Society

James Forsyth

You know things are bad…

When a denial elicits this headline: “No 10 denies naked Gordon Brown called aide C-word” What is in and not in Andrew Ranwsley’s new book, which The Observer starts serialising this Sunday, is the talk of Westminster. There’s much speculation about whether the stories that were in the Mail on Sunday a few weeks back—including the one referenced in the headline about Brown sitting on his bed in his underpants on a trip to New York and summoning his aides to berate them for the Obama snubs Brown stories that were appearing in the British press—are the book’s main revelations or not. The theory doing the rounds at the moment

Mossad’s suspected actions in Dubai may be a crime, but will they help Israel?

One of Israel’s most potent weapons has been the mixture of awe and fear with which its spy services are held. Now that Mossad is suspected of killing Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai, and using fraudulent British passports in the process, newspapers will dredge up stories about the Entebbe Raid, the killing of Black September by Mossad agents and other daring-do acts. The other reaction to the suspected assasination of the arm-smuggling Hamas official will be indignation about the extra-judicial nature of Israel’s action. But these made-for-Hollywood stories and the West’s moral indignation mask some uncomfortable truths. That Mossad, its domestic equivalent Shin Bet and Israeli commandoes are bureaucratic organisations. Like

The changing face of English football

As Fraser said earlier, we’ve got a great piece by Mihir Bose in the latest issue of the mag on British football’s debt crisis.  I would normally say that non-football fans should look away now, but the story is so redolent of the entire financial crisis that it’s worth any CoffeeHouser’s time.  What you’ll find is a tale of big clubs, big egos and even bigger debts – the latter running into billions of pounds. Much of this debt has been down to financial brinkmanship on the part of football club owners and chairmen.  Even though money has been pouring into the English game from global television deals and the

Can it get much worse than this?

£4.3bn in the red, that is the gruesome fact of the government’s January accounts. Never before has the government borrowed money in January, usually a month of surplus as self-assessed income and corporation tax receipts line government coffers. Analysts forecast a surplus of £2.8bn, denoting just how bad the situation is. This is an exact copy of last July’s accounts, lending weight to the analysis that Britain’s recovery is slow and very precarious, an analysis confirmed by the weakest mortgage lending figures for ten years. Obviously tax revenues have collapsed. Mass redundancy, pay cuts and two years of heavy losses across the economy have decimated real incomes, making creeping inflation

Fraser Nelson

Highlights from the latest Spectator

The new issue of The Spectator is out today, and here are a few highlights. We’ve led on football, for once, with cover image by Mark Summers of David Beckham in the England away strip. Here are my top five features: 1. The very strange death of English Football. Mihir Bose, former BBC Sports Editor, has written about the weird paradox gripping the game: the Premiership is a global business, but half its clubs are insolvent. The cash is not only driving many of them (like Portsmouth) to the wall, but driving out English players. Just 17 percent of players who have appeared in this year’s Premiership are British under-25s.

Alex Massie

Photo of the Day | 18 February 2010

Family visiting = a few days off from blogging. Normal service to resume soon. Meanwhile, this is the view looking west down the Loch of the Lowes in Selkirkshire. This is James Hogg country and the Ettrick Shepherd is the subject of a memorial statue on the hillside above the loch.

James Forsyth

What the markets are banking on

Hamish McRae’s column today contains news of a warning that I had not seen reported elsewhere: ‘The capital markets division of Royal Bank of Canada yesterday put out a ranking of sovereign risk – the risk that a country cannot repay its debts. Ireland and Greece came at the top, as you might expect, followed by Portugal and … yes, the UK. On that ranking we are more of a risk than Italy, France and Spain. That is just the view of one bank but it echoes those of others in the business of advising savers around the world of the risks of investing in different countries.’ My concern is

An early warning system for healthcare

Every few years we unearth another hospital scandal in which we discover, all too late, that many patients have needlessly died.  On the face of it there is no common theme to these failures: the bug clostridium dificille at Stoke Mandeville, possibly similar infections at Maidstone & Tunbridge Wells; emergency admissions at Mid-Staffordshire, and possibly poor hygiene at Basildon & Thurrock. But, as The Sun points out today, it seems that the Department of Health was warned in the strongest terms about flaws in the healthcare oversight mechanism. It is astounding that there is no system of performance improvement in the NHS.  But suppose there was. If we could, say,

Purnell’s ‘empowerment’ pledge falls flat

James Purnell envisages a society of ‘empowered’ voters left to make decisions for themselves. It is an attractive concept – individual responsibility displacing state directives will save money and, providing those running the institutions are competent, improve public services. Writing in the Times, Purnell acknowledges that these concepts can become lost in the abstract terms in which they are expressed. What a pity he didn’t take his own advice – his article is an extended abstract noun. Not that it’s all bad. What power is there for parents who can’t afford to move close to a good school, he asks. His answer is broadly similar in tone and substance to

James Forsyth

Cameron’s big idea–in his own words

The transparency agenda is one of the most exciting things about the Cameron project but it is an idea that is hard to explain. But David Cameron’s speech to TED last week—video above, is the best expression of it that we have had yet. When you think about the changes Cameron is proposing—publishing government spending and contracts online—you realise that these changes will never be reversed. Just imagine the fuss if a future government announced it was suddenly going to make all government contracts secret. These changes along with the other government data that Cameron is proposing to publish will also empower citizens against the state. People will be able

Short term or long term inflation?

