Scotland

Alex Massie

Scots, not Boris Johnson, are blocking IndyRef2

So what does it all mean? The first thing to bear in mind is that more than one thing may be true at the same time. This is, then, both a historic and thumping victory for Nicola Sturgeon and a mild disappointment. Historic because, after 14 years in power, Scottish voters have handed the SNP a fourth consecutive term in office; a modest disappointment because the SNP made little progress on their 2016 performance. Five years ago, Sturgeon lost the majority – albeit this was an accidental majority – she inherited from Alex Salmond and she failed to regain it this week. Doing so would have required everything to fall

Stephen Daisley

Jackie Baillie victory deals blow to SNP majority hopes

It’s a funny old business, politics. The SNP’s number one target in the Holyrood election was Scotland’s most marginal seat, Dumbarton. Held by Labour in 2016 by just 109 votes, the Nationalists put everything into unseating the incumbent Jackie Baillie.  It is no exaggeration to say Baillie is a hate-figure for Scottish nationalism. She is moderate Labour, staunchly pro-Union, pro-Trident (the Clyde Naval Base is in her constituency), and was a member of the Holyrood inquiry, during which she distinguished herself with fierce, forensic questioning of both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond. For all the damage they have inflicted on Labour in its one-time heartlands of west-central Scotland, the Nationalists have never been able

Stephen Daisley

SNP gains from turnout surge in Scotland

You know those elections where some cold comfort can be harvested by the losing side in gains made here and there? The Holyrood vote isn’t one of them. The full results won’t be in until tomorrow but based on what we’ve seen so far, the SNP is home clear and dry. An outright majority seems probable. Labour has already lost East Lothian to the Nationalists and in Dumbarton, Scotland’s most marginal seat, its majority is just 109. Tory-held Ayr has fallen to Nicola Sturgeon’s party while the Conservatives have failed to make gains elsewhere. (They did, however, come within 800 votes of winning Banffshire and Buchan Coast.) There was an

Isabel Hardman

Can Sarwar reverse Scottish Labour’s fortunes?

Has Anas Sarwar got what it takes to woo Scottish Labour’s lost voters? I joined the recently-elected leader of the party while on the campaign trail in Glasgow and you can read my interview with him in this week’s magazine. His analysis is that Labour was in danger of becoming part of the past for many Scottish voters. His solution is to stop talking about the constitution in an attempt to avoid the ‘divisive’ politics that has dominated the country for years now and to encourage voters to take another look at his party. He told me that the ‘big mistake that other political parties are making’ is to ‘make

Steerpike

A brief guide to Scotland’s 25 political parties

Voters in Scotland have a lively choice of parties in today’s elections to the Holyrood parliament. In all, there are 25 vying for either or both of each elector’s two votes (proportional representation, innit). As a public service and to mitigate confusion, Mr Steerpike offers this explanatory note on the Scottish political landscape. First, there’s the SNP, which is asking electors for both their votes to create a mandate for a second independence referendum. Voters who don’t support a second independence referendum and don’t want to give the SNP a mandate for one should still give the party both their votes. Because… reasons. Then there’s the Scottish Conservatives, who are

Isabel Hardman

Can Anas Sarwar rescue Scottish Labour?

When the Scottish parliament was set up by Tony Blair in 1999, it seemed as if Labour would govern Holyrood for the foreseeable future. The Scottish Tories were a contradiction in terms. Devolution was sold as a device that would kill nationalism ‘stone dead’. Suffice to say, this plan did not quite work. The Scottish National party took power in 2007, the Tories were resurrected as the new opposition and it was Scottish Labour that ended up on the brink of extinction. Now, for the first time in two decades, Scottish Labour is on the up, with a new party leader. Anas Sarwar, 38, was elected in February so has

Stephen Daisley

Holyrood 2021: Seats to watch out for

Scotland goes to the polls today to vote for 129 members of the Scottish Parliament. Polls forecast victory for the ruling SNP but there are a string of seats where the result last time was close enough to inject some unpredictability into proceedings. SNP targets Dumbarton Incumbent: Jackie Baillie (Labour)  Majority: 109 This is the seat the Nationalists want more than any other. Politically, it is a stubborn west-coast hold-out against the glories of nationalism. Symbolically, it is home to the Clyde Naval Base and the UK’s nuclear deterrent, which the SNP wants to scrap. But perhaps most important of all is the personal dimension. Jackie Baillie, the Labour MSP who

Alex Massie

Scottish nationalism is no better than any other kind

Even the Americans are noticing Nicola Sturgeon now and if you are – like many nationalists – the kind of Scottish nationalist forever on the lookout for external validation, lengthy articles featuring the first minister in The New Yorker and The Atlantic is the kind of thing to make you proud. There has always been a strong streak of what I like to think of as Sally Field nationalism – ‘And I can’t deny the fact that you like me! Right now, you like me!’ However happy it might be, it cannot quite escape being cringeworthy. But there we have it; nationalism is essentially myopic and all nationalisms are alike in

James Heale

Your guide to the 2021 election results

This week will see the biggest set of polls in UK history outside of a general election. Contests are under way in Wales, Scotland, London and in the various mayoral, local and PCC elections across Britain as part of a so-called ‘Super Thursday.’ But while past election nights have been met with the chimes of the BBC’s Arthur theme and a Dimbleby fronting hours of programmes, Covid means there will be no all-night television special. Whereas normally all results are in by midday Friday, this year it will take longer to verify and count the votes than it has done in previous elections. This is due to both reduced staff

