Society Archives

Wednesday

23 Jun 2010

The McChrystal Affair

Yesterday there was some chatter that the smart thing would be for General Stanley McChrystal to offer his resignation but for President Barack Obama to decline it. That had the advantage of cuteness, but I’m not sure it was ever feasible and not least because, as best I can tell, the more military-minded an observer is the more certain they were that the general had to go. It is not, evidently, an ideal situation. Of course it isn’t, it’s Afghanistan. Nevertheless, from both a political and military perspective replacing McChrystal with General David Petraeus is as close to a win-win result as its possible to salvage from this clusterfuck brouhaha.

James Forsyth

McCrystal goes

NBC is reporting that President Obama has accepted General McChrystal’s resignation. McChrystal had offered it following the publication of a magazine profile in which him and his staff were reported deriding various members of the administration’s Afghan war effort. McChrystal’s own criticisms of the president were also part of the piece. The BBC is now saying that General Petraeus, the general who implemented the surge strategy in Iraq, will replace McChrystal. This suggests that McChrystal’s dismissal will not lead to a change in strategy. Although it remains to be seen whether Petraeus will stay as head of CentCom.

James Forsyth

Rudderless

Remarkable developments in Australian politics as the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd faces a leadership challenge tomorrow. Rudd is being challenged by his deputy PM Julia Gillard, who would be Australia’s first female PM. Gillard’s strategy might be to try and replicate Bob Hawke who was elected leader of the Australian Labour party and then went to the country almost immediately afterwards winning a convincing victory. The challenge has been triggered by Rudd going from a popular leader at the turn of the year to one who is in danger of losing office after just one term, the next election has to be held by April next year. Rudd has been

Peter Hoskin

How good intentions can be counterproductive

Might the coalition’s emphasis on fairness be making it harder to get people off welfare and into work? Not a question that I can answer with confidence, but certainly one which has been thrown up by the IFS’s Budget briefing. Take the government’s action on child tax credits, for instance. By increasing it at the lower end of the income distribution, and restricting it at the upper, some claimants now stand to lose more, more quickly, by moving up the income ladder. Or, as the IFS put it, their marginal effective rate of taxation has increased. Of course, this will have been offset by other measures such as the rise

Alex Massie

Facebook is Popular, So When Can We Start Banning It?

For those of you not watching the football (England 1-0 up at the moment, incidentally, and so just one blunder from being plunged back into the slough of despond) consider this question, asked by the Irish Labour MEP Nessa Childers: There has been an explosion in the usage of this online social networking tool across Europe: unfortunately many people have crossed the line from social networking to social dysfunction. This is a real health issue and I am calling upon the Commission to take action. Visiting your Facebook page frequently actually causes what psychologists refer to as ‘intermittent reinforcement’. Notifications, messages and invitations reward you with an unpredictable high, much

Peter Hoskin

IFS: there could be deeper cuts to come

An unfamiliar mood before the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Budget briefing today: many of the gathered journalists, economists and policymakers had decided that, for once, this wouldn’t be an exercise in spotting the Chancellor’s deceptions, because, quite simply, there aren’t many. And they could well be right. In his introductory remarks, Robert Chote, the director of the IFS, said that “the government is certainly to be congratulated for the transparency with which it presented [yesterday’s policy announcements].” What we’ve heard, so far, backs up that tribute. There will be an extra £50 billion of fiscal tightening by 2015; there is a 77-23 split between spending cuts and tax rises; and

Rod Liddle

Huhne should’ve come out as gay

I’m not quite sure where I stand on the subject of Chris Huhne and his new weird-looking quasi-lesbo missus, Carina Trimingham. I don’t entirely understand why Huhne has copped so much flak for having left his wife, divorce – as I know – being a sort of occupational hazard of the modern middle classes. Huhne has been fingered, if you will excuse the phrase, for hypocrisy, in having made various pro-family statements both in the lead up to the last election and years before. But I never heard him say he that he wished to repeal the divorce laws, or that divorce was de facto wrong. I suppose you might

Peter Hoskin

Osborne winning the Budget PR battle – but VAT remains a thorny issue

Well, that’s gone as well as can be expected for the coalition. Most of today’s newspaper coverage highlights the severity of George Osborne’s Budget – but, crucially, it adds that the Chancellor had few other options. The Telegraph calls it a “brave Budget”. The Times says that it delivers “the best of fiscal conservatism combined with no small measure of social justice”. And even the FT – no friend of the Tories in recent years – suggests that Osborne might be “remembered for doing Britain a great service.” The sourest notes chime around the government’s welfare cuts and the hike in VAT. Already, it’s clear that the latter will be

Tuesday

22 Jun 2010

Ed Holmes

A credible start

Today’s Emergency Budget announced the most ambitious fiscal consolidation programme in decades. It sets out a framework returning the government broadly to a state of fiscal solvency by 2014. To do this, George Osborne announced a deficit reduction programme amounting to just over £100 billion in real terms – entirely in line with our recommendations. The ratio of spending cuts to tax rises – 74:26 is largely in line with the international best practice model (which we also endorsed) of 80:20. Instead of government living well beyond its means for the next four years, we estimate that the Chancellor’s plans will reduce the structural deficit – in other words,

Matthew Sinclair

Why must VAT rise? Because not enough will be cut

There is plenty of very good news in the Budget. A two year public sector pay freeze, the abolition of the Child Trust Fund and cuts in welfare spending are all longstanding TPA recommendations that will be absolutely key to getting the public finances under control. As a result of all the measures proposed, annual spending will be £31.9 billion lower than planned by 2014-15. The Government are also scrapping more organisations. The Emergency Budget report says (page 31) that “Regional Development Agencies will be abolished through the Public Bodies Bill.” We called for their abolition as far back as August 2008 and the Spectator manifesto included a demand

