Society

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Billionaires for Immigration

I guess Michael Bloomberg and Co aren’t necessarily the most sympathetic folks out there. But here, via Dave Weigel, is what Rupert Murdoch has to say about immigration: “We’re just going to keep the pressure on the congressmen,” Murdoch said. “I think we can show to the public the benefits of having migrants and the jobs that go with them.” Sure, he’s talking about the United States but the gist of the argument is the same here. Perhaps he could have a word with the editor of the Sun? Sure too, immigration is a non-runner given the current economic climate. But at some point we’re going to need more workers.

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Downing Street monitoring three potential Whitehall trouble spots

Benedict Brogan, who is extremely well sourced inside Number 10, has a very interesting report on three potential problems that Downing Street is keeping a close eye on. The first is the Cameron Fox relationship. As James Kirkup writes in the Telegraph today, Cameron was not best pleased when Fox announced Sir Jock Stirrup’s sacking in a newspaper interview. There’s a feeling among some of his Cabinet colleagues that Fox is using up his lives rather quickly what with this mistake and the comment about Afghanistan being a broken 13th century just before he and William Hague and Andrew Mitchell arrived there. There’s also a lot of briefing against Fox coming

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cable begs for protection

Vince Cable is announcing to Metro that “We do not want to make such deep cuts to transport, energy, science research and universities.” Really? According to whom? The science budget, which has shot from £1.3bn to an indefensible £3.7bn, is a prime example of a cost that should not be borne by the taxpayer. Scientists are best left to get on with this themselves, and companies are more than capable of funding research. On energy, again, there are many expensive vanity projects just begging for the axe. Given that Cable is in charge of the universities brief – the most important part of his otherwise non-job – you can expect

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Rudd resigns, Australia has its first female PM

In the end, Kevin Rudd didn’t even last to the leadership ballot. He agreed to step down as PM and Labour leader this morning and the party immediately replaced him with Julia Gillard, his deputy who announced she was prepared to stand against him yesterday. At the start of the year, Rudd was the most popular PM in thirty years. His departure is a remarkable turn of events. We’ll have more analysis later in the day.

Wednesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron and Clegg offer joint defence of the Budget

David Cameron did particularly well in the Cameron and Clegg joint interview just now. He has a real ability to read the mood of an audience; the debates could have been very different if the audience hadn’t been required to be silent. The only news made during the interview was Cameron saying that he will not take the Prime Minister’s pension. But there was an interesting bit at the very end when Nick Robinson asked Nick Clegg what he had kept out of the Budget. Clegg said he didn’t want to go into the ‘gory details’, a phrase that Robinson immediately jumped on. Cameron then intervened to say that the

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The McChrystal Affair

Yesterday there was some chatter that the smart thing would be for General Stanley McChrystal to offer his resignation but for President Barack Obama to decline it. That had the advantage of cuteness, but I’m not sure it was ever feasible and not least because, as best I can tell, the more military-minded an observer is the more certain they were that the general had to go. It is not, evidently, an ideal situation. Of course it isn’t, it’s Afghanistan. Nevertheless, from both a political and military perspective replacing McChrystal with General David Petraeus is as close to a win-win result as its possible to salvage from this clusterfuck brouhaha.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

McCrystal goes

NBC is reporting that President Obama has accepted General McChrystal’s resignation. McChrystal had offered it following the publication of a magazine profile in which him and his staff were reported deriding various members of the administration’s Afghan war effort. McChrystal’s own criticisms of the president were also part of the piece. The BBC is now saying that General Petraeus, the general who implemented the surge strategy in Iraq, will replace McChrystal. This suggests that McChrystal’s dismissal will not lead to a change in strategy. Although it remains to be seen whether Petraeus will stay as head of CentCom.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Rudderless

Remarkable developments in Australian politics as the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd faces a leadership challenge tomorrow. Rudd is being challenged by his deputy PM Julia Gillard, who would be Australia’s first female PM. Gillard’s strategy might be to try and replicate Bob Hawke who was elected leader of the Australian Labour party and then went to the country almost immediately afterwards winning a convincing victory. The challenge has been triggered by Rudd going from a popular leader at the turn of the year to one who is in danger of losing office after just one term, the next election has to be held by April next year. Rudd has been

Peter Hoskin

How good intentions can be counterproductive

Might the coalition’s emphasis on fairness be making it harder to get people off welfare and into work? Not a question that I can answer with confidence, but certainly one which has been thrown up by the IFS’s Budget briefing. Take the government’s action on child tax credits, for instance. By increasing it at the lower end of the income distribution, and restricting it at the upper, some claimants now stand to lose more, more quickly, by moving up the income ladder. Or, as the IFS put it, their marginal effective rate of taxation has increased. Of course, this will have been offset by other measures such as the rise

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Facebook is Popular, So When Can We Start Banning It?