Isabel Hardman

The Tory strategist behind Scottish Labour’s revamp

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is being advised by a key figure behind ex-Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson’s political brand, Coffee House can reveal. Eddie Barnes, a former spinner for Davidson when she led the party, has been helping Scottish Labour during the Holyrood campaign with messaging and voter strategy. He helped craft Davidson’s cheery, accessible image as she brought her party back from the brink of extinction in Scotland. It’s not difficult to see his influence in the way Sarwar has led an upbeat and confident campaign with attention-grabbing moments such as this dance class. Barnes works for Gordon Brown’s pro-Union think tank Our Scottish Future but has also

Steerpike

Las Vegas resident urges Scots to vote SNP

Sunday’s anti-climactic finale looked set to be the biggest Line of Duty let-down for fans of the hit BBC series. But now one of the drama’s stars Martin Compston has waded into the Scottish independence debate and urged his fellow Scots to vote SNP this Thursday. He says that the ‘Tory government in Westminster’ some 325 miles from the Scottish border, ‘do not care about Scotland’ adding: ‘The big decisions, whether it be Scotland’s future relationship with Europe, whether it be nuclear weapons on the Clyde are best taken by the people who live here.’  There’s just one problem – Compston’s main residence is in Las Vegas a mere 4,872 miles

Isabel Hardman

Tories still struggling to fill hole left by Ruth Davidson

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has barely been seen in public without his chaperone, Ruth Davidson. She has accompanied him around the Holyrood elections campaign trail with such devotion that it’s unclear who is standing for election and who is the actual party leader. The pair are campaigning in Edinburgh today and have sent out these letters – pictured below – to pro-Union voters. They have also launched an ad van and starred in a party political broadcast together. Perhaps ‘starred’ is an exaggeration for Ross, who played more of a cameo role in the PPB last month, with Davidson taking the limelight. Douglas Ross has struggled to have any

Steerpike

How would Whitehall respond to wildcat nats?

The SNP wants a second independence referendum. Boris Johnson has ruled one out. So what happens if the Scottish nationalists get a majority at Thursday’s Holyrood elections? Nicola Sturgeon has indicated that she will hold a vote — with or without Westminster’s legal consent. So Mr S decided to ask the Cabinet Office and the Scotland Office how they would respond to an unsanctioned Catalan-style referendum. In response to a Freedom of Information request, both departments said that they did not hold any contingency documents outlining the UK government’s response to an unauthorised vote. (It’s worth noting too that if such plans did exist, the departments would have to say so even if

Scotland’s inspiring success story with at-risk children

I never thought the Scots were more emotionally intelligent than the English. A year spent researching children at risk for the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) proved to me that they are. As documented in the CSJ’s latest report, Safely Reducing the Number of Children Going into Care, the Scots are far more advanced, in terms of their understanding of why we do what we do, than their English neighbours. Holyrood has embraced neuroscience, enthusiastically building a social infrastructure that will support those suffering from poor mental health and trauma. Westminster, by contrast, continues to languish in the dark ages when the public would pay a penny to gawp at

Steerpike

BBC makes a cameo in SNP election campaign

The SNP’s latest election graphic will make for uncomfortable viewing at BBC Scotland. As tweeted by Nicola Sturgeon today, the campaign material features a podium branded with the slogan ‘Protect our NHS’. Looming over it are the words: ‘On May 6, every vote counts in deciding who will be First Minister’, and in the bottom-right corner a logo that reads: ‘Both votes SNP for Nicola Sturgeon’. Electioneering off the back of a pandemic that has killed more than 10,000 Scots is a bold strategy. Especially bold when one-third of those deaths were among elderly residents and your health officials transferred untested and even Covid-positive patients into care homes. But what

Independence case is built on myths, denial and conspiracy theories

Anyone who engages in online debate about the case for Scottish independence will have encountered Scottish nationalist fact-deniers and myth-spreaders lurking on social media. They are not interested in engaging in serious debate; their ambition is simply to give their side licence to ignore basic economic facts. Keen to understand the true scale of this problem, we at These Islands commissioned Survation to poll Scottish voters about their understanding of basic economic facts and their attitudes towards some widely-circulated myths. We were dismayed to learn that economic fact-denial has spread far beyond the swampy backwaters of social media and is now mainstream among Scottish independence supporters. Fact Denial The reality of

Steerpike

Scottish Tories’ independence Twitter blunder

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross seems to pride himself on his independence from Boris Johnson. The Moray MP quit his ministerial job at the Scotland Office over Dominic Cummings’ trip to Durham and yesterday he told Andrew Marr that ‘of course’ the Prime Minister should go if he broke the ministerial code over the funding of his Downing Street flat redecoration. Douglas Ross might be getting a little too independent, in all senses of the term. But the assistant referee might be getting a little too independent, in all senses of the term. Today he participated in a photo-op with former Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who has been a constant

Independence would spark a citizenship crisis in Scotland — and the UK

In the great debate around Scottish independence, one word is never far away: identity. ‘Who am I?’ is elevated from mere navel-gazing to expressive political allegiance. On one side are those who feel that one can be both Scottish and British without fear of contradiction, while on the other are those who feel that one crushes the other. By casting off Britishness, one’s Scottishness could flower more fully, or so it is supposed. Even so, it is something that, even in these times of performative politics, could remain between you, your God and your woad supplier. It certainly isn’t something to which an agency of the state would take much

Stephen Daisley

Maverick of the glen

Holyrood 2021 was supposed to be an election for the mavericks. Alex Salmond is back from the political dead with a new party promising to lead nationalists to independence where his former party has failed. George Galloway has turned his attention to Scotland and, despite his previous pronouncements on the matter, is heading up an outfit opposed to indyref2. While Salmond has had no trouble drumming up headlines, neither has made much of an impression on the polls. That might be because their respective parties appear to be all about one man. The opposite seems to be true of Andy Wightman, who actually is one man but his campaign is