fight on, I fight to win!’ Unfortunately, as another MP muttered back: ‘Maggie resigned two days later.’ An excruciating interview by the Prime Minister on Tuesday backfired spectacularly, while the efforts of party whips to ‘encourage’ colleagues have resulted in Will Wragg denouncing them as ‘blackmail’ before his select committee today.  Still, cometh the hour, cometh the Fabricant. The honourable member for Lichfield has been doing his level best to dig