Andrew Haldenby

Slice not structure

Two weeks ago, when launching the Spending Review, George Osborne called for a once-in-a-lifetime debate about the shape of government in the UK. He implied that there is a right and a wrong way to cut the deficit. It would be right to cut spending by addressing the structural causes of the deficit – i.e. public sector inefficiency and the UK’s unwillingness to cut its pensions and health entitlements. It would be wrong to leave the shape of public services and welfare unchanged, but limit their costs temporarily – “salami slice” – with public sector pay freezes for instance. Today George Osborne opted for the slice: a two year

Peter Hoskin

What Harriet Harman won’t tell you

By her usual standards, Harriet Harman was quite effective in her response to George Osborne’s Budget earlier. She was clear, direct and had a few gags at Vince Cable’s expense. And she also benefitted from what, on the surface, was a strong central attack: the Office for Budget Responsibility, she said, has downgraded its jobs forecasts on the back of the Budget. And so, she followed, this is a Budget which destroys jobs. But there were a few things that Harman wasn’t letting on. First, as Jim Pickard points out at the FT, the OBR forecasts haven’t shifted by all that much from their previous incarnation. And, second, they are

Peter Hoskin

Unspectacular, but quite effective

Well, that was excitingly unexciting. There was little in George Osborne’s Budget that we didn’t expect, either in terms of rhetoric or policy. But it still felt new and different nonetheless. Here we had a Chancellor setting out exactly how much spending he will cut, and putting plenty of emphasis on both our deficit and debt burdens. It drew a stark contrast with the Brown years, and was a solidly understated performance in itself. There will be plenty of attention paid to the hike in VAT, and rightly so. But there were some macroeconomic forecasts which were just as eyecatching. In his address, Osborne suggested that the deficit on “current

Alex Massie

Osborne’s Finest Hour?

Like many people, I’ve rarely been wholly convinced by George Osborne. So let it be said that this budget was perhaps his finest hour. Happily, there is something for everyone to complain about. It would be wrong if this were not the case. I suppose Osborne could have avoided putting up VAT (to 20%) had he not exempted the National Health Service from the consequences of his axe-wielding. Politically, however, one can see why this was a gamble too far. Nevertheless, this was, on the face of it, a good budget. Four out of every five pounds in savings come from spending restraint, not tax rises and this seems to

James Forsyth

The old politics

The first Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions was the worst of the old politics. I’m all in favour of robust exchanges in the Commons but the Labour side was just shouting at Clegg today. As he was answering one question — and, I mean, actually answering — on Sheffield Forgemasters, one Labour MP tried to drown him out with cries of traitor. Although, I thought the question about whether Clegg could help Crimestoppers with the whereabouts of the fugitive Lib Dem donor Michael Brown was delivered with wit. One thing worth noting is that the soft-ball questions to Clegg came from Tory—not Lib Dem—backbenchers. I was also struck by how

Alex Massie

Death by Taser: Coming to a Street Near You

Meanwhile, in other police news, Coppers in Birmingham are being armed with Tasers as a matter of course. Until recently, only firearms officers were so equipped. Sadly, this means that it’s only a matter of time before someone is killed by one of these things. That’s what happens when you start flinging 50,000 volt charges about. This isn’t a question of if but of when. It will happen. What’s more, I strongly suspect that handing more weapons – even of the supposedly non-lethal type – actually makes everyone less safe. When the police are encouraged to think of themselves as paramilitaries then we shouldn’t be surprised when they start acting

Alex Massie

Another Disgraceful Prosecution

Like the Devil’s Kitchen, I’m late getting to this story travesty. The most enraging aspect of it is, of course, that one can no longer be surprised by this kind of behaviour. Yet again the police and the criminal justice system prove themselves out of touch with common sense or decency. A grandmother has been jailed for five years for possessing a “family heirloom” World War II pistol. Gail Cochrane, 53, had kept the gun for 29 years following the death of her father, who had been in the Royal Navy. Police found the weapon, a Browning self-loading pistol, during a search of her home in Dundee while looking for

Alex Massie

Heroic Journalism

I am a great admirer of John Rentoul’s series of Questions to Which the Answer is No and recommend it to you without hesitation. Until today, however, I had not known of the inspiration for this splendid feature. Discovering that it all began with the Daily Mail is no great surprise and could anything really be more perfect than the question* that Rentoul picked to begin this valuable series: There is, I submit, something almost heroic about this and the minds capable of producing such dizzying leaps of logic. It is magnificent. *As is often the case, the online version isn’t quite as good.

Monday

21 Jun 2010

James Forsyth

Clegg gets his retaliation in first

Nick Clegg has written to his MPs and party members trying to stiffen their sinews ahead of the Budget. The message is, yes this will be unpleasant, but it’s Labour’s fault—and they shouldn’t be allowed to forget that as they rail against it. It ends with this very David Cameron-esque sign-off, ‘Sorting out Labour’s mess will be difficult but it is the right thing to do.’ Tomorrow, will be the biggest test by far of the Coalition and Lib Dem support for it. Will we see Lib Dem MPs waving their order papers as Osborne sits down, will they have the stomach to cheer such a tough Budget? Tory MPs

Ed Holmes

Why a public sector pensions levy makes sense

Today’s papers are awash with stories that a public sector pensions levy will be announced in tomorrow Emergency Budget. Trade unions have already issued dire warnings, ranging from the PCS’s promise to “organise the widest possible popular opposition,” to Bob Crow of the RMT’s rather prosaic: “when someone’s winding up to give you a kicking you have a clear choice — you can either take them on right from the off or you can roll over and hope that they go away.” Public sector workers, however, should not be so dismissive. In our report, released on Friday, we argue for an “Irish style” graduated public pensions levy of 7.5