The news that the CPI rose to 3.5 percent doesn’t seem to have affected the markets, but the cost of living is soaring. Mervyn King has written to Alistair Darling predicting that inflation will fall back to the benchmark 2 percent over the course of the year, and that the current explosion is a result of short term factors such as the restored VAT rate, a 70 percent rise in oil prices and the depreciation of sterling. David Blanchflower is right: inflation may eat a little of Brown’s debt mountain and it will help those who now hold negative equities on houses. But it does precious little else that is

Fraser Nelson

Cutting it with the Fink

I couldn’t let today pass without a response to Danny Finkelstein. We do agree on the ends, but not the means. And, as he says, this debate mirrors one about the methods of reform. So, let¹s go through his points. 1. ‘I am afraid I think Fraser overestimates (a lot) how politically difficult this is all going to be. And how personally painful for a lot of people. And how technically difficult.’ Painful, yes, but necessary ­ and it will be resented if Cameron is not straight about the cuts he will have to make. But how painful? Gordon Brown¹s great intellectual victory is to persuade the Tories that ‘cuts’

The new AfPak strategy in action – decapitation, reintegration and reconciliation (DRR)

It’s not quite the “we got him” moment, as when US soldiers unearthed the fugitive Iraqi dictator. But the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a top militant commander who is said to be second in command to elusive Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Mohhamad Omar, may be even more significant. By the time Saddam Hussein had been caught, the US was fighting a different enemy, though the Pentagon leadership had not realised yet. Baradar, who was in charge of the insurgency’s day-to-day operations on behalf of the so-called Quetta Shura, the Taliban’s leadership council, is very much today’s enemy – and his seizure should not be underestimated. Doubts remain as

It’s what comes after Operation Moshtarak that matters

Fighting is now well under way in southern Afghanistan, as NATO forces are executing Operation Moshtarak. The plan is aimed at shoring up security around Kandahar city and recapturing the remaining Taliban strongholds in Chah-e-Anjir, Western Babaji, Trek Narwa and Marjah in Helmand province, though the latter is getting all the publicity. The operation has been billed as “NATO’s biggest” and a “test” of the new counter-insurgency policy, designed to first eradicate militants and, then, follow up re-establish government control and civil services. These claims may have been exaggerated for effect. Operation Medusa in 2006 was a big battle (and one that NATO almost lost), while the forward deployment of

Turbo-charged fiscal crises

The crisis in Greece shows just how quickly a fiscal crisis can blow up. Just two-and-a-half weeks ago, Greece was able to raise several billions in financing, with demand for almost 25 billion of their debt in an auction. The very next day, their bond market collapsed and the rout began. Just ten days later, they were turning up in Brussels with a begging bowl, and inviting the European Commission and IMF to Athens to start making their tax and spending decisions. There can be nothing worse for a government than having your economic policy dictated by the markets, and then other governments, as access to finance disapears. All you

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 15 February – 21 February

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – providing your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local

The politics of Osborne’s co-ops

There’s plenty of buzz this morning about George Osborne’s new policy proposal: allowing public sector workers to run schools, job-centres, hospitals and other services as cooperatives. James Crabtree, Tim Montgomerie and Spectator.co.uk’s very own Martin Bright have exhaustive posts on why this might work in practice. It is, as they all suggest, pretty radical stuff.   But it’s also clever politics.  It is something which appeals directly to people on the left (like Martin), as well as public sector workers.  When so much of the Tories central “post-bureaucratic” agenda is about decentralising power from the government to individuals or to private enterprise, this says that the public sector won’t be

James Forsyth

Tories put the decimal point in the wrong place

The Tories are facing embarrassment tonight after a document they released claim that 54 percent of young women under 18 in poor areas get pregnant when the actual number is 5.4 percent. It is easy to see how a mistake like this is made but it is still damaging and made more so by the fact that it gives Labour the opportunity to claim, as they are doing tonight, that the mistake shows that the Tories have no idea how the country actually lives.

James Forsyth

Brown and Piers

Those who follow politics closely will watch Gordon Brown’s interview tonight with Piers Morgan knowing that Alastair Campbell prepped him for it, that Piers Morgan is a long time friend of Brown and that Brown finally agreed to be interviewed by Morgan as part of “the run-up to the election”, and that Brown once criticised Cameron in the most personal terms for his willingness to open up about his family life. But the audience for what Brown is doing tonight aren’t those who follow politics closely but rather those wouldn’t watch a traditional political interview. Its effectiveness will have to be judged through that prism. As I said last weekend,