For those of you not watching the football (England 1-0 up at the moment, incidentally, and so just one blunder from being plunged back into the slough of despond) consider this question, asked by the Irish Labour MEP Nessa Childers: There has been an explosion in the usage of this online social networking tool across Europe: unfortunately many people have crossed the line from social networking to social dysfunction. This is a real health issue and I am calling upon the Commission to take action. Visiting your Facebook page frequently actually causes what psychologists refer to as ‘intermittent reinforcement’. Notifications, messages and invitations reward you with an unpredictable high, much

Peter Hoskin

IFS: there could be deeper cuts to come

An unfamiliar mood before the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Budget briefing today: many of the gathered journalists, economists and policymakers had decided that, for once, this wouldn’t be an exercise in spotting the Chancellor’s deceptions, because, quite simply, there aren’t many. And they could well be right. In his introductory remarks, Robert Chote, the director of the IFS, said that “the government is certainly to be congratulated for the transparency with which it presented [yesterday’s policy announcements].” What we’ve heard, so far, backs up that tribute. There will be an extra £50 billion of fiscal tightening by 2015; there is a 77-23 split between spending cuts and tax rises; and

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Huhne should’ve come out as gay

I’m not quite sure where I stand on the subject of Chris Huhne and his new weird-looking quasi-lesbo missus, Carina Trimingham. I don’t entirely understand why Huhne has copped so much flak for having left his wife, divorce – as I know – being a sort of occupational hazard of the modern middle classes. Huhne has been fingered, if you will excuse the phrase, for hypocrisy, in having made various pro-family statements both in the lead up to the last election and years before. But I never heard him say he that he wished to repeal the divorce laws, or that divorce was de facto wrong. I suppose you might

Peter Hoskin

Osborne winning the Budget PR battle – but VAT remains a thorny issue

Well, that’s gone as well as can be expected for the coalition.  Most of today’s newspaper coverage highlights the severity of George Osborne’s Budget – but, crucially, it adds that the Chancellor had few other options.  The Telegraph calls it a “brave Budget”.  The Times says that it delivers “the best of fiscal conservatism combined with no small measure of social justice”.  And even the FT – no friend of the Tories in recent years – suggests that Osborne might be “remembered for doing Britain a great service.” The sourest notes chime around the government’s welfare cuts and the hike in VAT.  Already, it’s clear that the latter will be

Tuesday

Ed Holmes

A credible start

Today’s Emergency Budget announced the most ambitious fiscal consolidation programme in decades.  It sets out a framework returning the government broadly to a state of fiscal solvency by 2014.  To do this, George Osborne announced a deficit reduction programme amounting to just over £100 billion in real terms – entirely in line with our recommendations.  The ratio of spending cuts to tax rises – 74:26 is largely in line with the international best practice model (which we also endorsed) of 80:20.   Instead of government living well beyond its means for the next four years, we estimate that the Chancellor’s plans will reduce the structural deficit – in other words,

Matthew Sinclair

Why must VAT rise? Because not enough will be cut

There is plenty of very good news in the Budget.  A two year public sector pay freeze, the abolition of the Child Trust Fund and cuts in welfare spending are all longstanding TPA recommendations that will be absolutely key to getting the public finances under control.  As a result of all the measures proposed, annual spending will be £31.9 billion lower than planned by 2014-15.   The Government are also scrapping more organisations.  The Emergency Budget report says (page 31) that “Regional Development Agencies will be abolished through the Public Bodies Bill.”  We called for their abolition as far back as August 2008 and the Spectator manifesto included a demand

Andrew Haldenby

Slice not structure

Two weeks ago, when launching the Spending Review, George Osborne called for a once-in-a-lifetime debate about the shape of government in the UK.  He implied that there is a right and a wrong way to cut the deficit.  It would be right to cut spending by addressing the structural causes of the deficit – i.e. public sector inefficiency and the UK’s unwillingness to cut its pensions and health entitlements.  It would be wrong to leave the shape of public services and welfare unchanged, but limit their costs temporarily – “salami slice” – with public sector pay freezes for instance.   Today George Osborne opted for the slice: a two year

Peter Hoskin

What Harriet Harman won’t tell you

By her usual standards, Harriet Harman was quite effective in her response to George Osborne’s Budget earlier.  She was clear, direct and had a few gags at Vince Cable’s expense.  And she also benefitted from what, on the surface, was a strong central attack: the Office for Budget Responsibility, she said, has downgraded its jobs forecasts on the back of the Budget.  And so, she followed, this is a Budget which destroys jobs. But there were a few things that Harman wasn’t letting on.  First, as Jim Pickard points out at the FT, the OBR forecasts haven’t shifted by all that much from their previous incarnation.  And, second, they are

Peter Hoskin

Unspectacular, but quite effective

Well, that was excitingly unexciting.  There was little in George Osborne’s Budget that we didn’t expect, either in terms of rhetoric or policy.  But it still felt new and different nonetheless.  Here we had a Chancellor setting out exactly how much spending he will cut, and putting plenty of emphasis on both our deficit and debt burdens.  It drew a stark contrast with the Brown years, and was a solidly understated performance in itself. There will be plenty of attention paid to the hike in VAT, and rightly so.  But there were some macroeconomic forecasts which were just as eyecatching.  In his address, Osborne suggested that the deficit on “current

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Osborne’s Finest Hour?

Like many people, I’ve rarely been wholly convinced by George Osborne. So let it be said that this budget was perhaps his finest hour. Happily, there is something for everyone to complain about. It would be wrong if this were not the case. I suppose Osborne could have avoided putting up VAT (to 20%) had he not exempted the National Health Service from the consequences of his axe-wielding. Politically, however, one can see why this was a gamble too far. Nevertheless, this was, on the face of it, a good budget. Four out of every five pounds in savings come from spending restraint, not tax rises and this seems to